Dayton Flyers at St. Bonaventure Bonnies – NCAAM March 1

Dayton (12-8, 8-7) at St. Bonaventure (13-3, 11-4)

  • Time: 1PM PST | 4PM CST | 5PM EST
  • Location: Reilly Center, Olean, NY
  • TV: ESPNU

Opening Tip

This is the last day of Atlantic 10 play until the conference reconvenes in Richmond later this week to crown an A-10 tournament champion. But first things first, St. Bonaventure can win the regular season outright with a win over the Dayton Flyers this afternoon.

The Bonnies are looking to stake the outright claim to the league title and, as with the case of playing through COVID-19, the seeding and outright champions are based on winning percentage.

St. Bonaventure has won three in a row and four out of their last five as the Bonnies look like they may be peaking at the right time.

Dayton has lost three out of four and have been a nemesis to St. Bonaventure throughout the series history. Dayton has a 13-3 all-time record and the Flyers have won eight out of the last 10 in the series.

Vs. The Spread

Dayton:

  • The Flyers are 8-4 ATS int heir last 12 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of the last 6 UD outings
  • Dayton is 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games vs. St. Bonaventure

St. Bonaventure:

  • The Bonnies check in at 9-2-2 ATS in their last 13 games
  • The UNDER has been the call in 12 of the last 14 Bonnies games
  • The total has gone OVER in the last 10 games between the Flyers and Bonnies

Last Time Out

Saint Joseph’s made 18 three-point field goals as the Flyers never could get the Hawks’ perimeter game under control in a 97-84 loss last Wednesday. SJU put up 54 first half points and never trailed. Jalen Crutcher led Dayton with 17 points.

Alejandro Vasquez came off the bench to score 18 points as St. Bonaventure ran away from George Washington, 88-41, on Friday. The Bonnies made a season-high 15 three-pointers as Jaren Holmes also had 18 points while Dominick Welch had 14 points and seven boards and Kyle Lofton netted 12 points and 10 assists.

Teams Spread Money Line Total Points
Dayton +7.5 (-114) +275 O 132 (-110)
St. Bonaventure -7.5 (-106) -330 U 132 (-110)

Advantage, Dayton

Dayton Flyers LogoThe Flyers have had trouble taking care of the basketball all season as they have proliferated 14.0 turnover per game and have a turnover percentage rate of 20.8 per 100 possessions (264th/NCAA). Jalen Crutcher (18.8 ppg, 4.9 apg) has had a solid season in leading the Flyers in scoring and running the point for coach Anthony Grant. Crutcher (42) and Ibi Watson (51) have combined for 93 three-point shots and will look to solve a tough Bonnies’ perimeter defense that has allowed opponents only 124 all season. The Bonnies’ last four opponents are only 27-98 from three and that includes a 13-for-37 mark again by Davidson on Feb. 21.

Key Flyers Stat:

The Flyers have had four losses by two points or less and five of Dayton’s seven A-10 losses who are teams that are currently below them in the Atlantic 10 standings. The latest was a 91-89 double overtime loss to Rhode Island on Feb. 16.

X-Factor:

USC transfer Elijah Weaver became eligible just before the win over Ole Miss in December. He has started 10 of his 14 games and has been a solid ball-handler for the Flyers in totaling 41 assists vs, 24 turnovers. His presence is a big reason the team’s turnover rate has fallen in Atlantic 10 play.

Advantage, St. Bonaventure

St. Bonaventure Bonnies LogoThe Bonnies should be able to take advantage of a Flyers defense that has no rim-protection as there is no much of a penchant to force turnovers on the perimeter. The starting five averages double figures for SBU as guard Kyle Lofton leads the way with 14.8 points and 5.4 assists per game and he is third in the league in assists.

Coach Mark Schmidt has a lineup that is undersized as only one player, Osun Osunniyi (10.0 ppg, 8.9 rpg) is over 6-5 and he maintains a major presence with his 6-10, 220-pound frame in the paint. Jaren Holmes and Dominick Welch will occupy the Dayton guards with their three-point acumen as they shoot 44.9 percent and 43 percent respectively.

Key Bonnies Stat:

Amazingly, St. Bonaventure has had every game on it’s schedule altered in some way by postponements, cancellations, and schedule changes due to COVID-19 since Jan. 13. With that, the Bonnies have scored five wins over teams in the top 110 in the NCAA NET while St. Bonaventure is an A-10 best No. 28 in the NET rankings.

X-Factor:

All five Bonnies starters average over 32 minutes per game, so depth could be an issue at some point as the tournaments pick up and the team is playing day-to-day. Alejandro Vasquez will be a major key as he is the first man off the bench as he is averages only 13.5 minutes and shoots 28.4 percent from the field as 12 of his 21 makes are from three.

Winner: St. Bonaventure 69, Dayton (+7.5) 62

The Bets
Dayton Flyers +7.5
-114
St. Bonaventure Bonnies
-330
UNDER 132
-110
Sub Categories:
Kenneth Cross / Author

Kenneth Cross is a new entry to The Sports Geek staff as he has 25 years of experience in print, broadcast, and internet sports journalism. Cross is a lover of all sports, but college basketball is his passion. He estimates that he has seen around 1,500 college basketball games - live and in-person - and hopes that grows this season. If you listen to Radio, you have likely heard him on Sundays covering the Carolina Panthers for some 20 years. Now in Tampa Bay, he works as a national radio correspondent.

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