Our betting pick for Spence vs Ugas takes a detailed look at the fight history of both fighters, the betting odds, and the stats to determine our top picks. Place your bets before April 16th, 2022 at 11:59 AM ET to add this main event pick to your betting ticket.
Spence vs Ugas 2 odds have changed dramatically since opening, and close strongly in favor of Errol Spence Jr.
Top Spence vs Ugas Betting Pick
Errol pays out at $17 per $100 wagered.
Spence Jr. is still undefeated, and while some are concerned that Ugas has the momentum of the PacMan win on his side, remember that Spence is the champion for a reason. Ugas’s wide swinging style matches up poorly with the lightning hands of Spence. Spence has been on a tear, with many of the best performances of his career over the last three years. Space has been off since December 2020, and Ugas is expected to come out hard early. This will only play into Spence’s hands for a long, clinical decision win.
Lead Up to Spence Jr. vs Ugas on
Spence was in a brutal car crash and retina tear that took him out of the fight with Manny Pacquiao. Ugas stepped up on short notice and took out the legend in an upset victory, August of 2021. He’s now in line for a shot at Spence’s titles, the IBF and WBC welterweight titles. Spence is ranked #5 in the world, while Ugas holds the WBA title he took from Abel Ramos. The winner is expected to fight Terence Crawford in a title unifying bout.
Spence has said he is “100% confident” that Ugas can not beat him, and Ugas’s coaches are convinced that Spence isn’t the same fight after his car wreck, leaving room for Ugas to upset him the way he did Pacquiao.
Tale of the Tape for Spence Jr. vs Ugas
| Fighter | Errol Spence Jr. | Yordenis Ugas |
| Age | 32 | 35 |
| Height | 5’10’’ | 5’9’’ |
| Reach | 72” | 69” |
| Record | 27 | 27-4 |
| Knockouts | 21 | 12 |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Inactivity | 17 Months | 8 Months |
| Boxing trainer | Derrick James | Ismael Salas |
Ugas is the older man, with more losses and less of a physical presence in the ring. He’s disadvantaged in nearly every category, including knockout power. In coverage leading up to the fight, Ugas is often regarded as the stronger puncher, but that’s not what the stats say. His twelve knockouts include only one in his last five fights. He scored two in 2018, when he was 31, but with age I wonder if his devastating right hook will maintain its snap. Spence has gone to decision in his last three, and prior to that knocked out every fighter for eleven fights straight, each from rounds two to eight.
Who’s the Better Coach? James or Salas
Salas is one of those quiet names in boxing. He’s trained twenty world champions in his career, including Guillermo Rigondeaux, Ioka, and Joe Joyce. He’s been outspoken lately about his belief that the car wreck changed Spence based on training footage, but the Spence team denies this. Derrick James trains current champs Jermell Charlo, Spence, and 6-0 prospect Burley Brooks. He was the 2020 Trainer of the Year. Overall, Salas has more fighters who’ve achieved title status, but he’s also been in the game longer. The fact that so many current boxer’s work with James makes this a tie in my eyes, with Salas having the advantage of experience, but James having momentum and champion level examples to compare Spence to. Onto April 16th, 2022’s boxing betting odds.
Betting Odds for Spence Jr. vs Ugas
| Bet | Odds | Odds |
| Spence Jr. Money Line | -600 | |
| Ugas Money Line | +380 | |
| Over/Under 4.5 Rounds | O -6600 | U +1100 |
| Over/Under 5.5 Rounds | O -2500 | U +800 |
| Over/Under 6.5 Rounds | O -1200 | U +575 |
| Over/Under 7.5 Rounds | O -750 | U +425 |
| Over/Under 8.5 Rounds | O -525 | U +325 |
| Over/Under 9.5 Rounds | O -415 | U +260 |
| Over/Under 10.5 Rounds | O -315 | U +210 |
| Errol Spence TKO in Rounds 7-8 | +850 | |
| Ugas TKO Rounds 9-10 | +4000 | |
| Will the Fight Go the Distance | Yes -240 | No +165 |
| Spence by | TKO +220 | Decision -136 |
| Ugas by | TKO +1100 | Decision +600 |
| Draw | +1800 |
Spence is still a huge favorite, with Ugas offering four times your money. A Spence knockout offers only half the Ugas money line, and a ‘fight goes the distance’ prop offers just over half of the Spence money line. Lets see how this stacks up to their previous betting history.
