We got back on track last night with our tenth win in twelve college basketball plays (and the two losses still annoy me as one came on spread-covering late three-pointer after the result of the game was already in hand and the other was a half-point in overtime) as Virginia easily beat the Louisville Cardinals. Rick Pitino’s nemesis looked to be tamed in the first half, but the Virginia defense and Louisville’s perimeter problems reared their ugly head and the offense dried up quickly. Once that happened, the route was on…
There are a few good games on the schedule tonight to choose from, and a weird one to STAY AWAY from. Kentucky is a tempting fade right now – they’ve looked bad the last few weeks. But LSU IS BAD. Like with three or four “a’s” BAAAAD. Yet, the line is a “who knows is walk-ons get to play -25” so I am out, out, out.
Instead, I am heading back to a familiar safe haven, my beloved Terps (kidding – I’ve no affinity for Maryland aside from the joking nod and wink to the fact I have picked them four times this season in official picks).
Today’s NCAA Basketball Pick:
Maryland Terrapins -2.5 at Penn State Nittany Lions
Yes, Penn State has clipped a few big boys at home this season. They impressive wins over Minnesota and Michigan State at home. But they are still 4-7 in Big Ten play with home losses to Northwestern, Indiana and Rutgers – and Maryland is better than all of them, even if Vegas is slow on the uptake. Frankly, I’ve written it before, and I’ll say it again – clearly Vegas sees something DIFFERENT than I do when watching this team play basketball. I think they are far better than the credit allotted, and the four winning wagers support my humble view point. Maryland is a staggering 14-7-1 ATS this season and a perfect 5-0 ATS on the road in their last contests.
Meanwhile, Penn State enters at a pedestrian 12-12 overall, and might be getting a little too much mileage over wins over Minny and Sparty. Michigan State is a bubble team right now, and Minnesota took advantage of a soft non-con to get a little more shine than warranted. Penn State also has losses to Rutgers, George Mason and Albany at home this year.
Penn State has covered four of their last six at home, but is still just 1-4 SU in their last five home games. Tonight’s line is slim enough that I am not as wary of the win/miss cover combo that can be frustrating.
I’m not off Maryland until the lines correct. They’ve been spitting out money all season long, and it hasn’t slowed lately – if anything, it has increased. So give me Melo and his army of talented frosh in a nice road win coming off the Purdue heartbreaker.
Today’s Pick: Maryland Terrapins -2.5