Arkansas vs. Florida Pick – March 1st

Two of the hottest teams in the country meet up tonight when the Arkansas Razorbacks visit the Florida Gators.  The spread is wide, but is it wide enough to hold off the Gators?

The final week of the regular season began with some excitement on the Bubble as several bubble dweller notched significant wins while several other bubble-dwellers probably saw their hopes finally pop.  Indiana and Vanderbilt had major chances to salvage their season with games against Top 20 opponents.  Neither gave a real convincing effort in their shortcoming.

Meanwhile, Ohio State (dealt us the loss) got a late bucket to beat Penn State 71-70 and Georgia Tech got major wins to keep their hopes either alive, or stronger, respectively.  Meanwhile, a win by Providence at DePaul doesn’t necessarily “strengthen” their resume, but in this season of attrition and carnage, sometimes just avoiding a devastating loss can be enough.  They aren’t IN, but they aren’t OUT either, and sometimes, that is sufficient to earn a Dance card…

We will try to get back on track tonight with a bunch of quality action on the docket.  The schedule highlights tonight include Marquette at Xavier, in a game that is surprisingly more bubble-impacting than one would have thought five weeks ago, Arkansas looking to lock up their bid at Florida, Michigan at Northwestern as the Wildcats are SO CLOSE to the goal, but face a red-hot Michigan squad, and a HUUUGE game between Dayton and VCU that will decide the A-10 regular season champ.

Let’s see if we can get this week rolling with a W tonight.

Today’s College Basketball Pick:

Arkansas Razorbacks at Florida Gators -11

I got burned last week fading Florida with a late South Carolina sputter second half and an eventual 15-point win by the Gators.  However, there are some pretty advanced modeling sims out there that not only have the Razorbacks covering, but also winning OUTRIGHT.  That got my attention as to how good of a game this could be potentially.

Arkansas enters on a five-game winning streak that includes comfortable wins at South Carolina and Auburn.  They’ve gone 11-5 in conference and have won eight of eleven overall.  Arkansas is equal to Florida over their last ten games at 7-3 ATS and is one better ATS in conference play at 10-6 ATS.  They are also a VERY solid 6-2 on the road, both straight up and against the spread.

I am not saying Arkansas is the better team.  Florida is the better squad overall and has had a brilliant season to exceed expectation.  This pick is more respecting the number, eleven points, against a similarly-good opponent who enters playing excellent basketball.

I’m betting on a quality game, and a quality game should fall well inside the lofty eleven-point margin.

Today’s Pick:  Arkansas Razorbacks +11