VCU Rams at Davidson Wildcats NCAAM Pick – March 6, 2020

I guess when you have been winning games at such a high rate like we have been over the last couple of weeks, with nearly 80% winners, you have to give a game back once in a while. And that happened yesterday when we backed the UNLV Runnin’ Rebels in the Mountain West Conference tournament against the Boise State Broncos.

While the game was part of the MWC tournament, it was being played on UNLV’s home floor at the Thomas and Mack Center in Vegas, where they hosted the Broncos two weeks ago and beat them by double-digits. So, when I saw the opportunity to back the Rebels, laying just one point, I felt like it showed significant value.

But unfortunately for us, the Rebels lost the game and snapped their five-game winning streak. It was a bit of a surprising end to their season, as they had caught fire late in the year. For Boise State, they win and advance to keep their season alive and move on to the semifinals where the top-seeded Aztecs of San Diego State await them. For today’s daily betting pick, we will head to the A-10, where the Davidson Wildcats host the VCU Rams.

Today’s Game

  • VCU Rams (18-12) at Davidson Wildcats (15-14)
  • 6:00 PM PST
  • Belk Arena, Davidson
  • TV: ESPN 2

The Davidson Wildcats play the final game of their regular season tonight as they host the Rams of VCU. The Wildcats had won four out of their previous five games before a two-game road trip to Dayton and Richmond, that saw them lose both games. The Wildcats will need to win the A-10 tournament to make the NCAA tournament this year. However, if recent history tells us anything about the A-10 tournament, it is going to be wild, and anybody can win.

For VCU, the Rams are in desperate need of a road win, as they have fallen off the bubble and will need a big finish to get back into the conversation for an at-large bid into the Big Dance. The Rams have lost seven of their last nine games and have been awful on the road this season. VCU has lost their last four road games, including bad losses to out of contention teams like Massachusetts and George Mason.

Spread:

  • VCU +4 (-110)
  • Davidson -4 (-110)
Money line:

  • VCU +157
  • Davidson -177
Total Points:

  • Over 136.5 (-110)
  • Under 136.5 (-110)

VCU Rams

What happened to this VCU Rams team? At the end of January, they were 16-5 with signature wins over the likes of LSU, North Texas, and Richmond, and just about every bracket projection had them making the NCAA tournament. Since then, the wheels have fallen off, and this team isn’t just losing games, they are getting blown out by bad teams.

Nobody is going to fault the Rams for losing to Dayton or Richmond, but all of their other recent losses have come to teams that don’t currently project to make the NCAA tournament. When you are looking to make a big push for an at-large bid, you just can’t lose to teams like Duquesne, George Mason, UMASS, Saint Louis, and Rhode Island.

Davidson Wildcats

This Davidson team certainly has its faults this year. But protecting their home floor isn’t one of them. The Wildcats are a very impressive 10-1 at home this season, with the lone loss coming to a Richmond team that should end the season by playing in the NCAA tournament. And it’s not like the Wildcats have been playing a bunch of cupcakes either, they have an SOS in the top-100.

Davidson has top-100 wins over Rhode Island, Saint Louis, and Nevada. And before the back to back road losses last week, the Wildcats were blowing teams out. They beat St. Bonaventure by twenty-nine, La Salle by seventeen, Fordham by thirty, and UMASS by thirty-five. When this team gets a lead, they like to run it up, and they will do their best to do that tonight on senior night at home.

Who Do I Like?

VCU has been awful on the road all season long. And right now, this team looks like they have given up. When you look back at their hot 16-5 start, only four of those wins came on the road, and all of those came to bad teams ranked outside of the top-150 nationally. Away from home against the top-100, the Rams are an abysmal 0-7 on the year.

That tells me that I should be looking to back the home team in this one, even if it is mostly just a fade of VCU’s inability to win on the road against quality competition. And while the number is a little higher than I would like, we already talked about how Davidson tends to run up the score when they get the opportunity, and I think they just might win this one by double-digits.

The Bet

When you look at the Rams recent four-game road losing streak, they have lost each of those games by at least eight points, and in three of those games, they got blown out. This team just quits on the road when things get tough. They lost to Saint Louis by eighteen, they lost to Richmond by eighteen, and they lost to Rhode Island by twelve.

All of those teams rate out at a similar level or worse than this Davidson team does right now. I think the Wildcats win, and it just might be fairly easy. So, while I don’t love laying more than a full possessions worth of points in a game, I don’t think it is going to burn us tonight in this one. Give me the Davidson Wildcats, laying four points as they look to close their season out on a high note on senior night!

The Bet: Davidson Wildcats -4

My Pick
Davidson Wildcats -4
Jason Gray / Author

Jason is a true Las Vegas insider as he has called the sports betting capital of the world his home for sixteen years. Jason started out his career in gaming by running the biggest poker tournaments in the world and managing some of the biggest sportsbooks on the strip. Jason has transitioned out of casino operations and has been covering sports betting for the sports geek for just over two years. His main focus is on baseball, college basketball, and the NFL