Cincinnati vs. UConn Pick – March 5th

We snapped our college hoops losing skid yesterday by simply betting on the sun to come up; Kansas winning a conference game and enjoying a well-deserved victory lap for their 13th consecutive Big 12 conference crown.  The Jayhawks were certainly pushed, but in the end were just a little too much for Brad Underwood’s resilient Oklahoma State squad and pulled out the 80-75 victory.

Elsewhere, Grayson Allen elbowed a dude (on purpose?!) and, the buried lead, North Carolina beat Duke to win the ACC outright – quite an accomplishment when you consider this might be the best and deepest conference in modern college basketball history.  Louisville and Kentucky protected their seeds with good wins, Butler and Florida took slight damage to their with less-than-great losses and in a larger overall picture, things remained basically where they have been for several months – WIDE OPEN.

You can find five or six different “favorites” at sportsbooks up and down the Vegas Strip to win the NCAA Tournament and could make a reasonable wagering case for about a dozen teams.

This week is going to be FUN – Conference Tournament time with tons of bubble-bursting soon to ensue.

Today’s College Basketball Pick:

Cincinnati Bearcats -5 at UConn Huskies

We got burnt backing the ‘Cats on the road at underrated UCF last week, but it doesn’t mean I am ready to throw all the other data and college hoops visual observations out the window.  UConn is a mess.  Cincinnati is a very good basketball team – it’s kind of that simple.

Cincinnati lost at UCF, but prior to that contest had reeled off 18 wins in 19 games, the only loss coming at SMU – a similarly profiled NCAA Tournament team.  UConn, meanwhile, enters today at just 14-15 overall and 9-8 in the mediocre AAC Conference.   They had a nice little four game run, winning at UCF and Temple, but have most recently dropped three straight, including an ugly loss at East Carolina.  Home is helpful, but it won’t cure all what ails the Huskies in 2017.

UConn is 10-16 ATS this season and just 7-10 ATS in AAC play.  They are a decent 6-2 at home in conference straight up but just 3-5 ATS.  Also, keep in mind, most AAC home games are not against Top 50 or even Top 75 teams – today is their sternest test in quite a while.

UConn is just 2-7 SU as a dog this season – meaning good teams usually get the jump on them.  Cincinnati is 15-1 SU when favored, meaning they don’t usually sleep on inferior competition.

I’ll take UC to finish off a strong conference season and maintain solid seeding position heading into the NCAA Tournament and likely seeding-determining conference championship game against SMU.

Today’s Pick:  Cincinnati Bearcats -5