9:00 p.m. Marquette at Villanova (-11) O/U: 139
|Teams||Spread||Money Line||Total Points|
|Marquette||+11 (-107)||+485||O 139 (-105)|
|Villanova||-11 (-113)||-625||U 139 (-115)|
The 9-10 Golden Eagles head to Villanova to take on the 12-2 Wildcats Wednesday night. Marquette was last in action on Saturday, losing 71-68 at home to Creighton. Villanova suffered its first conference loss of the season last Wednesday at St. John’s, but was able to rebound nicely on Sunday by defeating Georgetown at home, 84-74. These two teams met back on Dec. 23 in Wisconsin, where the Wildcats prevailed 85-68 largely due to an explosive 49-point second half.
The Golden Eagles are led by guard D.J. Carton’s team-high average of 12.7 points per game this season. The Wildcats’ leading scorer is Jeremiah Robinson-Earl with 15.3 points per game. But with Villanova having five players averaging in double figures, the Wildcats can attack you many ways on the offensive end. In the first game it was Collin Gillespie spearheading the attack with 22 points on 6-of-11 shooting from 2-point range. Marquette shot 51 percent from the field in the first matchup, but that wasn’t enough to overcome their mishandling of the basketball.
The biggest reason for the 17-point blowout in Villanova’s favor was the turnover margin. Marquette committed 16 turnovers as opposed to the four turnovers Nova committed.
Marquette may be 6-13 against the spread this season, but they have two top-10 wins this season, beating then-No.4 Wisconsin and then-No.9 Creighton earlier. The Villanova defense has shown weakness in the past three games, allowing 70 points or more in each of them. The first matchup combined for 153 points and it ended up being a blowout. You see where we’re going here. The Over/Under total of 139 would have made more sense three weeks ago. Since then, however, with the Wildcats’ defense trending downward, it is too low. Villanova still boasts one of the most efficient offenses in the country, scoring 77.9 points per game this season. Bet on Marquette’s offense to score enough against Villanova’s suddenly vulnerable defense to send the game over the O/U total of 139.