San Diego State Aztecs vs. Nevada Wolf Pack Pick – NCAAB March 5, 2022

The San Diego State Aztecs and Nevada Wolf Pack conclude the regular season with a Mountain West matchup in Reno.

San Diego State is looking to finish strong and go into the Mountain West Tournament with momentum. The Aztecs are one of the contenders in a crowded field in the Mountain West.

San Diego State is 20-7 with a record of 12-4 in the conference. They are currently the third-best team in the Mountain West behind Boise State and Colorado State.

Like most conference tournaments this year, it’s going to be wide-open, with anyone able to win. There are going to be upsets, this is March Madness, so expect an unexpected winner once or twice.

San Diego State is coming off a 65-64 win in overtime over the Fresno State Buldogs. That was a close call, but the Aztecs got it done with a gutsy victory. The win was their eighth in the last nine attempts for San Diego State.

When defense is required in the conference tournament, San Diego State will be one of the best. Their defensive pressure is what makes them so dangerous.

They could afford a better offense, but when they keep holding teams to less than 60 points, that’s enough in the Mountain West. Can San Diego State do this against top teams in the NCAA Tournament?

The Aztecs are going to meet their match where they need to get hot from the field, so that’s iffy. They may not need it versus Nevada tonight. The Wolf Pack are 12-16 and 6-11 in the Mountain West.

Nevada is on a three-game losing streak following a 73-67 loss at Boise State on Tuesday. This was after a 74-61 loss at Wyoming last Saturday. They have home court, but need to crack the San Diego State defense.

Head below for our free San Diego State vs. Nevada prediction on March 5, 2022.

San Diego State Aztecs vs. Nevada Wolf Pack Betting Odds and Team Statistics:

The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

Teams Spread Moneyline Total
San Diego State Aztecs -4 (-110) -170 Over 133 (-110)
Nevada Wolf Pack +4 (-110) +150 Under 133 (-110)
Team Data San Diego State Aztecs Nevada Wolf Pack
Overall Record 20-7 12-16
ATS Record 15-12-0 9-18-0
Away/Home Record 4-5 7-6
ATS Away/Home 5-4-0 2-10-0
Points Per Game 65.8 72.3
Points Against Per Game 57.5 73.6
Field Goal % 43.2 45.0
Three Point % 35.6 33.1

San Diego State vs. Nevada Prediction:

San Diego State will put pressure on Nevada and not stop in this one. They are the second-best defense in the NCAA, statistically, with an average of 57.5 points against per game.

The Aztecs have held teams to a 37.4 for fourth in the country. This isn’t exclusive to home games in San Diego, either. San Diego State is allowing 61.8 points per game and a 39.4% on the road.

In their previous five outings, San Diego State has allowed 56.8 points a game and a 36.4% FGA. They are turning things up at the right time, as this is what can win them a Mountain West Championship.

As a betting favorite this season, San Diego has allowed 56.6 points and a 37.5%. They’ve taken advantage of spotty offenses, and while Nevada can be good, nothing that the Aztecs can’t counter.

Nevada is 147th in the NCAA with 72.3 points per game and a 45% field goal percentage. They struggle from deep, as the Wolf Pack shoots just 33.1% for 218th.

San Diego State Aztecs vs. Nevada Wolf Pack Betting Trends:

San Diego State
  • 5-1 ATS in their previous six games
  • 22-8 ATS in their previous 30 games on the road
  • 4-1 ATS in their previous five games versus a team with a winning record at home
  • The road team is 7-0 ATS in their previous seven games
  • 8-1 overall in their previous nine games
  • 0-4 ATS in their previous four games at home
  • 5-14 ATS in their previous 19 games
  • 3-7 ATS in their previous ten games as an underdog
  • 4-13 ATS in their previous 17 games versus a team with a winning record
  • 0-5 ATS in their previous five games on a Saturday

San Diego State doesn’t have the best offense, but the Wolf Pack defense is going to present openings. Nevada is 297th with 73.6 points against per game and a 43.8% FGA.

They have given up a 35.5% three-point percentage, which has been their worst line of defense. This is what San Diego State does best offensive, as they’re shooting 35.6% for 82nd in the NCAA.

It isn’t that San Diego State’s offense is particularly bad; it’s just their style of play is not fast, and they like to put a stranglehold on teams with their defense. They can shoot the three-ball with consistency.

Even at home, Nevada is allowing more than 70 points per game at home. They won’t cause nearly as much pressure as San Diego State can tonight. This looks like a good spot to lay the points in the nightcap in Reno.


San Diego State vs. Nevada Pick
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.

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