Betting Odds History for Spence vs Ugas
Ugas has been the underdog in each of his biggest appearances, including Pacquiao at +395, and his split decision loss to Shawn Porter in 2019, opening at +400 and closing at +250. After two upset losses in 2014, he was the underdog in his win over Jamal James at +250. Ugas has upset in two of his three lifetime underdog fights.
Spence jr. has been -200 to -10000 in all bouts ranging back to 2017. His split decision win over Porter was his closest fight, though he came in at -800. Ugas is 1-1 against men inside the top ten, and Spence has come closest to loss against Porter, the same fight Ugas saw a split decision with.
Prop Betting on Spence vs Ugas
Ugas winning by split decision seems reasonable for his fans, so you may as well bet the Ugas Decision at +600 if you’re planning on his money line. Over 6.5 rounds is one of my top bets, considering that against top five fighters Spence has rarely seen finishes, and many after round six, like against Kell Brook and Heerdden, rounds ten and eight respectively.
I’d steer clear of Under betting. Both fighters went the distance with Shawn Porter, and we may see a similar bout, especially considering Spence’s ring rust and Ugas’s aging hands. See more Spence vs Ugas betting Odds and props at Bovada, including multiple long shot round betting props with big payoffs.
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Boxing Analysis for Spence Jr. vs Ugas
Ugas has to be concerned with the angle work of Spence. He puts in body work when a fighter is stunned, using the kind of discipline that repeatedly creates openings.
Errol Spence Jr. fight week ?? #SpenceUgas pic.twitter.com/IdxkITYrK8
— b0xingfan (@b0xingfan_) April 11, 2022
Against Kell Brook, Spence repeatedly used the jab late in the fight to connect. The composure of Spence will be an issue for Ugas, who continues to widen his shots as the fight goes on. Spence takes some shots in these last two rounds, but Spence is able to hunt down Kell rather than sitting back, utilizing some clenching to defend shots and even a bit of questionable dirty boxing.
Errol Spence Jr had to silence a big crowd on the road when winning his first world title.
Spence really turned the screw on Brook in rounds 9 and 10.
On Saturday Spence fights Ugas in attempt to claim his 3rd welterweight title.
Who wins and how?#boxing #SpenceUgas pic.twitter.com/UTvCtgFq7S
— Steve Boxman (@SteveBoxman) April 11, 2022
Ugas has had good looks against some of the only southpaws of his career, but facing a high level southpaw is a different challenge. Look at the differences in composure between Ugas finishing and Spence finishing. It’s this control that Spence will use to win rounds late in the fight.
Yordenis Ugas vs a Southpaw ?#SpenceUgas pic.twitter.com/1LghgbYJ4z
— #RingsideFracas (@Ringside_Fracas) April 12, 2022
The southpaw jab of Pacquiao was easy for Ugas to punch over the top of, but Spence isn’t as small as Manny. You get a sense that a younger, longer fighter would have repeatedly connected. Ugas is giving up reach and height to Spence, and this kind of big brother counter punching isn’t going to fly.
Yordenis Ugas countering [southpaw] Manny Pacquiao jab #SpenceUgas pic.twitter.com/1FU1MqnHqT
— #SpenceUgas (@BatmanBoxing) April 12, 2022
Spence Jr. vs Ugas Boxing Pick Wrap Up
If you’re looking to fill up your boxing ticket this weekend, consider adding some of the top MMA picks. Those new to boxing may look to add a parlay from their sport of choice, and I think the Spence Money line is perfect for coupling with one or two other high confidence bets. Leave a comment below with any questions we didn’t answer in our coverage!
