Oregon State Beavers at Arizona State Sun Devils NCAAM Pick – February 22, 2020

With 132 games on the schedule, there are lots of games for you to enjoy today, including several ranked matchups. The headliner is Kansas at Baylor in a game that will likely decide the Big 12 regular-season championship. The winner of that game will be a lock for the number one overall seed in the NCAA tournament.

We also have ranked matchups between Gonzaga and BYU and Oregon and Arizona. Other games with major NCAA tournament implications are games between Tennessee at Auburn, Marquette at Providence, Duquesne at Dayton, Houston at Memphis, Villanova at Xavier, Florida at Kentucky, and Arizona State against Oregon State. For our daily betting pick, we will head out west, where the Arizona State Sun Devils host the Oregon State Beavers.

Today’s Game

  • Oregon State Beavers (15-11) at Arizona State Sun Devils (18-8)
  • 5:00 PM PST
  • Desert Financial, Tempe
  • TV: ESPNU

The Arizona State Sun Devils will look to stay hot tonight as they host the struggling Beavers of Oregon State. The Sun Devils have emerged as a late-season threat to win the Pac-12 regular-season title. The Sun Devils have won eight out of their last nine games and are now in a three-way tie in the loss column with Colorado and Arizona for first place in the Pac-12. Arizona State is coming off of a huge win over Oregon in their last game and are looking for the sweep over the state of Oregon tonight against Oregon State.

For Oregon State, the Beavers just haven’t been able to stay consistent enough this season to truly be considered an at-large threat. After coming into the season with high hopes of competing at the top of the league, the Beavers are just 5-9 in conference play. After starting out the season 9-1, the Beavers have lost ten out of their last sixteen games as the wheels have completely fallen off.

Spread:

  • Oregon State +5 (-110)
  • Arizona State -5 (-110)
Money line:

  • Oregon State +180
  • Arizona State -210
Total Points:

  • Over 144 (-110)
  • Under 144 (-110)

Arizona State Sun Devils

I find the words of LL Cool J are best used when describing this Arizona State team this season, don’t call it a comeback, I been here for years! After seeing head coach Bobby Hurley take the Sun Devils all the way to the NCAA tournament the last two years, it was surprising to see so many people shocked when the Sun Devils caught fire in the second half of the season this year.

This is an emerging program, and I think this team has second weekend potential in the NCAA tournament. We all know the Pac-12 is down this year, and when you look at how the Sun Devils faired in the non-conference, you had to know they were going to have success in the weak league. They have top-100 wins in the non-conference over St. John’s, San Francisco, and Georgia. And their three losses? Those came against Virginia, St. Mary’s, and Creighton, three teams that are locks to go dancing in March. This team has been strong all season long, and if you failed to take notice, that is on you.

Oregon State Beavers

I have been very hard on this Oregon State team, but only because they had so much potential coming into this season. They should be much better than they are right now. The Beavers are loaded with upperclassmen leadership, including superstar Tres Tinkle. Head coach Wayne Tinkle has made just one NCAA tournament trip since taking over the team in 2014, and unless he can make a magical run to the tournament this season, I think he should get fired.

This team just has way too much talent to be this bad. The Beavers have four bad losses to teams outside of the top-100, including losses to Cal, Washington State, Utah, and Texas A&M. They did manage a couple of road wins in league play over Colorado and Stanford, but overall on the road, they are just 3-6. In their last game, just two days ago, they got obliterated by Arizona by twenty-six points.

Who Do I Like

This is Arizona State’s game to lose. The Sun Devils are red-hot, and the win over Oregon in their last game made a statement that this team isn’t just here to take part, they are here to take over. When these two teams matched up in Corvallis, the Sun Devils were in the midst of a stretch of action that saw them lose six out of eight games, and they still won on the road by six points.

So, when I saw this line open up at just Arizona State -6, I felt there was significant value backing the home team. Kenpom has the Sun Devils winning by seven points, so my gut feeling of taking Arizona State was confirmed by the analytics as well.

The Bet

I love to hate on the public in my articles. They are just so, wrong, so, all of the time. And they are on the wrong side of this one as well. I already mentioned that the opening line was one that showed value on the home team, but the public decided they wanted to back this awful Oregon State team on the road anyway.

The early action has all been on Oregon State, and we picked up a full point of extra value, as the number has now dropped to Arizona State -5. I liked the Sun Devils at -6, I now love them at just -5. So, I will fire hard on Arizona State, and high five the public for hooking me up with the extra value.

And to be honest, I am not even sure this game is going to be all that competitive. We already talked about Oregon State struggling on the road, and outside of a couple of very fluky wins, they haven’t even been competitive in many of their road losses. They lost to Arizona by twenty-six, Washington State by thirteen, Utah by twelve, and Washington by eight. The Sun Devils are going to dominate tonight, and I could see them easily winning by double-digits. Give me the Arizona State Sun Devils, laying -5-points at home tonight in Tempe!

The Bet: Arizona State Sun Devils -5

My Pick
Arizona State Sun Devils -5
Jason Gray / Author

Jason is a true Las Vegas insider as he has called the sports betting capital of the world his home for sixteen years. Jason started out his career in gaming by running the biggest poker tournaments in the world and managing some of the biggest sportsbooks on the strip. Jason has transitioned out of casino operations and has been covering sports betting for the sports geek for just over two years. His main focus is on baseball, college basketball, and the NFL