Conference play tends to be the most profitable time of the year for a sharp college basketball bettor, but I’m not sure even I expected to be running as hot as we are right now! In the last two weeks, we have reeled off ten wins in eleven bets, including nine straight! And there has been a consistent theme to these bets, home underdogs in league play.
Last night we picked up a big upset winner when we backed the Oregon State Beavers as home underdogs against the Arizona Wildcats. I did end up snatching up the points but expected the Beavers to shock the world and knock off the very talented and highly ranked Wildcats. And that is just what happened.
Oregon State dominates No. 24 Arizona in Corvallis! pic.twitter.com/pOGb2S0Qu8
— NCAA March Madness (@marchmadness) January 13, 2020
Not only did Oregon State win this game, they dominated it. They led by as many as twenty points, and the 82-65 final score doesn’t even show how dominant this game was in the second have for the Beavers. Oregon State shot nearly 70% from the field in the second half against an Arizona team with one of the highest-rated defenses in the country.
The win was a huge one for Oregon State, as they are back on track to go dancing in March with the signature win. For Arizona, the Wildcats have lost five out of their last eight games and they must quickly turn things around if they want any shot at competing with Oregon for the Pac-12 regular-season title.
Just this week, we have picked up wins backing home dogs in league play when we backed Cal, Iowa, Rutgers, and now Oregon State. For today’s daily betting pick, we will keep that trend going as we head to Loyola Maryland, where the Greyhounds host the Boston University Terriers.
- Boston U (9-8) at Loyola Maryland (9-8)
- Reitz Arena, Baltimore
- 4:00 PM PST
- TV: CBSS
The Boston University Terriers are looking to keep pace with conference kingpin Colgate, atop the standings in the Patriot League tonight, as they head to Loyola Maryland to play the Greyhounds. BU has won six out of their last seven games, and they have jumped out to a 3-1 start in league play. The one loss came at American on the road last week, and the Terriers will be looking for their first road win in league play tonight.
— Loyola Men's BKB (@LoyolaMBB) January 13, 2020
For the Greyhounds, they have really struggled out of the gates in Patriot League play, as after winning their first game, they have lost three straight. The Greyhounds were expected to finish in the top half of the league this season, and they need to start finding ways to win games against solid competition if they want to finish with a winning record in a better than most people likely think Patriot League this year.
Boston University Terriers
Max Mahoney currently holds the distinction of being the best player in the Patriot League. The senior forward leads the team in scoring and rebounding at sixteen and eight a game and shoots over 60% from the field for his career. We saw just how explosive he can be against Binghamton when he dropped thirty-eight points and thirteen rebounds against the Bearcats.
When the Terriers lost on the road against American, Mahoney had the worst game of his season as he scored just five points on 33% shooting. If BU is going to find a way to win on the road in a hostile environment tonight, they are going to need a much better effort out of the best player.
Loyola Maryland Greyhounds
While Loyola’s record doesn’t look all that impressive at 9-8, many of their losses have come against decent competition. The Patriot League has just three teams in the top-200 with Colgate leading the way at #121, followed by Lafayette at #189 and then BU at #198. And when you look at the losses for Loyola MD, seven of their eight losses have come against teams in the top-200, including top-50 losses to Marquette and VCU.
One place that the Greyhounds have thrived is at home, where they are 5-1. Their one home loss came in their last game against Lafayette, in a nail-biter that came down to the final few possessions. So, while the Greyhounds certainly aren’t what I would call a good team, they are respectable on their home floor.
Who Do I Like?
I love small conference college basketball. These aren’t players playing for a shot at NBA stardom, these are guys playing for the love of the game. And with so little actionable data out there on these teams, you can find some really juicy numbers.
This number opened up at even money, and to me, that made sense. Kenpom has the Greyhounds winning this by one point, so even money didn’t seem all that far off. But the betting public has hammered BU overnight and moved this line four points! Where it stands now at Loyola MD +4, I see huge value in backing the home team.
Two of my favorite plays are backing home dogs in league play, and fading public line moves, and I get to do both of those today. The opening line is always going to be the most accurate based on the data, and when a book adjusts, they are doing it to respond to the action, not because they all of the sudden changed their minds.
So, going the other way means you get to take advantage of a flawed line that the books were forced to move. That is always a great spot for value. And that is just what I will do today. Home dogs in league play are a honey hole for me, and the fact that they likely wouldn’t even be home dogs if it weren’t for the public’s collective ignorance, makes it that much sweeter. Give me the Loyola Maryland Greyhounds tonight at home, getting +4 points!