Indiana Hoosiers at Northwestern Wildcats – NCAAM February 10

5:30 p.m. ET Indiana (-3½) at Northwestern O/U: 138½

Teams Spread Money Line Total Points
Indiana -3½ (-106) -167 O 138½ (-110)
Northwestern +3½ (-114) +147 U 138½ (-110)

The 10-8 Hoosiers travel to Evanston, Illinois to take on the 6-10 Wildcats on Wednesday night. Indiana is fresh off an upset win over Iowa at home on Sunday. Northwestern lost most recently on Saturday to Purdue, 75-70. These two met back on Dec. 23 in Bloomington, Indiana, where Northwestern prevailed 74-67. Northwestern followed that game by beating Ohio State, which launched them up to No. 18 in the Associated Press top 25 poll and increased expectations for a highly successful season. Since then, those high hopes have come crashing down in the harshest way. The Wildcats have dropped nine games in a row. For Indiana, this game is a must win because they are sitting firmly on the bubble of the NCAA tournament and a loss to a team on a nine-game skid and currently sitting at 13th in the Big Ten standings could be devastating to those chances.

Northwestern Wildcats LogoIndiana is led by Trayce Jackson-Davis, who averages a team-high 19.9 points and 9.2 rebounds per game. Davis has scored double figures in every game this season, including 22 points in the first matchup against the Wildcats. Northwestern is led by forward Miller Kopp averaging 13.2 points per game. Kopp had 13 in the first matchup, as Northwestern placed four players in double figures to lead them to the upset win in the contest they entered as nine-point underdogs.

Indiana Hoosiers LogoThis game looks simple enough at first glance Indiana has had more success this season so they should cover the short spread. But it deserves a closer look. Wildcats coach Chris Collins has had Hoosiers coach Archie Miller’s number since Miller came to Indiana, going 3-3 straight up and 5-1 against the spread. Plus the Wildcats may have lost nine games in a row, but they have shown signs of progress in their last three, losing each by single digits.

Please Note:
The Hoosiers are coming off a three-game homestand, rendering this a prime letdown spot. Take the short home underdog for three reasons: Northwestern’s improved play; Collins’ success against Indiana and Miller, and Indiana being poised for a letdown following a huge win. It won’t hurt that it’s a home game for the Wildcats, either, even though that obviously doesn’t carry the same weight in these pandemic times as it does in normal times. The Hoosiers may very well pull out a close win outright, but Northwestern will almost certainly cover the spread.
The Bets
Northwestern +3½
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Joe Menzer / Author

Joe is an award-winning writer and editor who has covered the NBA, NFL, NASCAR, golf, various collegiate athletics and other sports for newspapers, Turner Sports, Fox Sports and ESPN. He has been on the beat for seven Super Bowls, six Daytona 500s and numerous NBA playoff series and All-Star Games. He once was dispatched to Rome, Italy to spend time with an NBA draft choice who opted to play overseas, after which he produced an award-winning series of stories. He also is passionate about fantasy sports and breaking down games in ways that even novice gamblers can use to make their most intelligent wagering decisions.