Nietes vs Ioka Odds and Prediction

Donnie Nietes vs Kazuto Ioka is on, and the WBO junior Bantamweight title is on the line. Nietes vs Ioka odds include ten betting markets from Bovada, and we’ve taken a close look at each to offer our top betting pick.

How to Watch and Bet on Nietes vs Ioka II

 This fight airs at 6:00 AM ET on July 13th, 2022 in Tokyo, Japan. Many Japanese fights have late streaming options and can be found regularly on Youtube. Betting odds for this fight are supported by Bovada. For boxing betting online, bovada consistently provides the most betting markets on boxing title fights. 

Top Betting Pick for Nietes vs Ioka II

The only Over prop available aligns with their last fight. Ioka has knockouts, but Nietes has only lost once and has never been finished. At forty, even the oddsmakers are worried. Is this guy ever going to be finished? Ioka’s momentum makes this fight look like a clear win for him, but Nietes staying power makes it impossible to bet that money line. 

Top betting Pick for Ioka or Nietes Fans

Ioka fans should bet on his decision prop. I don’t see a reasonable way to say that Ioka will win via knockout, and the decision prop pays a handsome -120. Nietes fans should bet his money line. His first win over Ioka he outclassed him in every round. I think that his age has people tentative, myself included. 

Story of the Fight

Nietes is coming off a draw against Norbelto Jimenez that allowed him to maintain the WBO title.

He beat Ioka in 2018 via split decision, but Ioka is the favorite for the rematch.

Nietes wants to prove that he’s the champ and beat Ioka on his home turf, but the oddsmakers don’t think it’s very likely.
Since losing to Nietes, Ioka has gone 5-0 including two knockouts of top contenders. 

Tale of the Tape for Nietes vs Ioka II

Fighter  Donnie ‘Snake’ Nietes  Kazuto Ioka 
World Ranking  #5 #4
Age 40 33
Height 5’3’’ 5’5’’
Reach 65’’ 66’’
Total Fights 50 30
Record 43-1-6 28-2
Knockouts 23 15
Stance Orthodox  Orthodox 
Inactivity  7 Months 7 Months 

Nietes is smaller and seven years old. On paper, Ioka is the clear favorite. He’s performed better in fights since their first meeting, with more wins and knockouts. Nietes only loss was in 2004, but has gone only 1-0-1 since the Ioka fight, slowing his fight frequency considerably. 

Money Line Odds for Nietes vs Ioka II

Bet Odds and Payout per Dollar Wager
Nietes Money Line +325, $3.25
Ioka Money Line -500, $0.20

Nietes is the underdog again, upsetting Ioka as a +220 in fight one. These are his only underdog bouts on record. Ioka was the underdog against Tanka, whom he knocked out, and Arroyo, a 10 round decision win in 2018. 

Over Under Odds for Nietes vs Ioka II

Bet  Over, Yes Odds  Under, No Odds 
10.5 Rounds -330 +220
Fight goes the Distance  -240 +165
Fight Ends in Round 1-3 +2200 N.A.
Fight Ends in Round 4-6 +850 N.A.
Fight Ends in Round 7-9  +500 N.A.
Fight Ends in Round 10-12 +600 N.A.

Nietes has seen eight decisions in his last ten fights, a seven year fight span. Ioka is more mixed, holding a consistent 60% KO spread in his last fifteen. Neither fighter has been finished, and they’re rarely knocked down. The under props are playing with fire, and a bigger risk than the oddsmakers are offering. 

Method of Victory odds for Nietes vs Ioka II

Bet Donnie Nietes Kazuto Ioka 
TKO Win +850 +250
Decision Win  +475 -120
Draw +1600 +1600

The only reason you would bet a KO here is because of Nietes age. 40 feels like too old to be the champ, and his last performance was off kilter. Still, Nietes wouldn’t take the fight if he didn’t feel competitive.

For us, a draw is preferable to a knockout prop for this fight. 

The Nietes decision prop matches their Fight One outcome. 

Top Round Betting Odds for Nietes vs Ioka II

Bet Donnie Nietes Kazuto Ioka 
TKO Rounds 7-12 +1600 +350
TKO Rounds 10 +5000 +1800
TKO Rounds 11 +6600 +1800

Nietes vs Ioka odds for knockouts show a +1600 for Nietes Rounds 7-12, perhaps the only KO prop we’d consider. 

Boxing Analysis for Nietes vs Ioka 

Ioka has one punch power that repeatedly allows him to punch less but win rounds anyway. In the first fight with Nietes, this didn’t fly. The Nietes vs Ioka odds offer a massive +475 on a Donnie Nietes decision win only because it’s in Tokyo and Ioka will be a strong crowd and judging favorite. 

Nietes plans on going for the knockout, and he may lay it all on the line, knowing that the kid from Japan will have judges favor. Fight one wasn’t close, but Ioka fans will tell you he hurt Donnie. Analyst scorecards across the board show Nietes winning seven rounds to five. 

This close fight and the nature of both boxers styles leads us to bet the over. We’ll leave room for a late knockout, with the expectation that both fighters don’t want to see a judge’s decision. Bet the -330 Over 10 ½ Rounds for $30.30 in winnings per $100 wager on a bet with implied probability of 76.7%. 

Jacob Clark / Author

Jacob Clark had a 15 year career as a professional MMA fighter, coach, and Greg Jackson’s alum. Now, TikTok’s 12th most important BJJ influencer is bringing his sports and betting knowledge to you here at TheSportsGeek. He spends his time cooking vietnamese food and playing D&D with his family. You can meet him at jiu-jitsu open mats all over Indiana.

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