Warrington vs Martinez II Boxing Betting Pick and Odds

 Kiko Martinez is coming off a masterful upset win over Kid Galahad. He now gets a rematch in the fight with Josh Warrington, a fight he won in the compubox stats but lost to the judges. Our Martinez vs Warrington boxing betting pick has assembled the betting odds and top boxing stats to bring you our best picks. Place your bets for the Warrington vs Martinez boxing title fight by 9:00 PM ET, March 26th 2022. 

Warrington vs Martinez II Boxing Betting Prediction and Top Betting Pick

Kiko should have won the first fight and has been victim to many of boxing’s highway robberies on a fighters home turf. At 36, Kiko is toward the end of his professional career, but has somehow boxed better in his showings over the last three years. Warrington is coming off tough fights with Maricio Lara that weren’t only a blow to his career but also his body and showed Martinez that Warringotn can be knocked out like anyone else. 

Betting History and Story of the Fight

Warrington won a Majority Decision over Kiko in their first bout in May of 2017. Judges scored the fight 116-112 116-112, and 114-114 in a fight where Kiko was the obvious winner, both in rounds won and the damage dealt per round. The odds from their first bout had Kiko at +1000 to Warringtons -1375. 
Kiko has become a fighter synonymous with upsets and robberies. From the bettors perspective, Kiko by points may be the worst position you could ever take. Kiko’s loss to Zelfa Barrett was a +700 and a similar story. Martinez landed 194 punches to Barretts 117. On my scorecard, Kiko won ten of the twelve rounds in this absurd decision. 
Warrington is getting a shot that Kiko just picked off Kid Galahad despite losing and drawing in his last two fights. Kiko Martinez never backs down from anyone, and it will be exciting to see what the judges do when Kiko is the champion. 

Tale of the Tape for Warrington vs Martinez  

Fighter  Josh ‘The Leeds Warrior’ Warrington Kiko ‘La Sensation’ Martinez
Ranking  #9 #10
Age 31 36
Height 5’7’’ 5’5’’
Reach 67’’ 66’’
Total Fights 32 55
Record 30-1-1 43-10-2
Knockouts 7 30
Stance Orthodox  Orthodox
242 326
Inactivity  203 Days  133 Days 
Normal Weight class Feather Feather
Boxing trainer  Sean O’Hagan Various

In fight one, Kiko’s reach was most noticeable in jab exchanges. Martinez landed 43 jabs to Warrinton’s 54, and in rounds that were clearly won by Warrintong, such as round 2, it was a major factor. Kiko has been more active, and carries far more experience than Warrington. Run-ins like the two fights with Lara are great lessons for a young top ten contender like Warrington.

Do the Fighters Trainer’s Affect My Betting Pick?

 Sean O’Hagan is Warrington’s father. He’s not been proven at the amatuer level, and has no other champions developed out of their small Leeds gym. Warrington trains with Maxi Hughes but it’s unclear if any fighters will still continue to work with O’Hagan when Warrington is done. Kiko isn’t in a much better situation. He’s training out of Spain, where there are few boxers and fewer high level trainers. People in Kiko’s small home town reportedly walk up to the champion and rub his hands when he’s out, in a sort of surreal, small town support of a world champion. Kiko’s training is ‘Spartan Inspired’ and he stays in shape year round, and never takes breaks. I don’t think either fighter has a serious training advantage, and both would benefit from world class cross training. 

Betting Odds for for Warrington vs Martinez 

Bet Odds and Payout per Dollar Wager
Warrington Money Line -350, $0.29
Martinez Money Line +260, $2.60
Over 10 ½ Rounds -185, $0.54
Under 10 ½ Rounds  +155, $1.55
Martinez by Decision +1800
Martinez by TKO +275
Warrington by Decision -130
Warrington by TKO +275
Martinez by TKO rounds 7 to 9  +800
Warrington by TKO rounds 10 to 12  +1000
Will the Fight Go the DIstance? No -115
Will the Fight Go the DIstance? Yes +125

