This Nietes vs Jimenez betting pick is one of my favorites in a stacked weekend of fights! Two Super-flyweights go head to head, but one is a clear winner and underrated boxer paying out far more than he ought to. In this betting pick, we’re closely analyzing the odds, props, and fight tape stats and we’ve had a nearly flawless champion with a great payout.
Story of the Fight
Donnie Nietes has held four titles across various weight classes. He’s currently the WBO International Super Flyweight Champion. After taking off from 2018 to 2021, Donnie vacated his belts to regain the title over Pablo Carrillo in April. Now he’s looking for his first title defense against #23 Ranked Norbelto Jimenez.
After a rough start to his career, Jimenez is on a tear, losing only one of his last twenty eight bouts.
These two boxing veterans square off on the main card at Coca-Cola Arena in Dubai, December 11th 2021 for the WBO title on the same card as Casimero vs Butler! Watch the bout with your DAZN Boxing subscription.
Are you ready for the revolution LIVE this Dec 12, Sun, 12AM on SKY PPV? Catch these Pinoy fighters & more:
? Edwards vs MAMA
? CASIMERO vs Butler
? NIETES vs Jimenez
— SKY (@mySKYupdates) December 9, 2021
Betting Odds and Payouts for Nietes vs Jimenez
All odds accurate as of December 9th and available on Betonline.ag.
|Betting Pick||Odds and Payout per Dollar Wagered|
|Donnie Nietes Money Line||-600, $0.17|
|Norbelto Jimenez Money Line||+400, $4.00|
|Over 10½ Rounds||-200|
|Under 10½ Rounds||+160|
Nietes is a moderate favorite, though the over is very enticing given Donnie’s age and percentage of decision wins.
Money Line Betting
Nietes opened at -2000 and has since drooped, with some fans doubting his ability to perform with age. Nietes opened as the underdog against Kazuto Ioka, a fighter seven years younger than him that he defeated via split decision in 2018. Other than that, he’s the favorite in all bouts on record, ranging from -200 to -1000
Jimenez has little odds history available, but he lost as a +460 underdog vs Khalid Yafal.
I see few reasons to bet on the Jimenez money line.
Donnie has two knockouts over his last seven bouts. All other fights fall into the Over 10 ½ Rounds category as decision wins or draws.
Meanwhile, Jimenez has fought four decisions straight after TKO finishes over mostly unknown boxers.
I don’t see Jimenez able to finish Nietes, and with age and a relatively low lifetime knockout percentage, betting the Over 10 ½ Rounds prop is wise if you’re looking for a slightly better payout on a less surefire bet.
Jimenez is #1 in the Dominican Republic and Nietes is #1 in the Philippines,
Tale of the Tape for Nietes vs Jimenez
|Fighter||Donnie Nietes||Norbelto Jimenez|
|Knockouts||23, 46%||16, 36%|
|Inactivity||252 Days||359 Days|
|Super Fly||Super Fly|
|Coaching Staff||Nick Curson, Villamor||N.A.|
Jimenez is younger, taller, and has a greater reach than Nietes. Nietes has a greater lifetime knockout percentage. 46% puts him among the top ranked super flyweights alive.
Nietes has fought nearly 50% more total rounds with only five more total bouts. This speaks to longer scheduled fights, 10 and 12 rounders, that Nietes has competed in the majority of his pro career.
Comparing Coaching Staff
Nick Curson runs Speed of Sport Academy, a personal training program that has produced dozens of olympic medalists in boxing, swimming and wrestling, as well as MMA and boxing champions alike.
Curson’s long term commitment to Nietes has paid dividends and they’ve been working together for at least eight years.
Nietes also worked with Villamor boxing, a gym that has produced dozens of world champions such as Albert Pagara and Kevin Cataraja.
Jimenez’s coaching staff couldn’t be accurately accounted for, though he does train full time in the Dominican Republic.
Fight Analysis for Nietes vs Jimenez
We predict that Nietes outworks and out paces Jimenez. The compubox stats have little to offer due to the low profile of many Jimenez fights, but we reviewed fight tape to look for our winner.
Jimenez vs Lasisi
Jimenez lies to punch up close, but shows disregard for his opponent’s power. He squares up often and doesn’t move his head other than to pull. Look for Nietes to land razor sharp uppercuts as Jimenez dips to the inside.
Jimenez keeps a tight shell, but still has trouble finding range. This bout was in 2020, and he looked like he still had some fundamentals to master despite hitting quite hard.
In the 5th, Jimenez gets caught and begins hyping up Lasisi, but ends up getting caught repeatedly. In the end his pace appears far too slow.
Nietes vs Carrillo
Looking at Nietes’ most recent performance given his age.
Nietes uses range finding early to stay outside of his opponent’s combinations. He’s immediately landing jabs and doing damage.
Nietes will look to catch long straight rights and whipping uppercuts to punish head movement. He wins the fight with ease, and though Carrillo lands shots, Donnie looks nearly unphased by the fight’s end, winning 98 to 92 and 99 to 91 on two score cards.
Nietes vs Jimenez Betting Pick Wrap Up
If you liked this pick, let us know why in the box below and we’ll send you some more articles on sports betting strategy and online gambling. If you’re looking for the rest of the Boxing Card in Dubai, start here with the Main Event.