We’re taking a deep look at each of the major prop bets for the Tyson Fury vs Deontay Wilder fight. I’ve classified the bets into low, medium and high risk, offering my pick in each category.
It can be tough to make sense of each prop, especially if you’re new to boxing betting. I’m here to ease your concerns and build the best bet possible for Saturday night. All of these props are currently available at major sportsbooks.
Low Risk Prop Bets for Fury vs Wilder
Low Risk props include the mid range over and under bets.
|Prop Bet||6 ½ Rounds||7 ½ Rounds||8 ½ Rounds||9 ½ Rounds||10 ½ Rounds|
|Under||+150||+107||-125, $0.80||-150, $0.67||-190, $0.53|
Fight two between Wilder and Fury ended in round seven, you can see the odds flip as the over takes underdog status from 8 ½ and beyond. You’ll see I placed the payout per dollar wagered next to each of the bets I’m considering.
Deontay isn’t one to fight a safe flight. He’s only met decisions for two fights his whole career: First with Bermane Stiverne and second with Fury in their first fight.
Deontay has knocked Fury down twice, indicating he does have the power to finish Fury. Each fighter is older, and the cumulative effect of punches will make a decision less likely.
Another great option with a slightly less risky payout is betting on if the fight goes to decision.
|Fight Goes to Decision||+215, $2.15 per dollar wagered return|
|Fight Doesn’t go to Decision||-275, $0.36 per dollar wagered return|
I can see why betting on a decision makes sense, the first fight ended in a decision and it’s a great payout. However, Fury’s new weight hasn’t seen a decision. Moving up to 275 lbs. isn’t going to make the later rounds any easier. I think the later the fight goes the better chance Deontay has, assuming he has a good answer for the clench work.
Considering the most likely outcomes and worthwhile payout, I like the Under 10 ½ Rounds prop. You’re going to make .5 times your wager on a win, and over 90% of their collective fights fall into the under 10 ½ rounds category. Granted, many of these fights are six and eight rounders, but they claimed knockouts in the first four on all occasions.
Additionally, ‘Fight Starts Round x’ prop bets are offered for this fight. In these bets you’re wagering whether or not the fight will make it to a specific round, these are similar to over under bets, and often safer as you are not accounting for half rounds.
In addition, you’re covered no matter what happens after. If you bet the fight will see round three, once the fight sees round three, you’ll be paid. It’s more simple than over/unders and great for new betters.
|Prop Bet Type||Round 8||Round 9||Round 10|
|Fight Starts Round||-140||-105||+120|
|Fight Won’t Start Round||+120||-115||-140|
Let’s compare the bet ‘fight won’t start round ten’ and the ‘Under 10 ½ Rounds’ prop bet. You’d be getting -140 instead of -190, a $0.71 payout against a $0.53 payout. Still, I consider the number of late round knockouts between the two fighters and Deontay’s late fight knockdowns in fight one.
The slight risk isn’t worth the added payout.
Medium Risk Prop Bets for Fury vs Wilder
I would consider some of the Under prop bets for this bout. The fighters are older, heavier and more worn. Deontay took a brutal beating in fight one, and sometimes a rematch under these conditions results in an even earlier stoppage.
More often, great fights evolve, and rematches after unexpected knockouts often go to decision.
I expect a longer fight, but I could see why fans of either fighter might bet Under 5 ½ Rounds for a lucrative payout.
Wilder only landed 34 punches in the second fight, and 84 the first. I don’t feel like it was competitive enough for an early finish.
|Prop Bet||3 ½ Rounds||4 ½ Rounds||5 ½ Rounds|
Another interesting bet is ‘wins inside the distance.’ This prop will pay out if a fighter wins by TKO or DQ, and any other result will payout if the other fighter wins, there is a draw, or a decision of any kind.
|Fighter||Wins Inside the Distance||Any Other Result|
Wilder fans may be tempted by the +355, given that if Wilder doesn’t knock the opponent out it probably didn’t go well for him. The first fight ending in a draw was the result of some strange judging and the compubox punch stats had Fury as a clear winner.
A Fury TKO gives us all of the safety of the 10 ½ Round Under from the low risk bets, but only covers a Fury win, which feels likely given bouts one and two.
Any other result is a great bet for Wilder. Yes, -445 only pays at $0.22 per dollar wagered, but It’s a strong bet given Wilder’s inability to finish Fury two fights running. I don’t think Wilder is even considering a decision.
— Deontay Wilder (@BronzeBomber) October 2, 2021
High Risk Prop Bets for Fury vs Wilder
The highest risk prop bets include round calling, such as ‘Fury wins in round 7’ which would net you +1200. These high risk bets are tough to call, but given the information we have from the first two fights, a trilogy seems like the best time to call them.
In some boxing bouts, props that include a win in specific round ranges are added. ‘Fury wins in rounds 4-6’ is a prop bet that pays +455 or $4.55 per dollar wagered.
Earlier, I talked about the effects of added weight on Fury. If you’re a Wilder fan, I’d suggest the prop bet ‘Wilder wins in rounds 10-12’ for +1530 odds, 15.3 times your wager in winnings. A lighter fighter with such a strong knockout percentage should be able to wait out and finish a larger fighter given the right stick and move strategy.
Last, the ‘fight will start round 10’ is a great high risk underdog prop. It pays out $1.20 per dollar wagered at +120, and given that it fits the criteria of the first fight between these two in addition to covering you for late round knockouts, I’d consider it.