Warrington is a slight favorite. He was -1800 in his first ever loss to Lara and +187 in his upset over Carl Frampton. The win over Kid Galahad has similar odds, putting Warrington at -300 to Kid’s +305 at closing.
Kiko fluctuates from massive underdog to massive favorite, showing everything from –4400 to +2800 to Gary Russell Jr over his last six bouts. He’s down 700 points from +1000 in his first fight with Warrington. Notice the Kiko by Points prop. Kiko can win this fight, but he has to stop Warrington. I think that the oddsmakers are taking into account the judges in Leeds. Stunning that Kiko will take his first title defense in his opponent’s home town.   

What are the Best Prop Bets for Warrington vs Martinez?

Given Warrington’s history of fighting to decision wins, the over is a bet for Warrington and the Under a bet for Kiko. I think the over is a better bet, seeing that Kiko couldn’t finish Warrington five years ago. Now that they’re both in their 30’s, and both have suffered long battles and knockout losses, the likelihood of a KO does go up slightly. 
We’ve selected our top knockout prop bets, both coming late in the fight. ‘Will the fight go the distance- no’ is a bet that assumes Warrington can get the KO, which we don’t think he can. Kiko is the only one looking for a knockout win here, and his money line pays too high to consider any props that assume he gets the finish. 

Boxing Betting Predictions for Warrington vs Martinez

We’re going to look at the Compubox data from their first fight, and from losses in both fighters’ careers. Recently, Kiko’s performances have improved and Warrington’s have dropped. Momentum is a powerful force in the fight game, and shouldn’t be underestimated when you’re placing your Warrington vs Martinez betting pick. 

Warrington vs Martinez I

Fighter  Total Punches Landed Jabs Power Shots
Kiko Martinez 169/906 43/483 126/423
Josh Warrington 172/830 54/475 118/355

Martinez landed more power shots, Warrington landed more jabs. If you judge each round individually by who landed more punches, both fighters won five rounds, with two coming down to a draw. The 116-112 judges watched a different fight than everyone else, especially when it came to ring control. 

Josh Warrington’s Recent Loss 

Warrington’s loss to Lara, the #7 featherweight, showed weaknesses in Warrington’s game when it came to counter punching. Warrington landed more jabs again, but each one was returned by Lara with left and right hooks, landing 166 in the course of nine rounds. Given that Warrington was a -1100 favorite, we would hope to see a competitive match. Josh is fading due to the stagnancy of his camp, the lack of high level coaching, and mismanagement of head movement after his jab. 

Kiko’s Upset Win Over Galahad

Galahad is the #9 Super feather and has only lost to Warrington and Kiko. Kiko was taking a beating from Galahad early, getting chipped away at with everything. Galahad landed 130 punches to Martinez 49 before a hook in the sixth round, the very first punch thrown, put the champ away. 
Kiko is finally believing in his power, something that Warrington never learned to do. This new Kiko Martinez, imbued with the ability to comeback against top level fighters, is going to be trouble for a stumbling fighter like Warrington to deal with. 

You can out jab his short arms, but you better respect the power of Kiko.

Boxing Pick Wrap Up

If you’re looking for more boxing picks through the weekend, start with our Tszyu vs Gausha betting pick. It’s a solid fight for parlaying alongside your combat sports ticket through the weekend.
Betting on Kiko Martinez may feel scary, but it’s less about what Kiko can do and more about what Warrington has been through in his last few fights. Warrington is a fighter that knows he’s too old to breach the top five with a loss to Lara, and his father is convinced he’s the best boxing trainer for Warrington. He could have a career (and we could have a more confident betting pick) if he sought outside help from other top level trainers. 
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Jacob Clark / Author

Jacob Clark had a 15 year career as a professional MMA fighter, coach, and Greg Jackson’s alum. Now, TikTok’s 12th most important BJJ influencer is bringing his sports and betting knowledge to you here at TheSportsGeek. He spends his time cooking vietnamese food and playing D&D with his family. You can meet him at jiu-jitsu open mats all over Indiana.

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