Fresno State Bulldogs at Boise State Broncos – NCAAM January 22

Fresno State Bulldogs (5-6, 3-6) at Boise State Broncos (13-1, 9-0)

Time:  6 PST – 8 CST – 9 EST
Place: ExtraMile Arena, Boise, Idaho
TV: CBS Sports Network

What’s At Stake:

Boise State has won 13 games in a row and is one of the more well-rounded teams in the nation as the Broncos are atop the Mountain West in scoring offense and (81.2 ppg) and field goal percentage (47.4%) and are second in scoring defense (61.0 ppg) and field goal percentage defense (39.2%). The 13-game winning streak is fourth best in the nation and the 9-0 start in the MW is the best conference start in program history.

The Broncos own a 24-21 lead in the series, but the Bulldogs are 4-3 in the last seven games in the series while the Broncos are 8-6 in the last 14 games.

FYI:
Watch the second game of the back-to-back as generally the second game is closer than the first or sometimes, the team losing the first game wins the second game.

Vs. The Spread:

Fresno State: 

  • The Bulldogs are 3-8 ATS in the last 11 games
  • The UNDER has been the play in 4 of Fresno State’s last 5 games
  • The ‘Dogs are 2-13 SU in their last 15 road games in Boise

Boise State:

  • The Broncos are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 6 of Boise State’s last 8 games vs. Mountain West opponents
  • The UNDER has been the play in 5 of the last 6 games between the Broncos and Bulldogs
Teams Spread Money Line Total Points
Fresno State +15 (-105) +870 O 137 (-110)
Boise State -15 (-115) -1500 U 137 (-110)

Last Time Out:

Boise State closed Wednesday night’s game on a 30-5 run as the Broncos ran past Fresno State, 73-51, after trailing for the first 30 minutes of the game. Derek Alston, Jr., led BSU with 21 points as he put the Broncos ahead for good on a three-pointer with 9:08 remaining. The Broncos made 12 of their last 15 field goals, but they still finished shooting only 38.8 percent from the field.

For the Bulldogs to Win:

Fresno State Bulldogs LogoA more aggressive offensive approach behind the talents of Orlando Robinson (17.5 ppg, 9.8 rpg) will be a must if Fresno State is able to salvage a split in the series. Deon Stroud (13.1 ppg, 3.6 rpg)  and Isaiah Hill (10.8 pgg, 3.5 rpg) have been the keys on the perimeter for the Bulldogs, but they still shoot only 30.2 percent from three. The Broncos ramp up the defense against the triple (28.9% -3), so FSU’s opportunities will be limited. The Bulldogs are 269th in the NCAA in turnover percentage as they commit 21.5 per 100 possessions, per kenpom. Boise State’s defense creates steals as it has 100 on the season with Abu Kigab leading with 26.

In The Dawg House:

The offensive glass is where the Bulldogs can make a difference as they average 12.3 rebounds per night as Robinson is the leading offensive rebounder as well with 33.

For the Broncos to Win:

Boise State Broncos LogoDerrick Alston, Jr. (16.8 ppg, 4.1 rpg) has scored 20-plus points seven times this season as he is fifth in the MW in scoring while Portland transfer Marcus Shaver, Jr., (18/43 -3) has joined Max Rice ( 22/52 -3 ) as the leading three-point shooters. The Bulldogs’ defense gives up about 8.9 per game triples, so this is a major challenge as we do not expect the Broncos to shoot as poorly as they did for the first 30 minutes on Wednesday. In shooting 54.9 percent from inside the arc, Boise State is 43rd in the NCAA as Kigab (13.8 ppg, 6.1 rpg) and point guard RayJ Dennis (11.1 ppg, 3.3 rpg) have been tough to keep out of the paint.

From the Stable:
Boise State limited Fresno State to 51 points. It is the eighth time in 14 games this season the Broncos have held their opponent to fewer than 60 points. In Leon Rice’s 11 seasons as head coach, Boise State is 74-8 when holding opponents under 60 points.

Winner: Boise State 75, Fresno State (+15) 65
O/U: Take OVER 137

The Bets
Boise State -15
-115
OVER 137
-110
Kenneth Cross / Author

Kenneth Cross is a new entry to The Sports Geek staff as he has 25 years of experience in print, broadcast, and internet sports journalism. Cross is a lover of all sports, but college basketball is his passion. He estimates that he has seen around 1,500 college basketball games - live and in-person - and hopes that grows this season. If you listen to Radio, you have likely heard him on Sundays covering the Carolina Panthers for some 20 years. Now in Tampa Bay, he works as a national radio correspondent.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.