Lomachenko vs Commey Fight Betting Picks, Odds and Props, and Expert Analysis

In our Lomachenko vs Commey Betting pick, we’re detailing the stats, the betting odds, and why we selected our top pick for this bout. Scroll to see the stats in support of our betting pick, and a deeper look at the odds for risky but lucrative bets. 
This Saturday, December 11th, 2021, Lomachenko takes on Commey at Madison Square Garden, only on ESPN. The bout is put on by DAZN fights at 11PM ET. 

Story of the Fight

After losing his titles to Teofimo Lopes, Lomachenko jumped right back into fight camp. He bounced back just eight months later with a win over 19-1 Masayoshi Nakatani in a 9th round TKO. Now he’s set to face Commey six months later. 
Commey shares a similar story, and was on a five fight tear before his loss to Teofimo Lopez in the second round. Commey took a year off and defeated 19-1 Jackson Marinez by TKO in the sixth. Commey and Loma lost to the same fighter, bounced back with knockout wins over quality prospects. One fighter will win this bout and prove they deserve to face Davis, Kambosos, or rematch Teofimo. 
The odds are in Lomachenko’s favor, with many fans agreeing that this will be a heavily one sided bout. 

Betting Picks Available, Odds and Payouts for Lomachenko vs Commey

Betting Pick Odds and Payout per Dollar Wagered 
Richard Commey Money Line +500, $5.00
Vasyl Lomachenko Money Line -800, $0.13
Over 9 ½ Rounds  +115, $1.15
Under 9 ½ Rounds  -145, $0.69

Loma is a heavy favorite, and a Commey win pays out five times your money. As of December 7th,, major betting sites have only these four betting choices available, though it’s likely many other bets, such as round calls and method of victory betting, will appear before fight night. 

Money Line Betting for Lomachenko vs Commey 

Loma is our betting pick for this bout. His performances against champion level fighters have been greater than Commey’s and his boxing percentages, such as landing percentage, are much higher quality. 
Still, that five to one on a fighter like Commey is enticing. If you’re going to place a Commey bet, look to keep it small. Occasionally, I’ll place a long shot bet simply because I’m a fan. Many analysts say this fight depends on ‘Which Commey shows up.’ This has more to do with his coaching than anything, more on that in the Tale of the Tape. I don’t see Commey winning and I’d avoid this long shot if you’re not a fan.

Prop Betting on Lomachenko vs Commey

Currently, the Over/Under 9 ½ Rounds prop is the only one available at betonline.ag or Betus.com. 

Betting the Over

Of their last five bouts, Lomachneko and Commey show a combined three bouts over the 9 ½ round mark, and all of them belong to Lomachenko. 
Lomachenko went the distance with Lopez, Luke Campbell, and Jose Pedraza. The only question for me is; does Commey come in at these fighters level? Commey lost quickly to Teofimo Lopez. The only other fighter in Commey’s last ten at that same level is Raymundo Beltran, one of Commey’s better showings ever. 
If I were betting the over, I would have to be convinced that Commey has leveled up defensively from his fight with Teofimo, and his six round win over Jackson Marinez showed a good fight, but not a sea change of improvement. 

Betting the Under

Commey’s last five have all ended in TKO, including his one loss to Lopez. One of these bouts was a second round TKO against 24-10 Yardley Cruz. Commey hasn’t been tested at the level of Lomachenko, but 27 KOs of 30 wins doesn’t lie- Commey is looking to finish. 
Of Lomachenko’s last six, he’s seen three decisions. Campbell had never before been knocked out, and Pedraza had only been knocked out by Gervonta Davis. It’s clear both men have solid chins. 
While Lomachenko is coming to win more than he’s coming to finish, Commey’s aggression will push the fight. I see an early night, and second to the Lomachenko moneyline, the Under 9 ½  Rounds prop is the most lucrative bet I’m willing to put money on. I’d double down on the under before I took a Commey money line.  

Tale of the Tape for Lomachenko vs Commey 

Fighter Vasyl 
Age 33 34
Height 5’7’’ 5’8’’
Reach 65’’ 71’’
Total Fights 17 33
Record 15-2 30-3
Knockouts 11, 64% 27, 81%
Stance Southpaw Orthodox
152 179
Inactivity  168 Days  301 Days 

Weight class

Light Light 
Boxing Coach Anatoly Lomachenko Andre Rozier, Carl Lokko

Commey takes the height and reach advantage, with Loma being a year younger. He also has a 17% greater knockout percentage, going back to his penchant for aggression and ending fights early, win or lose. Commey has been less active over the last couple of years, taking more time off since his last bout, and resting all of 2020. 

Comparing the Fighters’ Coaching

Anatoly is Vasyl’s father, and has been his trainer his whole career and truly, his whole life. Loma was raised to be a fighter. There are legends about the time he’s spent learning to dance ballet (under his fathers guidance) to develop footwork. The training is strange, and often involves something like brain speed games and foot placement accuracy. 

Commey has had two major coaches over the past decade. His current coach is Andre Rozier, and his other is Carl Lokko. Andre Rozier is his trainer in Ghana. Andre built fighters like Daniel Jacobs. He’s struggled to keep high level champions, though he has worked with many of them. Lokko was with Commey from around age 13 to 30. These seventeen years produced an entirely different kind of aggression and headspace than what we’ve seen for the last few fights.
I see Lokko as a specific kind of coach, one that convinced Commey to stay in the gym and resist using his money to travel. Now, we see Commey all over the world, taking part in charity events and capitalizing off his Ghannian celebrity. It doesn’t bode well for his performance against Lomachenko. 

Compox Stat Comparison vs Teofimo Lopez and Last Bout

To hammer home the Lomachenko pick, take a closer look at  the Lopez fight versus both men. You’ll see Lopez’s stats against Lomachenko and Commey. 

Fighter Vasyl Lomachenko Richard Commey 
Lopez Punches Landed  183 43
Lopez Punches Absorbed  141 13
Lopez Rounds Won/Lost  8/4 2/0
Lopez Jabs Landed/Absorbed  35/63 5/11

The differences here are heavily noticeable. It goes beyond a lucky shot, Lopez outclassed Commey just two years ago. We didn’t see a massive dedication to improving his boxing from Commey, and Lomachenko came into this next fight looking better than ever.  

Lomachenko vs Nakatani and Commey vs Marinez 

Here we have a look at each fighter’s last bout. Let’s see how they fared against their 19-1 opponents.

Fighter Vasyl Lomachenko, Wins via 9th Round KO Richard Commey, Wins via 6th Round TKO 
Opponent Punches Landed  29 64
Opponent Punches Absorbed  104 60
Opponent Rounds Won/Lost  0/9 4/2
Opponent Jabs Landed/Absorbed  3/15 13/14

Lomachenko’s performance was absolutely stunning. He dominated the bout. Commey however was losing the fight on paper leading up to his TKO win. He was getting out punched, and while one judge had the fight for Commey, the punch stats show him losing four of the six rounds. 

Lomachenko vs Commey Betting Pick Wrap Up 

We looked at every angle for this betting pick. Part of me saw the Commey five times odds and worked to ensure that I wasn’t missing out on an upset from Commey, but the fight stats don’t add up. 
If you liked this pick and want to dive deeper, check out our boxing betting guide

Jacob Clark / Author

Jacob Clark had a 15 year career as a professional MMA fighter, coach, and Greg Jackson’s alum. Now, TikTok’s 12th most important BJJ influencer is bringing his sports and betting knowledge to you here at TheSportsGeek. He spends his time cooking vietnamese food and playing D&D with his family. You can meet him at jiu-jitsu open mats all over Indiana.

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