Air Force Falcons at Colorado State Rams – NCAAM March 1

Air Force (5-18, 3-16) at Colorado State (15-4, 12-3)

  • Time: 7 PST – 9 CST – 10 EST
  • Place: Moby Coliseum, Fort Collins, Colo.
  • TV: CBS Sports Network

Opening Tip:

Air Force is in it’s customary spot in the Mountain West as the Falcons went down to Colorado State, 72-49, on Saturday and are looking for what will be a fleeting measure of revenge against the focused Rams.

While the Falcons are seemly the only team in the MW to play the full 20-game schedule, they have lost 11 of 12 and broke a 10-game losing streak with a 62-55 win over New Mexico last Wednesday.

Meanwhile, Colorado State enters the week tied for first place in the Mountain west with San Diego State and the Rams have their eyes set on the school’s first NCAA Tournament bid since 2013. Finishing off the Falcons comes first though as the Rams have rescheduled games with New Mexico and Nevada later in the week. The Rams’ NET ranking is currently 43 and will potentially climb into a solid place if they can sweep the week and get at least to the semifinals of the Mountain West Tournament next week.

Colorado State has an 83-33 advantage in the series as Saturday’s game was the first in three weeks for CSU due to opponents’ covid protocols. Colorado State’s 12-3 MW record is their best through 15 games in conference history.

Vs. The Spread:

Air Force:

  • The Falcons sport a 4-8 ledger ATS in their last 12 goes
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of the last 6 Air Force games
  • AFA is 0-5 ATS in it’s last 5 games vs Colorado State

Colorado State:

  • CSU is 6-3 ATS in it last 9 outings
  • The UNDER has been the play in 4 of the last 5 Rams games
  • The Rams are 12-1 SU in their last 13 home games vs. the Falcons

Last Time Out:

Colorado State separated from Air Force early and shot 61 percent from the floor as the Rams plucked the Falcons, 72-49. David Roddy and Isaiah Stevens scored 19 points each to lead Colorado State. CSU’s offense was on fire in the second half as the Rams made 73.9 percent of their shots from the field  (17-of-23). A.J. Walker led three Falcons in double figures with 13 points.

Teams Spread Money Line Total Points
Air Force +18 (-112) +950 O 134 (-103)
Colorado State -18 (-108) -2200 U 134 (-117)

Advantage, Air Force:

Air Force Falcons LogoPoint guard A.J. Walker (15.8 ppg, 3.2 rpg) is the biggest offensive weapon for the Falcons as he shoots 47.7 from the floor in making 48 threes while balancing his game by converting off the dribble. Walker needs help from his teammates, especially the inside tandem of Nikc Jackson (8.5 ppg, 3.4 rpg) and Ameka Akaya (6.5 ppg, 3.2 rpg) since the Rams do not have a rim protector. The Falcons are at a (-10.7) on the glass and are at an extreme disadvantage with the athleticism that Colorado State possesses.

Key Falcons Stat:

Chris Joyce is a viable three-point option on the perimeter with Walker. Joyce is 3-of-16 from three-point range over the Falcons’ last six games as he is still second in made triples with 33.

X-Factor:

Trying to pound the Rams in the paint is the Falcons’ best option since they make 54.4 percent (37th/NCAA) of their two-point tries. Colorado State only has 44 blocked shots in it’s 19 games and allow a 51 percent shooting percentage inside the arc (223rd/NCAA).

Advantage, Colorado State:

Surrounding the three-point line and raining threes is the signature for the Rams as they shoot 38.4 percent from distance. Adam Thistlewood has the most makes on the squad with 36 while Kendle Moore makes 39.8 percent of his tries. David Roddy (16.1 ppg) and Isaiah Stevens (15.1 ppg) are the top two scorers on the team as Stevens is a 45.8 percent on the season. Roddy is a hard matchup as an athletic and quick 6-5 power forward in what is mostly a 4-out, 1-in offensive attack.

Key Rams Stat:

The efficient offense has been a mainstay for the Rams as they now have six consecutive games where they have made 50 percent or more of their field goals which has been the biggest reason that they have won five of their last six games. The Rams are sixth in the NCAA in effective field goal percentage at 57.2, per kenpom analytics.

X-Factor:

The focus and the will to compete at a high level and get to the NCAA Tournament is Colorado State. Medved is accomplished at flipping programs and getting them to the next level as he did at Drake and Furman. As these back-to-back scenarios have been hard for the winner of the first game to sweep, Colorado State has swept three and a win here would make for the fourth this season.

WINNER: Colorado State 73, Air Force (+18) 58

The Bets
Colorado State -18
-108
Colorado State
-2200
UNDER 134
-117
Sub Categories:
Kenneth Cross / Author

Kenneth Cross is a new entry to The Sports Geek staff as he has 25 years of experience in print, broadcast, and internet sports journalism. Cross is a lover of all sports, but college basketball is his passion. He estimates that he has seen around 1,500 college basketball games - live and in-person - and hopes that grows this season. If you listen to Radio, you have likely heard him on Sundays covering the Carolina Panthers for some 20 years. Now in Tampa Bay, he works as a national radio correspondent.