In this boxing betting pick, we look at Wednesday’s main event between Goodman and Mepranum. We’ll show you a detailed breakdown of the available stats, a look at the odds, and offer a boxing analysis to support our betting pick.
Story of the Fight
This Super Bantamweight bout is for the vacant WBO Oriental Super Bantam title as the undefeated Sam Goodman looks to defeat Richie Mepranum in a ten round contest.
Boxing will take place December 22nd, 2021 at the Star Event Centre in Sydney, available on ESPN+.
Richie has won five of his last six, sporting three KOs versus varied levels of opponents. Sam has knocked out five of his competitors, ranking #1 in Australia. Sam has the home field advantage and the crowd will be definitively on the side of their local fighter. This is Richie’s third attempt at a title, winning one to gain his title as the current WBO Oriental Flyweight Champ.
Tale of the Tape for
|Fighter||Sam Goodman||Richie Mepranum|
|Knockouts||5, 55%||11, 24%|
|Inactivity||189 Days||54 Days|
|Super Bantam||Super Bantam|
Sam is climbing the ranks slightly faster than Richie, fighting slightly more seasoned boxers and refusing to lose as he steps up in competition. Sam has the height advantage, but we were unable to confirm his reach.
The differences in experience are staggering. Richie has eleven years on the kid, an additional 36 professional bouts and nearly eight times as many rounds. Richie’s been a pro since 2005, compared to Sam’s debut in 2018.
Betting Odds for Goodman vs Mepranum
These odds now available at Betonline.ag
|Bet||Odds and Payout per Dollar Wager|
|Sam Goodman Money Line||-1600, $0.06|
|Richie Mepranum Money Line||+800, $8.00|
|Over 6 ½ Rounds||-115, $0.87|
|Under 6 ½ Rounds||-115, $0.87|
Sam Goodman is a strong favorite, and his record of knock outs in half of his fight’s make it tough to pick a prop if we didn’t have a close understanding of his opponent history.
There's a reason why those in the know rate Sam Goodman so highly.
— Aus-Boxing.com (@ausboxing) November 25, 2019
Goodman has scored five of his knockout finishes over his last six bouts, but it’s important to note almost none of these boxers are on Richie’s level. Three of these boxers had under ten fights and had already racked up losses and draws.
The biggest knock against Richie is how many times he’s been knocked out. His knockout losses have happened in rounds two through ten, making it difficult to select an over under victory. I’m leaning toward the over, especially considering Carlos Cuadras, a boxer with 27 KOs and a 61% knockout percentage eight rounds to close the show.
After we look at the fight tape, you’ll see more reasons that the over prop looks right.
Boxing Analysis for Goodman vs Mepranum
Goodman is light on his feet and keeps a long jab. Look for his whipping left hook to the body and rear hook to land knockout blows. Goodman’s stance and hand position are traditional, and his pull counter is indicative of the Australian style of amatuer boxing.
Mepranum shells up often to absorb blows, and offers turn- based exchanging. He’ll wait until an opponent is done punching to come at him. As a result, pressure fighters who can keep up striking round after round tend to give Richie little time to work.
Richie has solid offensive striking, and if he got the right defensive boxing coach, he could win this fight against Goodman.
Currently, there are no relevant Compubox stats for either fighter. Let’s look at some fight tape analysis instead.
Mepranum vs Cuadras
Cuadras wins this 2016 bout by knockout, but Richie brings the heat in the first few rounds. Cuadras is the bigger man, and physically moves Mepranum around with punches and clinches.
Mepranum gets crafty in this one, holding and catching Cuadras’ gloves to set up big return shots. Richie goes to the body early, and may have won the fight if he could have mounted even the most fundamental head movement.
Sam Goodman vs Ram Anuj
Both boxers were undefeated coming into this bout and it’s arguably Sam’s toughest test to date. Anuj is lacking, and Richie will be a much tougher opponent. Goodman does a fantastic job of entering and exiting the pocket. He uses footwork to sit outside of range while he’s tired, and jabs his way into combinations when it’s time to go.
However, this strategy won’t fly versus Richie. Richie wants that dead air, and will close space the moment Sam stops working in order to land shots.
After watching these two bouts back to back, I think we’ll see a long fight.
Goodman vs Mepranum Boxing Pick Wrap Up
If this boxing pick feels hard to follow, start here. As an analyst, I’m always looking for opportunities to bet the prop when it feels right. In MMA, we call about 70% of our prop calls correctly. Boxing has had a season of upsets, and as more fighters struggle to stay relevant in the face of celebrity boxing and competing promotions, I think we’ll see more KOs and aggressive boxing across the board.