Fresno State Bulldogs vs. San Diego State Aztecs Pick – NCAAB March 10, 2022

The Fresno State Bulldogs and San Diego State Aztecs clash in the Mountain West Tournament at the Thomas & Mack Center on Thursday night. This is another Las Vegas tournament.

There are three tournaments in Las Vegas, with another in the suburbs of Henderson. The West Coast Conference is in the books, with the most likely scenario playing out and the Gonzaga Bulldogs winning.

Fresno State has played one conference tournament game, while San Diego State will open tourney play after a bye in the first round. The Bulldogs needed overtime to edge out San Jose State with a 69-67 win.

A better effort will be required for Fresno State to get past San Diego State tonight. The Aztecs play too tight defense for a shooting game like that to bother San Diego State. Fresno State is 19-12 and 8-9 in the conference entering Thursday night.

Fresno State has played three straight overtime games going into tonight. That includes a 65-64 loss at San Diego State last Thursday. That wasn’t the best from San Diego State. They are open to doing better.

San Diego State has won four in a row with wins in nine of their previous ten attempts. They finished with a record of 21-7 and 13-4 in the Mountain West.

The Aztecs employ a stingy defense that makes it difficult on opponents to set up offensively. They are one of the best in the NCAA on defense, though is it going to translate in the NCAA Tournament versus better competition?

For now, it’s more important to focus on what is in front of them in the Mountain West Tournament. San Diego State has a chance at winning the tourney if their defense holds, but this is an ultra-competitive conference.

Head below for our free Fresno State vs. San Diego State prediction on March 10, 2022.

Fresno State Bulldogs vs. San Diego State Aztecs Betting Odds and Team Statistics:

The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Fresno State Bulldogs +5.5 (-110) +215 Over 115.5 (-110)
San Diego State Aztecs -5.5 (-110) -255 Under 115.5 (-110)
Team Data Fresno State Bulldogs San Diego State Aztecs
Overall Record 19-12 21-7
ATS Record 17-12-1 15-13-0
Away/Home Record 5-8 15-1
ATS Away/Home 7-5-1 9-7-0
Points Per Game 65.1 66.3
Points Against Per Game 58.4 58.3
Field Goal % 44.2 43.5
Three Point % 33.3 35.6

Fresno State vs. San Diego State Prediction:

Fresno State and San Diego State share a lot of the same attributes. They both want to do the same with their defense.

Ugly the floor up and force teams into mistakes with offense coming second. It isn’t any surprise that these two teams went to overtime last week.

San Diego State plays defense, but Fresno State can match. The Aztecs are the second-best team in the NCAA, with 58.3 points against per game.

They have allowed teams to shoot just 37.9% from the field and continually have made it tough on opponents in the Mountain West. San Diego State got one more stop for a 1-point win in their recent outing versus Fresno.

Fresno State is right behind the Aztecs in terms of defensive efficiency. The Bulldogs have conceded 58.4 points per game for third in the NCAA.

They just barely trail San Diego State in that regard. Fresno State will be looking to do the same that San Diego is attempting to accomplish.

Fresno State Bulldogs vs. San Diego State Aztecs Betting Trends:

Fresno State
  • 7-3-1 ATS in their previous 11 games after failing to cover the spread
  • 2-1 ATS in their previous three games
  • 3-6 ATS in their previous nine games
  • OVER is 5-2 in their previous seven games as an underdog
  • OVER is 4-0 in their previous four games
San Diego State
  • 1-7 ATS in their previous eight games in March
  • 3-7 ATS in their previous ten games on a Thursday
  • 9-1 overall in their previous ten games versus the Mountain West Conference
  • 5-1 ATS in their previous six games versus a team with a winning record
  • UNDER is 7-3 in their previous ten games versus Fresno State

Fresno State and San Diego are equals on offense. They are both the same mid-tier offense that prefers to slow things down and allow their defenses to win games.

The Bulldogs scored 65.1 points per game on 44.2% shooting, while the Aztecs have notched 66.3 points per game on 43.5% shooting this season. Fresno State has been a tick better from the field.

Fresno State also has an edge in the free-throw shooting department. In a game like this, free-throw shooting is mightily important in a defensive battle.

The Bulldogs are shooting 73.8% from the charity stripe going into tonight. Conversely, San Diego State is connecting at a 69.7% clip from the line.

Fresno State has done a nice job cleaning up the defensive boards, as they’re tenth in the NCAA in this respect. San Diego State is only 175th in offensive rebounding.

This looks like a tight game that should come down to the wire again. After covering the 8 points at San Diego State last week, getting 6 points on a neutral court looks like good value.


Fresno State vs. San Diego State Pick
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.

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