Florida State Seminoles at Duke Blue Devils NCAAM Pick – February 10, 2020

We had a big day yesterday as we went undefeated on multiple picks, with the bright spot being the outright upset from Washington State over Washington. The Huskies had a total of just one true road win on the season, none of which came in league play, and on a team packed with freshman, they just haven’t been able to close out close games. So, when I saw them as three-and-a-half-point road favorites in Pullman, against a Cougars team that was 4-2 at home in Pac-12 play, I jumped all over the home team.

Once again, the Huskies failed to perform on the road, and this one wasn’t even all that competitive. WAZZU jumped out to an early lead, and despite a couple of runs from Washington, the Huskies led for less than two minutes total in this game and the Cougars coasted to a double-digit victory.

It was nice for the Cougars to continue their home floor success, and as I said in yesterday’s pick, this is a program that is on the upswing. It would take a miraculous finish to the season to see them dancing in March, but with budding superstar CJ Elleby, who dropped thirty-four points and ten rebounds last night, set to be in this program for two more years, this team will compete for an NCAA tournament birth at some point before he leaves Pullman.

For Washington, the loss was their sixth straight and their tenth in their last twelve games. While the analytics still like the Huskies, they just aren’t passing the eye-test, and it looks like this season is going to end in disappointment in Seattle. For today’s daily betting picks, we will head to the ACC, where two of the best teams in the country matchup, when Duke hosts Florida State.

Today’s Game

  • Florida State Seminoles (20-3) at Duke Blue Devils (20-3)
  • 4:00 PM PST
  • Cameron Indoor Stadium, Durham
  • TV: ESPN

The Duke Blue Devils are coming off of a huge comeback win over their archrivals, the North Carolina Tar Heels, and are now tasked with hosting one of the hottest teams in the country, in the Florida State Seminoles. The Blue Devils have won five straight games, including their last three on the road, and are happy to be back in Durham tonight for this blockbuster matchup.

For Florida State, the Seminoles have lost just one time since early December, and they have one of the best resumes in the country in terms of quality wins. Florida State has beaten top-100 teams Florida, Tennessee, Purdue, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Wake Forrest, Virginia, Notre Dame, Virginia Tech, and North Carolina. The Noles have done a great job on the road in ACC play, as they have won four out of their last five road games, including a huge win over Louisville.

Spread:

  • Florida State +8.5 (-110)
  • Duke -8.5 (-110)
Money line:

  • Florida State +315
  • Duke -385
Total Points:

  • Over 148 (-110)
  • Under 148 (-110)

Duke Blue Devils

Cameron Indoor Stadium has always been one of the toughest places to play in the country. And that has been the case this season as well, as the Blue Devils have ten home floor wins this year. But they do have two home losses, something that has been exceedingly rare during Coach K’s tenure at Duke.

We all remember the Blue Devils famously losing to Stephen F Austin in the non-conference, and they also lost to Louisville in ACC play at home. So, while Duke losing at home is rare, it isn’t unprecedented, especially this year, and the Dukies need to be on upset alert tonight against a game Florida State team.

Florida State Seminoles

The Seminoles are my pick for the most underrated team in the nation right now. And that is saying a lot considering they are in the top-10 of both major polls. But I think this team is really, really good. We already talked about the quality wins that are as impressive as any team in the nation, and when you look at how they have performed on the road, they can play in even the most hostile environments.

The Noles are strong on both sides of the floor as they are one of the higher scoring teams in the country, and they make a lot of their three-point shots and free throws. They do a great job of protecting the paint as they are ninth in the nation in blocked shots and use one of the deepest rotations in the country. In their last game, the Seminoles used a whopping sixteen players in their win against the Miami Hurricanes!

Who Do I Like?

I get it, Cameron Indoor is a tough place to win for visiting teams, but to see a team as good as this Seminoles team is, getting eight and a half points is shocking. This Florida State team has won thirteen out of their last fourteen games against a who’s who of the best teams in the ACC. I am not sure there is a team or a building that I wouldn’t like backing this Florida State team against right now, getting this many points.

The Blue Devils just played an overtime thriller against the North Carolina Tar Heels. They came back from down thirteen with their best player, Vernon Carey Jr, fouled out of the game. That win had to be emotionally and physically draining. Depth isn’t a strong point for Duke this year, and they left guys like Tre Jones and Vernon Carey Jr in the game for a long time.

And when you look at this absurd rotation for the Seminoles, where they used sixteen players in their last game, these guys are going to be rested and ready to play. Coming into this weekend, the Blue Devils had the game with North Carolina circled as the big one, not Florida State. For the Noles? They have been looking forward to this game all year long.

The Bet

I fully expect this game to come down to the final few possessions, and it wouldn’t at all surprise me if Florida State knocks them off. There is not a major gap in talent between these two teams, and the Noles showed us when they won at Louisville and at Florida, that they can win anywhere.

To be able to get an eight-and-a-half-point insurance policy seems like many points more than we would need to be long term profitable on this play. So, I will back the road team in league play, something I very rarely like to do, and back the Florida State Seminoles tonight. Give me the Florida State Seminoles tonight getting +8.5-points in Durham!

The Bet: Florida State Seminoles +8.5

My Pick
FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES +8.5
Jason Gray / Author

Jason is a true Las Vegas insider as he has called the sports betting capital of the world his home for sixteen years. Jason started out his career in gaming by running the biggest poker tournaments in the world and managing some of the biggest sportsbooks on the strip. Jason has transitioned out of casino operations and has been covering sports betting for the sports geek for just over two years. His main focus is on baseball, college basketball, and the NFL