Spence Jr. vs Ugas Boxing Betting Pick

Our betting pick for Spence vs Ugas takes a detailed look at the fight history of both fighters, the betting odds, and the stats to determine our top picks. Place your bets before April 16th, 2022 at 11:59 AM ET to add this main event pick to your betting ticket. 
Spence vs Ugas 2 odds have changed dramatically since opening, and close strongly in favor of Errol Spence Jr. 

Top Spence vs Ugas Betting Pick 

Errol pays out at $17 per $100 wagered.
Spence Jr. is still undefeated, and while some are concerned that Ugas has the momentum of the PacMan win on his side, remember that Spence is the champion for a reason. Ugas’s wide swinging style matches up poorly with the lightning hands of Spence. Spence has been on a tear, with many of the best performances of his career over the last three years. Space has been off since December 2020, and Ugas is expected to come out hard early. This will only play into Spence’s hands for a long, clinical decision win. 

Lead Up to Spence Jr. vs Ugas on 

Spence was in a brutal car crash and retina tear that took him out of the fight with Manny Pacquiao. Ugas stepped up on short notice and took out the legend in an upset victory, August of 2021. He’s now in line for a shot at Spence’s titles, the IBF and WBC welterweight titles. Spence is ranked #5 in the world, while Ugas holds the WBA title he took from Abel Ramos. The winner is expected to fight Terence Crawford in a title unifying bout. 
Spence has said he is “100% confident” that Ugas can not beat him, and Ugas’s coaches are convinced that Spence isn’t the same fight after his car wreck, leaving room for Ugas to upset him the way he did Pacquiao. 

Tale of the Tape for Spence Jr. vs Ugas 

Fighter  Errol Spence Jr.  Yordenis Ugas 
Age 32 35
Height 5’10’’ 5’9’’
Reach 72” 69”
Record 27 27-4
Knockouts 21 12
Stance Southpaw  Orthodox 
Inactivity  17 Months 8 Months 
Boxing trainer  Derrick James  Ismael Salas

Ugas is the older man, with more losses and less of a physical presence in the ring. He’s disadvantaged in nearly every category, including knockout power. In coverage leading up to the fight, Ugas is often regarded as the stronger puncher, but that’s not what the stats say. His twelve knockouts include only one in his last five fights. He scored two in 2018, when he was 31, but with age I wonder if his devastating right hook will maintain its snap.  Spence has gone to decision in his last three, and prior to that knocked out every fighter for eleven fights straight, each from rounds two to eight. 

Who’s the Better Coach? James or Salas

Salas is one of those quiet names in boxing. He’s trained twenty world champions in his career, including Guillermo Rigondeaux, Ioka, and Joe Joyce. He’s been outspoken lately about his belief that the car wreck changed Spence based on training footage, but the Spence team denies this. Derrick James trains current champs Jermell Charlo, Spence, and 6-0 prospect Burley Brooks. He was the 2020 Trainer of the Year. Overall, Salas has more fighters who’ve achieved title status, but he’s also been in the game longer. The fact that so many current boxer’s work with James makes this a tie in my eyes, with Salas having the advantage of experience, but James having momentum and champion level examples to compare Spence to. Onto April 16th, 2022’s boxing betting odds. 

Betting Odds for Spence Jr. vs Ugas 

Bet Odds  Odds 
Spence Jr. Money Line -600
Ugas Money Line +380
Over/Under 4.5 Rounds  O -6600 U +1100
Over/Under 5.5 Rounds O -2500 U +800
Over/Under 6.5 Rounds  O -1200 U +575
Over/Under 7.5 Rounds  O -750 U +425
Over/Under 8.5 Rounds  O -525 U +325
Over/Under 9.5 Rounds  O -415 U +260
Over/Under 10.5 Rounds  O -315 U +210
Errol Spence TKO in Rounds 7-8 +850
Ugas TKO Rounds 9-10  +4000
Will the Fight Go the Distance  Yes -240 No +165
Spence by  TKO +220 Decision -136
Ugas by  TKO +1100 Decision +600
Draw  +1800

Spence is still a huge favorite, with Ugas offering four times your money. A Spence knockout offers only half the Ugas money line, and a ‘fight goes the distance’ prop offers just over half of the Spence money line. Lets see how this stacks up to their previous betting history. 

Betting Odds History for Spence vs Ugas

Ugas has been the underdog in each of his biggest appearances, including Pacquiao at +395, and his split decision loss to Shawn Porter in 2019, opening at +400 and closing at +250. After two upset losses in 2014, he was the underdog in his win over Jamal James at +250. Ugas has upset in two of his three lifetime underdog fights. 
Spence jr. has been -200 to -10000 in all bouts ranging back to 2017. His split decision win over Porter was his closest fight, though he came in at -800. Ugas is 1-1 against men inside the top ten, and Spence has come closest to loss against Porter, the same fight Ugas saw a split decision with. 

Prop Betting on Spence vs Ugas 

Ugas winning by split decision seems reasonable for his fans, so you may as well bet the Ugas Decision at +600 if you’re planning on his money line. Over 6.5 rounds is one of my top bets, considering that against top five fighters Spence has rarely seen finishes, and many after round six, like against Kell Brook and Heerdden, rounds ten and eight respectively. 
I’d steer clear of Under betting. Both fighters went the distance with Shawn Porter, and we may see a similar bout, especially considering Spence’s ring rust and Ugas’s aging hands. See more Spence vs Ugas betting Odds and props at Bovada, including multiple long shot round betting props with big payoffs. 

Boxing Analysis for Spence Jr. vs Ugas

Ugas has to be concerned with the angle work of Spence. He puts in body work when a fighter is stunned, using the kind of discipline that repeatedly creates openings. 

Against Kell Brook, Spence repeatedly used the jab late in the fight to connect. The composure of Spence will be an issue for Ugas, who continues to widen his shots as the fight goes on. Spence takes some shots in these last two rounds, but Spence is able to hunt down Kell rather than sitting back, utilizing some clenching to defend shots and even a bit of questionable dirty boxing. 

Ugas has had good looks against some of the only southpaws of his career, but facing a high level southpaw is a different challenge. Look at the differences in composure between Ugas finishing and Spence finishing. It’s this control that Spence will use to win rounds late in the fight. 

The southpaw jab of Pacquiao was easy for Ugas to punch over the top of, but Spence isn’t as small as Manny. You get a sense that a younger, longer fighter would have repeatedly connected. Ugas is giving up reach and height to Spence, and this kind of big brother counter punching isn’t going to fly. 


Spence Jr. vs Ugas Boxing Pick Wrap Up

If you’re looking to fill up your boxing ticket this weekend, consider adding some of the top MMA picks. Those new to boxing may look to add a parlay from their sport of choice, and I think the Spence Money line is perfect for coupling with one or two other high confidence bets. Leave a comment below with any questions we didn’t answer in our coverage! 

Jacob Clark / Author

Jacob Clark had a 15 year career as a professional MMA fighter, coach, and Greg Jackson’s alum. Now, TikTok’s 12th most important BJJ influencer is bringing his sports and betting knowledge to you here at TheSportsGeek. He spends his time cooking vietnamese food and playing D&D with his family. You can meet him at jiu-jitsu open mats all over Indiana.

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