Iowa State Cyclones vs. Baylor Bears Pick – NCAAB March 5, 2022

The Iowa State Cyclones and Baylor Bears conclude their Big 12 regular season schedule at the Ferrell Center in Waco.

Iowa State is going into this one at 20-10 with a record of 7-10 in the Big 12. They are coming off a horrific high school-like performance versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys on Wednesday.

In 40 minutes of action, Iowa State somehow managed to score only 36 points. I can’t fault the defense, but 36 points, especially against a so-so defense like Oklahoma State is not acceptable.

When a team only scores 36 points, there’s an effort problem. That’s a new school-low at home since playing in the NCAA.

Iowa State moves on to their season finale where they hope for better to carry some momentum into the Big 12 Tournament. It’s unfortunately not going to be easy for the Cyclones, though.

They have the defending national champs to deal with on the floor tonight. Baylor looks like they could get back to the NCAA Championship.

Despite losing talent from the roster last year, the Bears are still very well a live contender in the NCAA Tournament. They’re going into the final game of the regular season ranked No. 3 in the nation behind Arizona and Gonzaga.

The Bears have a win in four straight and coming off a 68-61 win at Texas on Monday. That was a better win than it appears at first look. They covered easily as a 1.5-point favorite there.

It’s not a simple chore going on the road and beating a decent team like the Longhorns. Baylor has won six of their previous seven attempts. Head below for our free Iowa State vs. Baylor prediction on March 5, 2022.

Iowa State Cyclones vs. Baylor Bears Betting Odds and Team Statistics:

The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Iowa State Cyclones +12 (-110) OFF Over 131.5 (-110)
Baylor Bears -12 (-110) OFF Under 131.5 (-110)
Team Data Iowa State Cyclones Baylor Bears
Overall Record 20-10 25-5
ATS Record 16-14-0 16-12-2
Away/Home Record 4-5 14-2
ATS Away/Home 5-4-0 9-6-1
Points Per Game 67.3 76.9
Points Against Per Game 62.3 63.2
Field Goal % 44.1 46.6
Three Point % 32.8 35.3

Iowa State vs. Baylor Prediction:

Iowa State will have to play exponentially better if they’re pulling off the upset at Baylor on Saturday.

If they are bringing the same effort as what happened versus Oklahoma State, forget about it, the Cyclones are going to score less than 20 points in this one.

Baylor is 34th in the NCAA with 63.2 points against per game. What they do best is push teams away on the perimeter. Their guards are all active and force opponents into mistakes.

As a result, teams are shooting just 29.2% from three-land against the Bears. Baylor is 14th in the NCAA against the three.

In Waco this season, Baylor is allowing 59.4 points per game on a 39.6% FGA. They should make this one really difficult on Iowa State.

The Cyclones will be better than their last game; they can’t be any worse. However, this still isn’t going to be an easy stroll in the park against Baylor.

Iowa State Cyclones vs. Baylor Bears Betting Trends:

Iowa State
  • 3-6 ATS in their previous nine games
  • 1-4 ATS in their previous five games versus a team with a winning percentage better than 60%
  • 4-16 overall in their previous 20 games on the road
  • 0-8 overall in their previous eight games at Baylor
  • 11-5-1 ATS in their previous 17 games as an underdog
  • 4-1-1 ATS in their previous six games as a betting favorite
  • 14-4-1 ATS in their previous 19 games after covering the spread
  • 3-1-1 ATS in their previous five games at home
  • 4-2 ATS in their previous six games at home on a Saturday
  • 6-1 overall in their previous seven games

Iowa State is scoring only 63 points per game on 42% shooting on the road. I don’t see it going well against the Baylor defense.

This one is going to be tough sledding in the regular season finale in Waco. It is the worst possible opponent for Iowa State after a game like that.

The Bears should be able to score in this one. They average 80.9 points per game and a 48.9% field goal percentage at home, but they probably don’t need much with Iowa State building a brick house.

Look for Baylor to put on a good-looking display at home on Saturday evening. Iowa State will score more than 36 points this time, though another anemic shooting day will hold them back. I’m looking at a 76-59 win for Baylor on their home floor.


Iowa State vs. Baylor Pick
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.

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