Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Purdue Boilermakers Pick – NCAAB March 11, 2022

Penn State and Purdue clash in an unlikely matchup after the Nittany Lions pulled off an upset Ohio State yesterday. Penn State got it done with a 71-68 win.

The Buckeyes were on the heels of a loss against the Michigan Wolverines, so that might have disrupted their focus. In any case, Ohio State has been inconsistent throughout the season, and their defense has left the door open too often.

Ohio State is going to the NCAA Tournament, and the time off after blowing that one is probably for the better. At the break, Penn State was down 33-24 and crawled back into the game.

However, Penn State cannot depend on Purdue scoring only 33 points at halftime in the next round. If the Nittany Lions don’t start faster, there will be no room for another upset tonight.

They need to come out and hit much earlier, or the Boilermakers will pull too far ahead. Penn State is just 14-16 and 7-13 in the Big Ten going into tonight. Upset Purdue tonight, and they take down one of the best in the conference.

Purdue is setting itself up to go on a long run in the NCAA Tournament. The Boilermakers looked bored to finish off the regular season, though I’m sure that the Big Ten Tournament has their attention now.

They are going into this evening with a record of 25-6 and 14-6 in the conference. Illinois and Wisconsin finished ahead of Purdue in the Big Ten standings, while Penn State was third-last.

Head below for our free Penn State vs. Purdue prediction on March 11, 2022.

Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Purdue Boilermakers Betting Odds and Team Statistics:

The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Penn State Nittany Lions +10.5 (-110) +430 Over 134 (-110)
Villanova Wildcats -10.5 (-110) -550 Under 134 (-110)
Team Data Penn State Nittany Lions Villanova Wildcats
Overall Record 14-16 25-6
ATS Record 18-12-0 13-16-2
Points Per Game 64.7 80.7
Points Against Per Game 68.8 65.3
Field Goal % 43.2 49.7
Three Point % 34.3 39.7

Penn State vs. Purdue Prediction:

Penn State upset Ohio State in the first round of the tournament, but they’re going to be asked to do more versus Purdue.

The Boilermakers have been counting down the days until the Big Ten Tournament for a while now. Expect Purdue to come out hot in this one.

The Nittany Lions have regularly been off the mark offensively this season. They are too dependent on Jalen Pickett, who has to play well for Penn State or it’s tough for them to keep up.

Overall, Penn State is 319th in the NCAA with 64.7 points per game on 43.2% shooting. Penn State scored only 62.8 points per game in their previous five attempts with a 42.1% field goal percentage.

The offense was efficient enough versus Ohio State, but more will be required to keep up with the Boilermakers. I don’t have the most confidence in the Nittany Lions’ defense repelling Purdue’s dangerous offense well enough.

Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Purdue Boilermakers Betting Trends:

Penn State
  • 3-10 overall in their previous 13 games as an underdog
  • 1-12 overall in their previous 13 games versus Purdue
  • 5-1 ATS in their previous six games versus the Big Ten
  • 4-1 ATS in their previous five games as an underdog
  • UNDER is 7-2 in their previous nine games
  • 8-3 ATS in their previous 11 games as a betting favorite
  • 5-2 ATS in their previous seven games versus a team with a losing record
  • 10-3 overall in thier previous 13 games
  • 12-1 overall in their previous 13 games versus Penn State
  • UNDER is 7-2 in their previous nine games

Purdue is one of the best in the country at finding the bottom of the net. The Boilermakers are seventh in the NCAA, with 80.7 points scored per game.

They are also in the top-3 with a 49.7% field goal percentage. Stopping the Boilermakers on the perimeter has to be important.

Purdue is the third-best team in the NCAA at shooting the three, with a three-point percentage of 39.7% going into the Big Ten Tournament.

Penn State plays defense, but not well from downtown. They are giving up a respectable 65.3 points per game, but 285th in the NCAA with a 35.3% three-point percentage against.

The Nittany Lions need points in this one, but the Purdue defense that has been fine should hold. Purdue gave up 68.8 points per game with a 42.8% FGA this season.

Look for Penn State to shoot themselves out of this one. Going cold against Ohio State worked out fine, but doing it again won’t be favorable versus Purdue.

This should be a close game in the first half before Purdue takes control and pulls away. I’m with Purdue in an 83-67 final to cover.


Penn State vs. Purdue Pick
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.

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