Texas Southern Tigers (0-8) at Oregon Ducks (6-3)
It is a very light schedule for college basketball today. Only 11 total games are on the schedule after a long weekend of NCAA action. This means it is a little bit of slim pickings for betting action. There is one game though that sticks out as showing some very strong value. Today I will be evaluating a non-conference matchup between the Texas Southern Tigers and the Oregon Ducks.
Tipoff is scheduled for 7:00 PM PST from Mathew Knight Arena in Eugene, Oregon. The Ducks are -19-point favorites.
Oregon is coming off a trip to the Final Four last season, where they lost by just one point to the eventual National Champion Carolina Tar Heels. This team lost a lot of talent from last year’s 31-win squad. They lost Dillon Brooks, Tyler Dorsey, and Jordan Bell to the NBA and are looking to rebuild this season.
Somehow the Ducks have managed to not play a single game outside of Oregon so far, this season. They played several home games and then played in the PK80 tournament that was hosted just down the street in Portland.
Unfortunately, the Ducks haven’t been able to capitalize on this favorable stretch of schedule as they are just 6-3 on the season. After having what was essentially the home court advantage in the PK80 tournament, head coach Dana Altman had to be disappointed in going 1-2 in that prestigious event.
The Ducks won’t play a true road game until they travel to play Fresno State on December 16th. Then its back home for three more games.
The Ducks must stack up some wins now as the second half of the season is going to be spent on the road, making up for all these early home games.
The Ducks three losses are all somewhat forgivable, as they lost to Oklahoma, Boise State, and UCONN. All teams that should hear their name called on Selection Sunday. But they can ill afford to drop a cupcake game like this one to a zero-win Texas Southern team.
Texas Southern has had a brutal schedule this season. They have played Gonzaga, Washington State, Ohio State, Syracuse, Kansas, and Clemson. That is a rough stretch of games for any team, let alone a small conference team like the Tigers.
Many of those games have gotten out of hand for the Tigers as they have been on the receiving end of quite a few blowout losses. These poor guys are the exact opposite of the Ducks, they haven’t played a single home game yet this season.
They won’t actually play a true home game until Jan 1st and have road games against Baylor and TCU coming up after this game. The Tigers could very easily find themselves hitting the New Year winless. You just have to wonder how long these road warriors can keep up with all these big conference teams.
This is a mismatch with a capital M. Oregon is a shell of its former self, but they are comfortable at home and know they can’t drop a game at home like this one. They are just too well coached to ever let a game like this slip by. It’s sad to say but these types of games are on the schedule because they want a soft game during finals week. The Tigers are being brought in to lose.
Normally I won’t touch a game with such a high number, but this game feels like free money. The Ducks are ranked in the top thirty in the nation in scoring at over 86 points a game, so I am not worried that the 19 points are going to be too tough to cover.
It is a lot of wood to lay, but with a team playing its 9th straight game on the road, and that has lost each and every one of them, it feels like a spot where they might just lay down.
I expect a final score in the range of 102-77 with the Ducks cruising to an easy victory. Give me the Oregon Ducks at home in a laugher.