Naoya Inoue vs Aran Dipaen Betting Pick, Latest Odds, and Boxing Analysis

In this Inoue vs Dipaen betting pick, we’re breaking down the odds and stats, giving our top betting pick, and a quick fight analysis. You’ll see the fighters compubox stats, a review of fight tape, and a look at the latest odds as of December 13th, 2021. 

Story of the Fight

This Tuesday, December 14th at Kokugikan Arena in Japan, Naoya ‘Monster’ Inoue defends his WBO Super World Bantam Title against Aran Dipaen. Inoue also holds the WBA and IBO titlesm, but only his WBO title is on the line. This is his sixth title defense. 
Inoue hasn’t fought in his home country since 2019, and he was originally scheduled to fight Casimero, but the bout was canceled last minute in 2020 and promoters scrambled to find a replacement. 
Critics have called Dipaen an obvious easy fight for Inoue in his hometown, but Dipaen has been climbing the ranks. He’s the #2 Thai boxers at Bantamweight and is coming off six TKO finishes over various levels of boxers. 

Inoue has finished nine fights in three rounds or less.”

Tale of the Tape for Inoue vs Dipaen 

On paper, these boxers’ stats look similar. It isn’t until you look at the quality of the boxers they’ve faced that you understand the differences in their ability. 

Fighter  Naoya Inoue Aran Dipaen
Ranking  #1 #52
Age 28 30
Height 5’5’’ 5’4’’
Reach 68’’ NA
Total Fights 21 14
Record 21-0 12-2
Knockouts 18, 85% 11, 78%
Stance Orthodox  Orthodox 
Career

rounds

117 51
Inactivity  543 Days  270 Days 
Normal 
Weight class
Bantam  Bantam 
Boxing Coach Shingo Inoue, Ohashi Gym N.A. 

Inoue has the majority of natural advantages. At weigh ins, he was right at the cap of Bantamweight at 117.9 and Dipaen was at 117.5. It’s rumored that Dipaen doesn’t cut weight, and walks around inside the weight class. The majority of high level boxers cut weight to make it to their competitive weight class, and Inoue is reported to cut nearly twenty pounds. 
Inoue has fought double the number of rounds and has eight more bouts than Dipaen. Dipaen didn’t have a recorded amatuer career or any olympic career, while Inoue was a decorated non-olympic amatuer boxer, taking both the AIBA Youth Worlds and Asian Youth Championship in Iran 2010.  

Fighter Camp Comparison

Inoue’s boxing coach is his father at Ohashi Gym. Ohashi is the most decorated boxing school in Japan. Koji Matsumoto and multiple local champions  run the gym alongside Shingo Inoue.
Dipaen is difficult to study, and has no coaching staff reported online. His last six bouts have been at a regional gym, and few stats have been produced from those fights. 

Available Bets and Latest Odds for Inoue vs Dipaen

All odds are currently available at Betonline.ag. The 

Bet Odds and Payout per Dollar Wager
Aran Dipaen Money Line +1400, $1400
Naoya Inoue Money Line -4000, $0.03
Over 2 ½ Rounds  -115, $0.87
Under 2 ½ Rounds  -115, $0.87

Inoue is a strong favorite and an early finish looks good to the oddsmakers. 

Dipaen is a big underdog, and a knockout artist serving up fourteen times your money is tough to pass up. Dipaen’s record shows that he hasn’t defeated any fighters with undefeated records. In fact, his last fight was against a fighter in their debut, and three of his last five opponents had losing records. 
Inoue’s three cent payout can be parlayed with other bets for a more lucrative outcome. He’s coming off wins over higher level knockout artists, so I’m less concerned that Dipaen is going to land a fight-ending lucky punch.

Betting the Props

The props put the over/under even at the 2 ½ Rounds mark. Inoue has consistently finished opponents of this level inside four rounds. Inoue’s three decision victories were over former champions or title challengers. 

Dipaen has never been knocked out. His two losses were to 11-0 Tommy Frank and 6-1 Zafar Parpiev. In the Parpiev fight, Dipaen went down in the first round. I’m skeptical on betting the props in this fight because the over under is so low. I’d bet the under if I were forced to take a position, but parlaying the Inoue Money Line is a far better ticket. 

Top Knockout Artists Inoue Has Beaten

This is a who’s who of Bantamweight punchers, missing only the name of Casimero. 

Fighter  Dasmarinas  Moloney  Donaire Boyeaux 
Total Knockouts 20 KOs 18 KOs 28 KOs 26 KOs

Latest Compubox Stats for Inoue

Though we won’t have Dipaen’s compubox stats to compare it to, let’s take a quick look at Inoue’s punching accuracy and defense. 

Opponent Michael Dasmarinas  Jason Moloney  Nonito Donaire Emmanuel Rodriguez 
Inoue Total Punches Landed  38/112, 33.9% 107/338, 31.7% 227/628, 38% 24/80, 42%
Inoue Total Punches Absorbed 12/80, 15% 62/334, 18.6% 141/ 605, 23% 13/69, 18.8%
Outcome  Third Round KO Seventh Round KO Do Twelfth Round UD  Second Round KO

Inoue consistently improves his punching defense and is an early starter. After a review of Dipaen’s most recent bouts, it’s clear he isn’t used to boxers who will go after him in the first three rounds. 

Latest Fight Tape for Dipaen

Dipaen’s available fights online include his bout with Zafar Parpiev and a highlight reel of recent wins on the local level. Dipaen stands guard up and relies on his gloves for the majority of his defense. This is a cardinal sin versus Inoue, who’s known for cutting through opponent guards like butter. Dipaen was knocked down in the first round and stumbled in several others. 
In his better performances, he lands whipping hooks to the body and short check hook-right uppercut combos. He keeps his punches tight, but is mainly faced by boxers who will run into his fists for him. 

Fight Analysis for Inoue vs Dipaen Betting Pick 

Inoue should move in quickly. We’ll see the first punches landed in the first thirty seconds of the bout. In his last three fights Inoue landed around ten to twenty strikes per round in the first five rounds. Dipaen won’t be an exception.
Dipaen will have to show head movement early on, otherwise we’ll see a short night, falling into the Under 2 ½ Rounds prop. 

Comparing the Fighters Last Performance

Differences in Quality of Opponent

Here’s a look at Dipaen and Inoue’s last four fights, comparing opponent ranking and stats. Both fighters won all four bouts. 

Inoue  30-2-1 21-1 40-5 19-0
Dipaen  26-11 Debut 5-9-1 6-10

Even without examining opponent competition, you can see the differences in the opponent’s they’ve faced. 

Last Time Inoue Fought at These Odds

Dipaen has no odds history on record other than his two losses. He was +700 vs Frank and +400 vs Parpiev. 
Inoue has ranged between -380 versus Rodriguez to -10000 versus Jarupinlierd over the last five years. His last three fights include his -590 decision over Donaire. 

Inoue vs Dipaen Wrap Up 

We’ve seen our fair share of recent upsets, but thesportsgeek.com had a great weekend of boxing prediction, calling the Lomachenko, Taylor and Bivol fights. Yes, all strong favorites. If you’re using parlay’s for these easy victories, it’s possible to make a whole betting strategy off picking winning champions. 
Check out our boxing guide for more on parlays and properly utilize the props. 

Jacob Clark / Author

Jacob Clark had a 15 year career as a professional MMA fighter, coach, and Greg Jackson’s alum. Now, TikTok’s 12th most important BJJ influencer is bringing his sports and betting knowledge to you here at TheSportsGeek. He spends his time cooking vietnamese food and playing D&D with his family. You can meet him at jiu-jitsu open mats all over Indiana.

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