Marcus Browne vs Artur Beterbiev Betting Pick, Latest Odds, and Boxing Analysis

In this Browne vs Beterbiev betting pick, we’ll analyze the fight tape and compubox stats of both fighters, look over the latest odds, and produce our top bet for the Championship  bout. While we selected our safest bet, look at the odds table for an over/under and a more lucrative but risky prop wager.  

Story of the Fight

This boxing match is for the light heavyweight WBC and IBF titles, both held by Artur Beterbiev. In 2019, Browne lost his WBC Silver and WBA interim titles to Jean Pascal. Now he gets a shot at another two belts versus the nearly unstoppable Beterbiev. 
This Friday, December 17th, 2021 at Bell Centre in Montreal, Canada, ESPN+ is delivering a night of great boxing headlined by the title fight, a twelve  round contest at the top of an eight fight card. 

Tale of the Tape for Browne vs Beterbiev

Fighter  Marcus Browne  Artur Beterbiev 
Ranking  #8 #2
Age 31 36
Height 6’1’’ 5’11’’
Reach 75’’ 73’’
Total Fights 25 16
Record 24-1 16-0
Knockouts 16, 64% 16, 100%
Stance Southpaw  Orthodox 
113  72
Inactivity  243 Days  273 Days 
Weight class
Light Heavyweight  Light Heavyweight 
Boxing trainer  Gary Stark Sr. Marc Ramsay 

Artur is smaller, older and less experienced as a pro than Browne. He’s put only 65% of the career rounds, but his knockout percentage is his ace in the hole. No one has been able to survive his power. 

Comparing the Fighters Trainers

Stark Sr. has coached his son, Stark Jr. to the Bantamweight title in 2006. He’s been with Browne since before the 2012 Olympics. Stark senior has coached few other notable fighters, but has put together a quality gym with multiple olympians. 
Marc Ramsay is the Canadian Olympic coach. He’s worked with Beterbiev, Mbilli, Bazinyan and Akhmedov- all high profile light heavyweight boxers. He also produced several camps for Jean Pascal, the fighter who defeated Browne just two years ago. 
I’d say Beterbiev has the coaching advantage, especially considering Ramsay’s involvement with Pascal and his win over Browne. 

Betting Odds for Brown vs Beterbiev

Bet Odds and Payout per Dollar Wager
Marcus Brown Money Line +700, $7.00
Artur Beterbiev Money Line -1250, $0.08
Over 8 ½ Rounds -125, $0.80
Under 8 ½ Rounds  +105, $1.05

Our pick Beterbiev delivers eight cents per dollar, or $8 per hundred dollars wagered. 

Fighter Odds History

Artur has fallen between -105 against amatuer rival Oleksandr Gvozdyk and -5500 to Ezequiel Maderna. Over the last five years he’s fluctuated nearly five-thousand points, but never been the underdog. His bout against the undefeated (at the time of bout) Callum Johnson put him at -1165 closing odds to Callum’s +750. This is very similar to this bout versus Browne. 
Browne was -1800 in his only loss to Jean Pascal. His last time as an underdog was against Badou Jack, a fight he won via unanimous decision. Browne has been the tougher of the two to predict correctly, but only by a small margin. 

Props Available for Browne vs Beterbiev

The 8 ½ Round marks the over under at and other offshore betting sites. 
In Beterbiev’s last five he finished two opponents prior to the 8th and three after. In Browne’s only loss he was knocked out in the eighth round. This is a tough fight to call the over under. Pascal has 29 KOs, totalling a 46% knockout percentage.
Beterbiev has the tendency to outperform the tougher the opponent. Callum looked undefeatable, and Artur beat him in four rounds. I see Browne as slightly protected, and I think the under8 ½ Rounds prop is the better bet. 

Boxing Analysis for Beterbiev vs Browne

Now we look at some compubox stats and fight tape for both fighters to take one last look at any outlier outcomes that might throw off our bet. 

Relevant Compubox Stats for Artur Beterbiev

All fights went to the undefeated Beterbiev. 

Fighter and Outcome  Punches Landed (Beterbiev) Punches Absorbed  Outcome
Deines 159/560 77/402 10th Round TKO
Gvozdyk 161/515 118/614 10th Round TKO
Kalajdzic 99/295 50/189 5th Round KO
Johnson 81/249 31/123 4th Round KO

Arutr has put down his toughest challengers, outlanding nearly everyone 2:1. 

Against Callum Johnson, the fighter with the closest odds history to Browne, Beterbiev landed nearly three times as many strikes and seven times as many jabs.
Across his last five fights, each of Artur’s opponents have been inside the top twenty fighters. Browne was fighting nearly unranked athletes just seven bouts ago. 

Relevant Compubox Stats for Marcus Browne

Fighter and Outcome  Punches Landed (Browne) Punches Absorbed  Outcome
Jean Pascal 106/276 51/264 8th Round TKO for Jean Pascal
Badou Jack 145/515 66/303 12 Round UD Browne
Lenin 98/419 27/244 10th Round TKO Browne
Francy Ntetu 18/40 0/8 1st Round TKO Browne

In 2018, Browne was still facing off against feeder opponents like Ntetu, a fighter who’s seventeen wins were over opponent’s losing records and unproven amatuer careers. Browne’s rise has been tested lightly, and the win over Badou Jack proved that he could hang with the world’s best. 

Badou had a rough round eight, landing three punches to Browne’s 23, turning the fight and sacrificing the remaining four rounds to Browne. Browne proved himself a gamesman, and if the older Beterbiev’s cardio gives up in the later rounds, Browne will find a way to capitalize and outpoint the champion. 
Beterviev tends to increase in intensity after the first four rounds, and averages his highest volume of strikes in rounds 4 through 8. 

Beterbiev vs Browne Boxing Pick Wrap Up

There have been some stunning upsets recently in the world of combat sports, but Beterbiev strikes me as a particularly safe bet. 
His 100% knockout ratio isn’t due to any kind of blind dedication to swinging for the fences. He’s developed a jab heavy, methodical pressure fighting game that drives fighters to bad exchanges with him, catching them with tight hooks and clean, short strikes. 
I hope to see Beterbiev win this bout and pressure for title unification. What do you think? Let us know in the box below and we’ll send you some sweet betting tips. 

Jacob Clark / Author

Jacob Clark had a 15 year career as a professional MMA fighter, coach, and Greg Jackson’s alum. Now, TikTok’s 12th most important BJJ influencer is bringing his sports and betting knowledge to you here at TheSportsGeek. He spends his time cooking vietnamese food and playing D&D with his family. You can meet him at jiu-jitsu open mats all over Indiana.

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