Cal Poly Mustangs vs. UC Davis Aggies Pick – NCAAB March 8, 2022

The Cal Poly SLO Mustangs and UC Davis Aggies are scheduled to meet for a lower-seed matchup at the Dollar Loan Center to open the Big West Tournament.

Some conferences have already played their championship game. Then in the Big West, they are just getting started in Henderson, Nevada.

Henderson is a suburb of Vegas, so this is another Las Vegas conference tournament. The Big West Tournament will conclude with the Big West Championship between Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga tonight.

The Pac-12 Tournament is also taking place in Las Vegas, this one the most notable tournament at T-Mobile Arena on The Strip. The best team in Las Vegas might be at the Orleans Arena on Tuesday night, though.

This is a first-round matchup between two teams that don’t expect to be going to the NCAA Tournament. Occasionally teams with nothing to lose are the most dangerous, though.

There is going to be an upset or two in a conference tournament, and Cal Poly and UC Davis hope they’re involved. The No. 10 seed, Cal Poly, winning the Big West would be one heck of an upset.

Cal Poly is going into the Big West Tournament at 7-20 on the season. They finished 2-12 in the conference and didn’t look like a team that should be playing postseason basketball.

The Mustangs looked much better to close out the season, though. They are on a rare two-game winning streak after an 80-76 win over UC San Diego three days back.

This came after Cal Poly beat UC Irvine 65-54 on March 3. It was the first time that Cal Poly won back-to-back games.

Head below for our free Cal Poly vs. UC Davis prediction on March 8, 2022.

Cal Poly Mustangs vs. UC Davis Aggies Betting Odds and Team Statistics:

The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Cal Poly Mustangs +6 (-105) +215 Over 126 (-110)
UC Davis Aggies -6 (-115) -225 Under 126 (-110)
Team Data Cal Poly Mustangs UC Davis Aggies
Overall Record 7-20 12-10
ATS Record 14-12-0 11-8-1
Points Per Game 61.8 68.6
Points Against Per Game 67.5 66.7
Field Goal % 40.9 44.8
Three Point % 29.3 34.1

Cal Poly vs. UC Davis Prediction:

Cal Poly has to avoid reverting back to their previous form. They’ve been unusually good recently from the field.

The Mustangs scoring 80 points is a big deal. It’s only the second time in the Big West schedule that Cal Poly scored 80 points in a game.

Overall this season, Cal Poly has been unable to score consistently. They are 345th in the NCAA with 61.8 points per game and a 40.9% field goal percentage.

It is tough from beyond the arch for Cal Poly. Their inability to shoot from three has held them back considerably. The Mustangs are almost last in the NCAA, with a three-point percentage of 29.3%.

UC Davis hasn’t been all that hot recently. They are coming off back-to-back losses versus Long Beach State, 68-65, and CSU Fullerton, 62-59.

Despite the losses, UC Davis covered both spreads and went into the Big West Tournament in three straight.

Cal Poly Mustangs vs. UC Davis Aggies Betting Trends:

Cal Poly
  • 5-12 ATS in their previous 17 games on a neutral court
  • The underdog is 2-9 ATS in their previous 11 games versus UC Davis
  • 3-13 overall in their previous 16 games in March
  • 2-7 overall in their previous nine games as an underdog
  • 5-2 ATS in their previous seven games after a win
UC Davis
  • 20-5-2 ATS in their previous 27 games in their previous 27 games after a loss
  • The favorite is 9-2 ATS in their previous 11 games versus Cal Poly
  • 4-1 ATS in their previous five games on a Tuesday
  • UNDER is 8-2 in thier previous ten games versus the Big West
  • UNDER is 5-1 in their previous six games versus Cal Poly

UC Davis isn’t a sharpshooting team, but they certainly hold the advantage over Cal Poly in this regard. The Aggies are shooting 44.8% from the field and scoring 68.6 points per game.

They have a slight advantage defensively, but this looks like a wash. UC Davis is allowing 66.7 points per game and a 41.4% FGA this season. Cal Poly has allowed slightly more points.

After two straight wins, which is something that Cal Poly hasn’t experienced this season, expect the Mustangs to have it tough tonight. I don’t have confidence in Cal Poly shooting well again.

Keep in mind both of those wins were at home. This is a neutral site, but Cal Poly has won only two games on the road and split a win and loss on a neutral floor this season.

I’m siding with UC Davis to win and edge ahead in the second half for a 74-64 win.


Cal Poly vs. UC Davis Pick
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.

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