New Mexico Lobos vs. Fresno State Bulldogs Pick – NCAAM March 10, 2021

The New Mexico Lobos and Fresno State Bulldogs are scheduled to do battle at the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas at 4:00 p.m. PST. New Mexico enters the Mountain West Tournament as the No. 11 seed and faces a huge uphill in this tournament. It would be the most unlikely scenario if New Mexico wins the conference.

They would need to win as a sizable underdog in pretty well every game for that to occur. New Mexico is more than a touchdown underdog against Fresno State to open the Mountain West Tournament. If this were a football game, it’s unlikely that New Mexico would win that, but we’ll see what happens on the hardwood.

New Mexico goes into Vegas with a record of 6-15 and 2-15 in the conference. The Lobos are coming off a 87-73 loss against the Colorado State Rams a week ago on March 7. Colorado State put the game on cruise control in the second-half after taking a 47-31 lead into the break. I’m sure they could have drilled New Mexico more if they wanted.

In the battle of the worst teams in the Mountain West, New Mexico took a split against Air Force on February 22, 73-65 win, and February 24, 62-55 loss. I’m not sure who is worse, but they didn’t settle much in those two games. New Mexico has just one win in their previous eight games, and that was against 5-19 Air Force.

Fresno State has been fighting hard down the stretch, and should be a tough opponent for even the top seeds if they get through deep into the Mountain West Tournament. I’m not saying they are going to win, but certainly could give a quality team a workout. The Bulldogs completed the regular season with a record of 11-11 and 9-11 in the conference. They covered four straight games to end the regular season slate. Head below for our free New Mexico vs. Fresno State pick on March 10, 2021.

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New Mexico Lobos vs. Fresno State Bulldogs Mountain West Tournament Betting Odds:


  • New Mexico +8.5 (-110)
  • Fresno St. -8.5 (-110)

  • New Mexico +340
  • Fresno St. -450

  • Over 125.5 (-110)
  • Under 125.5 (-110)


New Mexico vs. Fresno State Prediction:

New Mexico were two-time losers against Fresno State this season. In the first meeting, they battled hard and forced overtime, but came up short in a 64-62 loss. Fresno State played much better in the next contest, as they pulled away for a double-digit win by a score of 65-55. The biggest problem for New Mexico is that Fresno State has been in better form since that sequence in late January.

This likely isn’t going to be the same Bulldogs team, and the Lobos still lost by ten against Fresno State on January 30. Fresno State has covered their last four games, including a win over 18-7 Boise State by a score of 67-64 two games ago on March 2. To close out the season, they made it a game against the No. 2 seed, Utah State, by a score of 57-51. Fresno were 9-point underdogs in that contest. They didn’t win, but a productive effort to go into the Mountain West Tournament.

The Lobos struggled to score consistently this season. They recorded 64.7 points per game for 315th in the NCAA. In their previous five outings, the Lobos did a touch better with 68.4 points per game. However, the defense was not in good form, and allowed an average of 75.2 points per game. That’s not going to win games. If the offense needs to be at its peak on Wednesday for the Lobos. It’s going to be difficult against a Fresno State team that stresses defense, though.

New Mexico is going into this one with a banged up injury report. From the top to the bottom, the Lobos are dealing with issues. There are six players listed on the injury report for New Mexico, including four forwards and two guards. I’m expecting Fresno State to grind away on New Mexico in this contest with their defense. Points are going to come at a premium for the Lobos. A 67-56 win for Fresno State looks about right in this spot.


Our Bet
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.