The rematch is on for the WBC world light flyweight title, and we’ve organized the odds and crunched the stats and odds for Masamichi Yabuki vs. Kenshiro Teraji II, an immediate rematch for the once undefeated boxing prodigy. Bets must be placed before March 19th, 1:00 AM ET as the fight is taking place in Kyoto, Japan. Our betting pick for Masamichi Yabuki vs. Kenshiro Teraji was a close call. Will it be a repeat of fight one, and can we count on another Yabuki finish?
Masamichi Yabuki vs. Kenshiro Teraji II Betting Pick
Masamichi’s money line pays better than Over/Under props. His performance in fight one showed that he’s more than capable of outboxing the best the WBC has to offer. He won the fight definitively and took Teraji’s best shots along the way. I see back to back losses for the once undefeated champion.
Story of the Fight
These two fighters are the #1 and #2 in the light fly division. Teraji was the favorite, set to win at -1600 over Yabuki. Yabuki had other plans, winning six of the ten rounds before finishing Teraji by referee stoppage after unanswered strikes and two knockdowns.
Yabuki originally won the Japanese WBC title from Tsuyoshi Sato in 2020, a fight he ended via first round TKO. Teraji looked to unify, bringing his WBC title he won from Gangian Lopez in 2017. This was to be Teraji’s ninth defense of the title.
Now, Teraji looks to reclaim the title he worked so hard to defend, and Yabuki looks to bottle lightning twice with another upset win.
Tale of the Tape for Yabuki vs. Teraji II
|Fighter||Masamichi Yabuki||Kenshiro Teraji|
|Reach||65 ½”||64 ½“|
|Knockouts||12, 75%||10, 52%|
|Inactivity||178 Days||178 Days|
|Light fly||Light fly|
|Boxing trainer||Midori Gym||Shinsei Gym|
Yabuki’s inch of height and reach played to his advantage, especially when catching Teraji on the retreat in their first fight. Teraji has fought less total rounds, but has established a better KO percentage. He appeared to have more power than Teraji, swiping through his gloves with ease and repeatedly breaking the former champion’s guard.
Critics say Teraji should use his experience to take Yabuki to deep water, but as the fight went on Yabuki’s aggression helped to finish the fight, not bring Teraji closer to victory.
Comparing the Fighters Trainers
Hasashi Teraji is Kenshiro’s father, a trainer that was frustrated with the referee failing to see headbutt attempts in fight one from Yabuki. Shinsei gym is also home to #9 bantamweight Sun Kubo and former champ Hasegawa.
Midori Gym is home to several local champions but few international. I believe Yabuki is the first to hold a World title at Midori gym.
Betting Odds for Masamichi Yabuki vs. Kenshiro Teraji II
|Bet||Boxing Betting Odds for March 19th, 2022|
|Yabuki Money Line||+130|
|Taraji Money Line||-160|
|Over 10 ½ Rounds||-180|
|Under 10 ½ Rounds||+150|
|Terjai by Decision||+140|
|Teraji by TKO||+280|
|Yabuki by Decision||+400|
|Yabuki by TKO||+300|
|Yabuki TKO rounds 10-12||+950|
|Will the Fight go the Scheduled Distance? Yes||-150|
|Will the Fight go the Scheduled Distance? No||+120|
Teraji is the favorite, and he’s won by KO in five of his last seven wins. Most of these KO’s landed between rounds 4 and 7. If you’re confident that a new style can improve his chances against Yabuki, the payout on the Teraji knockout prop is one of the better Teraji bets on the ticket, but I saw nothing in fight one that showed Teraji could win via knockout.
Betting Odds History for Masamichi Yabuki vs. Kenshiro Teraji
Teraji has been a strong favorite in the majority of his boxing title defenses. He ranged from -1700 to -3500 over his last nine. This is the lowest betting odds we’ve seen from the long time champion.
Yabuki had never had odds available for betting on international sportsbooks until his bout with Teraji. So his odds history is simply +550 at opening in the last fight, and +1100 at closing. In fight two, he opened at +162 and closed at +130.
Boxing Prop Betting for Masamichi Yabuki vs. Kenshiro Teraji
The fight not going the distance is something to consider. Teraji has knockout power and could look for a statement against Yabuki, winning his title back with a finish. When champions return to avenge a loss, it’s not uncommon that they don’t fight more conservatively. I think Teraji will be fighting not to lose in his match with Yabuki, hoping for the mercy of the judges more than an honest finish over Yabuki.
In fight one Yabuki was 40-36 on two scorecards. It doesn’t seem worth it to predict a KO when Yabuki was winning both in damage dealt and in the eyes of the judges. Stick with the money line bet.
Boxing Analysis for Masamichi Yabuki vs. Kenshiro Teraji II
If you’re interested, you can see fight #1 for yourself. It was just seven months ago. You can see the clash of heads that resulted in Teraji’s cut, but it looked like his own fault and not Yabuki’s purposeful attack.
[年間最高試合] Full Fight / 寺地拳四朗 vs 矢吹正道
— Tim Boxeo (@TimBoxeo) March 18, 2022
Yabuki worked Teraji at a distance and in the clench. The difference in how the punches are landing is noticeable.
Teraji’s coach Kato stated ’In the previous fight, we failed to do our kind of boxing because we thought a little too much about the opponent’s boxing and started to mix it up from the ensuing round. But this time around, we will stick to our style of boxing no matter what.’
Kato is convinced this is an issue of strategy and style, not athleticism and power. I see it differently. Watch how Yabuki is repeatedly countering Teraji with shots that do more damage. Yabuki is able to take one and land one, coming out better for it.
Should Yabuki’s Losses Affect My Bet?
Yabuki has three losses, each coming 2018 and prior. The strangest loss is a first round TKO in 2017 from Seigo Akui, now the #7 flyweight. Going up in weight due to lack of competition had always been a poor choice for Yabuki. At 108 pounds, he’s never lost, and he even came in three pounds light in his flyweight loss to Daniel Matelion.
Yabuki doesn’t get pushed around the ring by light flyweight fighters, and it offers him the extra inch of reach that his style needs to perform well.
Bet the Masamichi Yabuki money line at +130 for another WBC upset from an underrated new champion.
PLACE YOUR BETS NOW!
Masamichi Yabuki vs. Kenshiro Teraji II Boxing Pick Wrap Up
Japanese boxing can be tough to navigate, so if you’re unfamiliar with the fighters, focus on understanding the odds and bets. Good boxing betting is as much about finding the best option among available bets as it is analyzing the fight correctly.
Teraji is a good champion, but there just aren’t that many top tier competitive light flyweights. With Japan’s covid restrictions, expect Yabuki to defend his title against unprepared Japanese boxers after this win for several fights to come.