Alabama Crimson Tide at LSU Tigers – NCAAM January 19

Alabama (11-3, 6-0) at LSU (10-2, 5-1)

Time: 6 PST – 8 CST – 9 EST
Place: Pete Maravich Assembly Center, Baton Rouge, La.
TV: ESPN

Tide-Tigers Close Lately:

Alabama has a 109-74 lead overall, but the two teams split last season and have split the last six. LSU took both games in 2018. LSU has a 50-33 advantage in Baton Rouge and has won the last at home. The Tigers have won five in a row after an early season loss to Florida while Alabama sits on top of the SEC with the Tigers and Tennessee at one-game back.

Vs the Spread:

Alabama:

  • The Crimson Tide check in at 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games
  • Bama is 7-3 ATS in it’s last 10 games vs. LSU
  • Alabama is 10-3-1 ATS in it’s last 14 road games

LSU:

  • The OVER has been the play in 6 of the last 9 games between the Tide and Tigers
  • 4 of the last 5 LSU games have gone OVER the number
  • The OVER has been the play in 6 of the last 9 games between LSU and Alabama in Baton Rouge
Teams Spread Money Line Total Points
Alabama -1 (-110) -117 O 164½ (-110)
LSU +1 (-110) -103 U 164½ (-110)

Last Time Out:

The Crimson Tide won it’s seventh in a row by blitzing Arkansas, 90-59, at home on Saturday. John Petty continues his hot streak as he made 5-of-9 threes in scoring 17 points. Jaden Shackelford posted 16 and Herb Jones netted 15. Alabama is now 10-0 when scoring 40 or more points.

LSU trailed by as many as 11 in the first half in it’s 85-80 win over South Carolina on Saturday, but used two 8-0 runs in the second half to secure the win. Cam Thomas led the Tigers with 25 points and Trendon Watford netted 23. LSU shot 51.7 percent from the floor and scored 51 second half points.

Crimson Tide Stat Pack:
  • Alabama has made 39-of-96 threes in it’s last three games as the last two wins over Kentucky and Arkansas were decided by an average of 25.5 points.
  • Herb Jones ranks atop three of coach Nate Oats’ four hustle stats as he has taken four chearges, made 12 floor dives and is 4-for-5 on and-1s
  • Four players average double figures in Jaden Shackelford (13.6), John Petty Jr. (13.5), Herb Jones (12.6) and Jahvon Quinerly (12.5). Together, the four combine to account for 52.2 of the Tide’s 80.1 points per game.

Crimson Tide Grease Board:

Alabama Crimson Tide LogoTwo of the nation’s best and most efficient offenses square off with first place on the line. The Crimson Tide is 22nd in offensive efficiency, per KenPom, while LSU is at a paltry 5th.  Both of these teams love the 3-Ball, so that’s where we start with the Crimson Tide who net 34.1 percent from behind the arc. LSU is a much tougher defender from three as Tigers’ opponents at 27.6 percent. Petty (15.8 ppg, 5.2 rpg) and Shackelford (13.2 ppg, 3.5 rpg) are one and two with 18 and 11 makes respectively. Alabama finds the triple in transition much more consistently than most teams and that is the charge for the LSU defense. Alabama needs a big game from Jones (11.7 ppg, 4.8 rpg) as well against imposing Tigers’ bigs in Watford and Darius Days.

Tigers Stat Pack:
  • Cam Thomas comes into the game leading the SEC in scoring at 22.1 points per game as he leads the Tigers in field goals made (80) and attempted (190).
  • Trendon Watford (18.7 ppg), Javonte Smart (15.2 ppg) and Darius Days (13.7 ppg) join Thomas in averaging 69.7 of LSU’s 86.1 points per outing.
  • LSU leads the SEC in steals per game at 9.3 per game as Days checks in to lead the team with 18.

Tigers Grease Board:

LSU Tigers LogoThomas (28), Javonte Smart (28) and Days (23) put tons of pressure on defenses with their three-point prowess as LSU shoots 36.7 percent from behind the arc. Alabama though needs the consistency from behind the arc more – the Tide has taken 417 triples while LSU checks in with 278. Days has a major impact inside as well as he shoots 56.1 percent from the floor and could be the X-Factor. Watford and Days inside have an advantage over anyone Alabama throws at them except for Jones.

Winner: LSU (+1) 86, Alabama 80
O/U:Take OVER 164½

The Bets
LSU +1
-110
OVER 164½
-110
Kenneth Cross / Author

Kenneth Cross is a new entry to The Sports Geek staff as he has 25 years of experience in print, broadcast, and internet sports journalism. Cross is a lover of all sports, but college basketball is his passion. He estimates that he has seen around 1,500 college basketball games - live and in-person - and hopes that grows this season. If you listen to Radio, you have likely heard him on Sundays covering the Carolina Panthers for some 20 years. Now in Tampa Bay, he works as a national radio correspondent.