Sunny Edwards vs Muhammad Waseem Boxing Betting Pick and Odds

Critics are expecting a clean win from Edwards over Waseem in a one sided match up, but can Muhammad pull away with the win? Our betting pick focuses on the style matchup and money line bet for the Sunny Edwards vs Muhammad Waseem boxing main event on March 19th, 2022 for the IBF World Boxing Title. Place your bets before 4:00PM ET as the fight takes place in Dubai, UAE. 

Sunny Edwards vs Muhammad Waseem Betting Pick

Sunny is a fantastic decision fighter that has picked apart the best the flyweight division has to offer. He dismantled the gameplans of stronger boxers, including Mthalane, the only fighter to beat Waseem. Expect a 12 round clinic in technical british boxing.

Story of the Fight

Waseem is the #10 Flyweight in the world but the #1 in Pakistan and the Middle East. He currently holds the WBC Silver Fly Title. Sunny is the reigning champion holding the IBF title. Sunny is expected to wear down Waseem in a methodical decision win, while Waseem has the puncher’s chance and knockout power to go with it. 

Tale of the Tape for 

Fighter  Sunny ‘Showtime’ Edwards Muhammad ‘Falcon’ Waseem 
Ranking  #1 #10
Age 26 34
Height 5’3’’ 5’6’’
Reach NA 66’’ 
Total Fights 17 13
Record 17-0  12-1
Knockouts 4, 23% 8, 61%
Stance Orthodox  Orthodox 
125 89
Inactivity  98 Days  113 Days 

Weight class

Light  Light 
Boxing trainer  Grant Smith  Muhammat Tariq, Fransisco Ronald, Others

Sunny is giving up height and reach to the challenger on paper, but they look the same build in pictures and video of weigh-ins. It’s not uncommon to exaggerate build to throw off opponents, I would say Waseem is no taller than 5’4’’. 

Maybe it’s the hat, but that’s not a three inch height advantage.
The knockout percentage difference is dramatic, but Sunny has been fighting high caliber fighters for his last six bouts at least, including undefeated Jayson Mama and the 39-2 Moruti Mthalane. Waseem lost to Mthalane via decision in 2018 and has knocked out a majority lower level fighter. His biggest win was over the undefeated Magramo in 2016 after Magramo lost a point from a headbutt in a very strange fight and decision. From an odds and betting perspective, the knockout percentage means less than it should because of their opponent’s caliber. Sunny Edwards vs Muhammad Waseem is a fight where every advantage needs to add up for a Waseem bet to even be considered.

Comparing the Fighters Trainers

Grant Smith is an elusive legend and a great boxer in his own right. He’s currently only training Sunny and his son, undefeated Dalton Smith. Smith is considered one of the top five trainers in London, and his work with Denis Radovan proved it. 
Wassem’s current trainer is unknown, but he’s worked with the recently deceased champion Muhammad Tariq and was on an onlympic team under legend Francisco Ronald. 
I see the consistent tutelage of Grant Smith to be a boon on any bets for Sunny. 

Betting Odds for Edwards vs Waseem 

Bet Odds for Money Lines on March 19th, 2022
Sunny Edwards Money Line -2000
Muhammad Waseem Money Line +1000

Sunny was a -280 over Jayson Mama and upset Mthalane at +130. He’s ranged from -600 to -3000 in eleven other bouts since 2019. Waseem was a favorite in his bout with Mthalane, fumbling at -165. He’s won all other fights from -900 to -2500. There are currently no prop bets for this fight. Sunny’s money line is $0.05 per dollar wagered, but a good addition to any parlay ticket through a big weekend in boxing. 

Boxing Analysis for Edwards vs Waseem

The Mthalane fight is telling in how both fighters approach a win. Waseem relies on his power. It’s not just a feature of his boxing, he needs to land big shots to win. Edwards is a cumulation striker, with good head movement. He’s been called ‘Price Naseem Version 2.” 
Edwards has a style focused on not getting hit and bating fighters into punches they shouldn’t take. 

Edwards, Waseem vs Mthalane

Mthlane couldn’t find his range against Edwards, an issue many fighters have. Going to the body didn’t seem to help as Edwards kept counterpunching off the back foot. Watching his performance versus Waseem’s, you get a feel for the Edwards vs Waseem odds having such a wide gap. 
Mthalane was landing on the gloves of Waseem from the opening bell. He was hoping to feel out Mthalane, but instead he was simply worn down. Staying in Mthalane’s range was a mistake, and Muhammed has heavy hands but slow feet. He plants his feet to strike and I think he’ll be chasing Edwards with no significant strikes the whole night. 

How can Muhammed Waseem Beat Sunny Edwards?

Waseem needs to go to the body early with hooks to corral Edwards into standing still. He can play with his jab more than he did in the Mthalane fight. Dealing with Sunny’s head movement can be done with body shots or a bit of dirty fighting. Waseem would charge into the pocket, punch, and then tie up to stop the counter shot, weighing on the shorter fighter like a tiny Tyson Fury. Muhammed is more physical than Sunny, who likes to move and hardly ever finds himself in the clinch in any recent fights. 
Waseem needs to improve on his defense and headmovmenet well beyond where it was against Mthalane in order to even have a chance of winning. 

Edwards vs Waseem Boxing Pick Wrap Up

One worry is that in the UAE Waseem will be favored in an upset decision. I don’t think the fight will be close enough for that to make sense. Sunny’s betting odds are even a bit low for this fight, presumably because there are no props available. Having Edwards closer to the -3500 is realistic in my opinion. Waseem is in this fight, but he needs to box in a way we’ve never seen him perform before. 

Jacob Clark / Author

Jacob Clark had a 15 year career as a professional MMA fighter, coach, and Greg Jackson’s alum. Now, TikTok’s 12th most important BJJ influencer is bringing his sports and betting knowledge to you here at TheSportsGeek. He spends his time cooking vietnamese food and playing D&D with his family. You can meet him at jiu-jitsu open mats all over Indiana.

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