Sandor Martin vs Mikey Garcia Boxing PIck and Betting Analysis

Three division champion Mikey Garcia returns to the ring vs #15 super lightweight Sandor Martin at welterweight in a fight that was originally a 145 lbs catchweight in Fresno California.

Garcia is only two fights past his first ever loss to Errol Spence Jr and is still building up his legacy. Sandor Martin has lost one of his last five and is gunning to secure the largest win of his career by a longshot. 

Analysts say that Sandor will take a beating, but with the number of stunning upsets we’ve seen in boxing over the past six months, better to dive into the stats before we place our bets at a top boxing betting site

 

Sandor Martin vs Mikey Garcia Odds and Props:

Fighter Money lines and payout per dollar  Over/Under 8 1/2
Sandor Martin +1000, $10.00 O   -180, $0.56
Mikey Garcia -2000, $0.05 U  +150, $1.50

.Sandor Martin is paying out at ten times your wager, while Garcia pays a nickel on the dollar. The over/under prop is set at 8 ½ rounds on a ten round fight. Garcia hasn’t had a knockout in five fights, but his last three KO’s fall into the under 8 ½ rounds prop. Garcia knockouts include Dejan Zlaticanin in round three, Rojas in round five, and Martinez early in round eight. 

Other Prop Bets Available for Garcia vs Martin

I’ve only included prop bets that include specific Garcia wins and decisions. There are any number of prop bets about Sandor finishes, and specific round calling longshots. 

Prop Bet Odds
Fight Goes to Decision -164
Fight Doesn’t Go to Decision +120
Garcia TKO +120
Garcia Decision -164
Any Other Result than Garcia TKO N.A.

Betting the fight goes to decision could make sense, considering Sandor Martin hasn’t ever been knocked out. Fight doesn’t go to decision is the same bet as a Garcia TKO. I’m assuming oddsmakers don’t see any chance of a Sandor knockout, making those two props identical. You may as well bet the doesn’t go to decision prop as insurance against any wild upsets. 

Not that any other result than a Garcia TKO isn’t available, but that’s the prop I like best, and I’m hoping the oddsmakers bring it to the table before fight night. 

Tale of the Tape for Sandor Martin vs Mikey Garcia

Sandor Martin Mikey Garcia
Age 28 33
Height 5’7’’ 5’6’’
Reach 69’’ 68’’
Total Fights 40 41
Record 38-2 40-1
Knockouts 13 30
Stance Southpaw Orthodox
Career

rounds

254 238
Inactivity  176 595
Normal 

Weight class

Super Light Welter

Sandro is younger, taller and has a slight reach advantage. Thiese slight advantages add up quickly. Sandor is a southpaw and primarily infights. He often bullies super lightwegihts into the ropes, as he did with Yigit. Garcia has more than double the total knockouts of Sandor despite having only one more fight. Sandor Martin has been active this year, while Garcia was off a year and a half.  

Sandor Martin Record, Style, and Strategy 

Sandor Martin’s Last Five Bouts

Opponent  Kay Prospere Nestor Maradiaga Joe Hughes  Andrea Scarpa  Sandro Hernandez
Opponent TKOs 7 5 7 11 10
Outcome Unanimous Decision WIn Unanimous Decision WIn Unanimous Decision WIn RTD Stoppage Win Unanimous Decision WIn

Punch tracking stats aren’t readily available for these fights. Primarily, Sandro has been fighting opponent’s to rebuild his career after two hard losses, most recently to Anthony Yigit in 2017. 

Two of the five fighters Sandor faced held losing records. Each of them have knockout power, but all lacked the caliber or experience of Garcia. Sandor stopped only one of these five opponent’s, indicating that he was fighting a safe fight, but also that his ability to knockout Garcia is questionable. 

Garcia is a weight class heavier than Sandor, but even these last three opponents were taller than Garcia, sporting more reach. Sandor does a good job of fighting the outside and sniping in with his left. He wobbled Scarpa and Kay with short right hooks out of the clench. 

Sandor Martin vs Anthony Yigit 

Yigit repeatedly landed the right hook against his fellow southpaw. Sandor leaves his hands down often, attempting a style centered on slipping inside the exchange. He attempted to smother Yigit, meeting him in the center of the ring and infighting. Sandor lost a unanimous decision. 

Mikey Garcia Record, Style, and Strategy

Mikey Garcia’s Last Five Bouts 

Opponent  Jessie Vargas Errol Spence Jr Robert Easter Jr Serey Lipinets Adrien Broner
Punches Landed  151 75 176 169 244
Punches Absorbed  142 345 129 144 125
Opponent KOs/TKOs 11 21 14 12 24
Outcome Unanimous Decision Win Unanimous Decision Loss Unanimous Decision Win Unanimous Decision Win Unanimous Decision Win

We have significantly more information about Garcia’s last five fights. His loss to Errol Spence jr showed him getting outclassed completely. While Sandro isn’t on spences level, for some fighters a beating like that can have long term effects. 

Garcea narrowly out boxed three of his last five opponents, all with near the punching power of Sandor (Sandor has thirteen career knockouts) and he wasn’t knocked down in any of the last five fights. Sandor hasn’t been shown throwing the volume or demonstrating the head movement to survive Garcia’s punch numbers. 

Errol Spence is nothing like Sandor Martin, and theres no sense in comparing the two contests. However, Spence is a southpaw. Errol has a more contained left cross than Sandor. Garcia struggled to land his left hand at all, and his cross connected with Errol’s glove and fore arm again and again. While Sandor can’t become Errol Spence Jr, he can take some pointers for the fight on how a southpaw should deal with Garcia, enough to make a competitive decision. 

How do Martin and Garcia’s Styles Match Up?

Jessie Vargas is 5 ‘11’’ and came in with a significant reach advantage. He came around the gloves often but ultimately couldn’t handle the volume of Garcia who landed more and more punches throughout the fight. Garcia’s best punch is a straight right stepping up the middle, and Sandor’s southpaw stance is too square to manage it well for ten rounds. 

Sandor’s last fight with Prosper showed that he’s still vulnerable to the right hook. He commits heavily to forward movement with his cross, even stumbling into orthodox stance. In the later rounds as Prosper got aggressive, he did a good job of managing distance, backing up to the ropes and clinching up to end exchanges he didn’t like. 

My Final Pick 

I’m just not confident in a Garcia TKO or decision win. I think Sandor is a better opponent that people are making him out to be and has the potential to make it a fight. I’ll be looking to tack this fight on as a parlay bet to a more surefire win this weekend.  

 

Jacob Clark / Author

Jacob Clark had a 15 year career as a professional MMA fighter, coach, and Greg Jackson’s alum. Now, TikTok’s 12th most important BJJ influencer is bringing his sports and betting knowledge to you here at TheSportsGeek. He spends his time cooking vietnamese food and playing D&D with his family. You can meet him at jiu-jitsu open mats all over Indiana.

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