Sometimes I almost feel bad for the betting public. How can they be so wrong, so much of the time? But I never feel too bad for them, though, as I get to fade them daily and take full advantage of their collective ignorance. That was the case again last night when I backed South Dakota State at home against North Dakota State.
The betting line opened up at SD State -3-points. Kenpom told us that the data was saying that the Jackrabbits should have been -5, so -3, was actually a bit of a bargain, to begin with. But just like they always do, the public jumped on the wrong side and hammered ND State, moving the number all the way to even by tipoff.
So, I jumped on the rational side of the argument, trusted the data, and backed South Dakota State at home at even money, and felt like I was stealing. And when the Jackrabbits dominated the game wire to wire, leading by double digits for much of the contest, I knew that once again, the public got me paid.
— JackrabbitBasketball (@GoJacksMBB) January 23, 2020
The win was a huge one for the Jackrabbits as they have now taken over control for first place in the Summit League. For us, it was just another in a long line of winners since conference play kicked off. In 2020, we are a smoking hot 17-5 on college basketball bets, that’s good for 77% winners. We will look to stay hot tonight as we head to the Big 10 conference, for a matchup between the Indiana Hoosiers and the Michigan State Spartans.
- Michigan State Spartans (14-4) at Indiana Hoosiers (14-4)
- Assembly Hall, Bloomington
- 5:30 PM PST
- TV: FS1
The Indiana Hoosiers are looking to stay undefeated at home in Big 10 league play tonight as they host the Michigan State Spartans. The Hoosiers started out their year by beating up on sub-par competition in the non-conference, winning their first seven games of the season. There were some doubts as to just how good this team actually was, but they have quieted those concerns as of late, as they have picked up some huge wins on their resume.
— Indiana Basketball (@IndianaMBB) January 23, 2020
The Spartans entered the year as the nation’s number one team in the preseason but quickly fell from the top of the ranks as they lost three times in their first eight games. But when you look back at the full body of work now, it is mighty impressive. They have a bunch of wins over the top-50, including wins over Seton Hall, Rutgers, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.
Michigan State Spartans
The Spartans came out of the gates slow, but they sure have been good in the last two months. Sparty has won nine out of their last ten games since getting embarrassed by Duke on their home floor on December 3rd. That includes winning six out of seven Big 10 league games. That 6-1 record that has them atop the Big 10 standings, a game ahead of Illinois in the loss column.
While they have played many of the best teams in the league during that stretch of success, in a small quirk in the schedule, they have played all but two of those games at home. At home in league play, the Spartans are 5-0. On the road in league play? They are just 1-1. And ATS in those two games they are 0-2, failing to cover against both Purdue and Northwestern. It will be interesting to see how the Spartans play tonight on the road against a very talented Indiana team.
The Indiana Hoosiers have had a similar start to league play as they are undefeated at home with wins over Nebraska, Ohio State, and Northwestern. On the road? They are just 1-3. The Hoosiers have a rare mix of elite defense and offense, as both units are ranked in the top-60 on kenpom in terms of efficiency.
The Big 10 is my pick for the best league in the country, and winning on your home court is a necessity. And for the most part, that has been the case in the Big 10 as home teams have won nearly 82% of the time in league play this season. If you pull out the five home floor losses from Nebraska and Northwestern, the only two teams in the league with a losing record overall, that number jumps up to nearly 90%.
Who Do I Like?
I have been like a broken record this year, find a Big 10 home dog, back them, and get paid. And in nearly every one of those games, the public has backed the road team, and we have got an even better number than we deserved. That was the case once again in this one, as the line opened up at Indiana +2.5, and is now Indiana +4 as the public has backed the Spartans.
So, I will do what I nearly always do, and look to fade the public and back a home dog in league play. I am not sure if Indiana wins this one outright or if they just keep it close enough to cover the number, but I do feel confident that at the end of the day, we are cashing our ticket. Give me the Indiana Hoosiers and the points tonight from Assembly Hall!