Texas Tech Red Raiders at TCU Horned Frogs – NCAAM March 2

TCU (12-10, 5-8) at Texas Tech (15-8, 7-7)

  • Time: 4PM PST | 6PM CST | 7PM EST
  • Location: United Supermarkets Arena, Lubbock, TX
  • TV: ESPN+

Opening Tip

TCU is 3-3 over it’s last six games albeit two of those wins are against Iowa State, who is sitting at the bottom of the Big 12. The Horned Frogs are slowly improving and rounding into form as they have become much more competitive since a 102-98 overtime loss to then-No. 12 Missouri on Jan. 30.

Texas Tech ended a three-game losing streak over the weekend as the Red Raiders defeated Texas, 68-59, in Lubbock. Texas Tech has had trouble finding consistency as the three-game losing streak followed a three-game winning streak which saw wins over LSU and Oklahoma.

The Red Raiders lead the series, 84-52, including 47-15 in Lubbock. Coach Chris Beard is 6-2 vs. the Horned Frogs as Texas Tech has won five out of the last six in the series.

Vs. The Spread

TCU:

  • The Horned Frogs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5
  • TCU is 1-6-1 ATS in it’s last 8 vs. the Red Raiders
  • The OVER has been the play in the last 5 games TCU-Texas Tech games in Lubbock

Texas Tech:

  • The Red Raiders are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games
  • Texas Tech is 1-8 ATS in it’s last 9 home games
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Texas Tech’s last 6 games against the Horned Frogs

Last Time Out

RJ Nembhard had 11 of his 19 points in the last seven minutes as TCU held off Iowa State, 76-72, on Saturday. Mike Miles also had 19 points for the Horned Frogs, who held off a Cyclones rally after Iowa State made 11 of it’s first 14 shots to start the second half.

Mac McClung led five Red Raiders in double figures with 16 points as Texas Tech defeated Texas, 68-59, on Saturday. McClung was one of six players to score in a 19-6 run to start the second half as Texas Tech built a 52-39 lead with 11:29 to go. Texas shot only 34.9 percent from the field and was just 7-of-22 from three.

Teams Spread Money Line Total Points
TCU +12.5 (-107) +640 O 132 (-105)
Texas Tech -12.5 (-113) -900 U 132 (-115)

Advantage, TCU

TCU Horned Frogs LogoThe one-two punch of RJ Nembhard (16.9 ppg, 4.5 rpg) and Mike Miles (14.3 ppg, 3.6 rpfg)has become a consistent duo in the Big 12 as they are where you start on the TCU scouting report. Miles has quietly put together an outstanding season in his freshman campaign and has gotten progressively better as he has averaged 15.9 points over his last six games. Nembhard is a tough matchup at small forward because of his athleticism as he gets to the basket as well. Since the duo checks in as TCU’s top three-point producers, they will be an interesting matchup for the Red Raiders’ three-point defense which has allowed only 17 makes in 64 attempts in the last three games.

Key Horned Frogs Stat:

The Big 12 has it’s usual gauntlet of teams and TCU proves how this schedule can make a good team can have less of a solid look. All of TCU’s losses except for three have come against teams with a NET ranking of 33 or better. The Horned Frogs are a 11-2 in non-Quad 1 games. This is the 319th most experienced team in the nation with 1.14 years experience, so this season looks like a springboard for the next few years under a quality coach in Jamie Dixon.

X-Factor:

Kevin Samuel (9.2 ppg, 8.4 rpg) is a solid inside player as his 6-11, 255-pound frame makes him tough in the paint on both end. He had averaged 9.5 points per game over his last six games with double digits in four of those. As the Horned Frogs’ leading rebounder and as a post who shoots 62 percent from the field, his matchup with 6-7, 245-pound Marcus Santos-Silva will bear watching.

Advantage, Texas Tech

Texas Tech Red Raiders LogoCoach Chris Beard has taken the Red Raiders program to the next level and as they have had slides on inconsistency, they haven’t been able to get the consistency on offense, stabilize turnovers, and defend as they have in the past. As we stated earlier, the defense came into play in a major way against Texas and the Red Raiders placed five players in double figures. The turnover factor could be a major player in the game as the Horned Frogs have averaged scoring 12.3 points per game off of turnovers in their last four outings and they have combined to shoot 46.5 percent from the floor in the last two games.

Key Red Raiders Stat:

Mac McClung (16.8 ppg) continues his rise as he will be in Big 12 Player of the Year conversations as he leads the Red Raiders in scoring. You have to defend McClung off the dribble first because he had gotten to the line 118 times although he leads the Red Raiders in triples with 43.

X-Factor:

The Red Raiders get 51.7 percent of their point in the mid-range and in the paint. Couple that with the fact that TCU gives up 55.3 percent of it’s points on defense from inside the arc. Terrence Shannon, Jr.’s athleticism inside will be an interesting matchup for TCU. Terren Frank or Nembhard will be challenged from Shannon, who now comes off the bench and figures at small forward and power forward.

Winner: Texas Tech 72, TCU (+12.5) 65

The Bets
TCU Horned Frogs +12.5
-107
Texas Tech Red Raiders
-900
OVER 132
-105
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Kenneth Cross / Author

Kenneth Cross is a new entry to The Sports Geek staff as he has 25 years of experience in print, broadcast, and internet sports journalism. Cross is a lover of all sports, but college basketball is his passion. He estimates that he has seen around 1,500 college basketball games - live and in-person - and hopes that grows this season. If you listen to Radio, you have likely heard him on Sundays covering the Carolina Panthers for some 20 years. Now in Tampa Bay, he works as a national radio correspondent.