North Carolina Tar Heels at Florida State Seminoles – NCAAM January 16

North Carolina (8-4, 3-2) at Florida State (6-2, 2-1)

Time: 9 am PST – 10 am CST – 12 Noon EST

Place: Donald L. Tucker Center, Tallahassee, Fla.

TV: ESPN

Seminoles-Heels Rivalry:

Florida State is looking for it’s 20th consecutive home win after the Seminoles went 10-0 last season in the Tucker Center to wrap up the ACC regular season championship. FSU has won 19 straight ACC home games. North Carolina is 17-7 in Tallahassee and as won eight out of the last 10 in the series.

Vs the Spread:

North Carolina:

  • The Tar Heels post a 2-6 mark ATS in their last 8 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 10 of UNC’s last 13 contests
  • Carolina is 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games

Florida State:

  • OVER has been the play as 10 of the last 15 Seminoles-Tar Heels matchups have eclipsed number
  • The ‘Noles are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five home games against the Tar Heels
  • FSU is 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs. ACC opposition
Teams Spread Money Line Total Points
North Carolina +4 (-110) O 145 (-110)
Florida State -4 (-110) U 145 (-110)

Last Time Out:

North Carolina shot only 39.7 percent from the floor but still was able to topple Syracuse, 81-75, on Wednesday evening. This marked the first time in Tar Heels history that they were able to win three straight games while shooting below 40 percent. The key was scoring 24 points of a season-high 24 offensive rebounds. Garrison Brooks (16/10) and Armando Bacot (15/12) led the Carolina effort with a pair of double-doubles.

The Seminoles shot a massive 70.7 percent from the floor (41-of-58) and made 12-of-18 threes as they humbled NC State, 105-73, in Florida State’s first game of 2021 after three postponements due to covid protocols. Rayquan Evans had a career-high 24 points and M.J. Walker finished with 19 as the ‘Noles assisted 24 of the 41 makes.

Tar Heels’ Clipboard:

North Carolina Tar Heels LogoNorth Carolina struggles offensively as the Heels shoot only 41.7 percent from the floor and 29.3 percent from three, but Roy Williams’ teams always hit the offensive glass as they have 60 offensive boards combined in each of their last three wins and have scored 54 points off those.  RaiQuan Gray (5.6 rpg) and Balsa Koprivicia (5.3 rpg) are the Seminoles’ top two rebounders who will battle on the glass with Bacot, Brooks and Sharpe, who all average around eight boards a piece.

The Heels need to accentuate their running game even more so they do not get in the half-court and have trouble executing. Freshman guard Caleb Love shoots only 27 percent from the field and RJ Davis is at 32.7. The length of the Seminoles defense could be problematic.

Seminoles’ Clipboard:

Florida State Seminoles LogoFlorida State is a much more consistent offensive team as coach Leonard Hamilton’s group shoots 46.6 percent from three and they blister the nets from three at a 37.2 percent clip. MJ Walker (41.5% – 3)and Anthony Polite (53.6% – 3)  are the two best three point shooters and are a tough matchup on the perimeter because of their size. Five-star freshman Scottie Barnes (11.1 ppg, 49.3 FG%) will be a tough matchup for Carolina with his inside-outside skills as he is a solid passer with 33 assists against only 16 turnovers in 24.7 minutes per game. He upped his stats in ACC play in averaging 13.7 points and 4.3 rebounds in those first three ACC games.

Florida State should be able to get after UNC on the perimeter as the Tar Heels have turned the ball over at a higher rate that normal (15.5 per game) this season. Barnes and Gray have 12 steals each and could potentially ignite the fast break in the Seminoles’ favor.

Winner: Florida State (-4) 81, North Carolina 71
O/U: Take OVER 145

The Bets
Florida State -4
-110
OVER 145
-110
Kenneth Cross / Author

Kenneth Cross is a new entry to The Sports Geek staff as he has 25 years of experience in print, broadcast, and internet sports journalism. Cross is a lover of all sports, but college basketball is his passion. He estimates that he has seen around 1,500 college basketball games - live and in-person - and hopes that grows this season. If you listen to Radio, you have likely heard him on Sundays covering the Carolina Panthers for some 20 years. Now in Tampa Bay, he works as a national radio correspondent.