North Dakota State Bison at South Dakota Coyotes NCAAM Pick – February 19, 2020

I said yesterday that the Dayton Flyers were just on another level this year. They were undefeated in A-10 play, and I felt that no team in the league could match their talent level. So, while I absolutely hate to lay points on the road in league play, I felt that if any team can cover a number on the road, it would be this Dayton team. So, I backed them laying -2.5-points at VCU, against the Rams.

The game was very competitive as expected, but the Flyers cover was never really in doubt as they had the two and a half points covered for virtually the entire second half. The win all but locks up the A-10 regular-season title for Dayton as they have a full two-game lead over Rhode Island with just five games left to play on the schedule. The Flyers are looking to run the table in the league and nab a top-three seed in the NCAA tournament on Selection Sunday.

For VCU, the Rams are in bad shape in terms of an at-large bid, as they have been in free fall the last couple of weeks. VCU has now lost four out of their last five games, including their last two home games. With Richmond, Rhode Island, and Dayton all looking like tournament teams, the Rams seem to be the team that is going to get left out, as the A-10 just isn’t a four bid league this year. For today’s daily betting pick, we will head to the Summit League, where the Coyotes of South Dakota host the North Dakota State Bison.

Today’s Game

  • North Dakota State Bison (19-7) at South Dakota Coyotes (19-9)
  • Coyote Sports Center, Vermillion
  • 5:00 PM PST
  • TV: N/A

The Summit League regular-season title hangs in the balance tonight as the Coyotes of South Dakota host the Bison of North Dakota State. While the Coyotes would need a big finish to catch the Bison and the Jackrabbits of South Dakota State for first place, as they are two games back with just three games to play, it just so happens that the Coyotes play both of those teams this week. If South Dakota can win tonight on their home floor, the game Sunday against SD State would be for at least a share of the regular season Summit League title.

For North Dakota State, the Bison are hoping to upset the Coyotes tonight and keep their hold on first place. The Bison are currently tied atop the standings with South Dakota State, and they host the Jackrabbits on February 27th. A win tonight gives them a very reasonable shot at taking home the title outright, rather than a potential three-way tie if they lose. There is a lot on the line tonight in Vermillion!

Spread:

  • North Dakota State +1.5 (-110)
  • South Dakota -1.5 (-110)
Money line:

  • North Dakota State +105
  • South Dakota -125
Total Points:

  • Over 150 (-110)
  • Under 150 (-110)

North Dakota State Bison

The Bison have caught fire at the right time, as they have reeled off six consecutive victories. At home in league play, they are 7-0. But on the road, they have had their fair share of struggles, both in league play and in the non-conference. They have padded their resume with an 11-1 home court record. But on the road, they are just 7-5. That includes two losses in league play in true road games.

If the Bison want any shot at an outright Summit League championship this season, they are going to have to find a way to win on the road tonight in hostile territory. When you look at their seven road wins this year, none of them came to teams inside the top-200, and six of them came against teams outside of the top-250. If they pull off the upset, it will be their biggest road win of the year.

South Dakota Coyotes

Similar to the Bison, the Coyotes are great at home and shaky on the road. And to be honest, that tends to be the case with most of the teams from small leagues like the Summit. At home in league play, the Coyotes are 7-0, and that includes wins over South Dakota State, North Dakota, and Oral Roberts. All four of their league losses have come on the road.

The Coyotes feature one of the most balanced scoring attacks in the country as they are one of only two teams in the nation that have all five starters averaging double digits scoring per game. That has led the Coyotes to have a top-50 offense in terms of efficiency, and at over eighty points a game, they are 15th in the nation in points per game this season. The Coyotes are top-10 in the country in both field goal and three-point shooting percentage.

Who Do I Like?

I love me some Summit League basketball. These guys aren’t playing for the fame or the glory, or for a shot at the NBA, these guys are playing for the love of the game. And in a league where there is very little information out there about these teams and players, if you are sharp and do your homework, you can be very profitable betting small conference college basketball.

When these teams first matched up in North Dakota, the game was as close as it could be, as these teams were tied with just one second left on the clock in regulation. The Bison were able to steal the home victory when Tyson Ward made the game-winner as time expired. The Coyotes led by as many as twelve points but failed to close out the game.

The Bet

This is a strange spot. I feel very confident that South Dakota is going to be able to win this game tonight at home. They dominated much of the first game before letting the Bison close out the game on a 25-6 run. And I think they will get their revenge tonight at home. But the cover is going to be a tight one.

Normally laying a point and a half on a team you think is going to win is a reasonable proposition. And, I will lay the point and a half here tonight as well, but I would be shocked to see this game finish with more than a couple point margin of victory. So, while a point and a half isn’t a big burden to bear, we are going to sweat this one to the very end. Give me the South Dakota Coyotes tonight at home, laying a point and a half, in what should be a thriller!

The Bet: South Dakota Coyotes -1.5

My Pick
South Dakota Coyotes -1.5
Jason Gray / Author

Jason is a true Las Vegas insider as he has called the sports betting capital of the world his home for sixteen years. Jason started out his career in gaming by running the biggest poker tournaments in the world and managing some of the biggest sportsbooks on the strip. Jason has transitioned out of casino operations and has been covering sports betting for the sports geek for just over two years. His main focus is on baseball, college basketball, and the NFL