Yale Bulldogs vs. Saint Mary’s Gaels Pick – NCAAB December 28, 2021

The Ivy League’s Yale Bulldogs are on the west coast at Saint Mary’s University in Moraga, California. Yale is looking to get back to .500 after dropping back-to-back games against Iona, 91-77, and Monmouth, 69-60.

The Bulldogs have lost three of their last four attempts, with a win on December 7 against Albany, 71-52. Yale was a 13-point favorite in that one and covered the game relatively easily. However, that’s the only game that the Bulldogs have covered in their last six games.

Yale has covered only two games in nine of their last nine outings. They can win the Ivy League Tournament to get into the NCAA Tournament, though this won’t be easy. Cornell and Princeton look too good for Yale, as does Harvard and Brown.

In their most recent outing, Yale was 1-point favorites over Monmouth though lost straight up by 9 points at home. Their trip to Saint Mary’s is their first true road game since a 86-64 loss at Auburn on December 4.

Yale beat Sienna back on November 16 for their only win on the road. They will try again versus a Saint Mary’s team that is playing good basketball. The only problem for Saint Mary’s is that they have to deal with Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference.

As long as Gonzaga remains in the conference, it’s going to be tough to win the West Coast. The conference has been pretty good out of the gate in 2021. Saint Mary’s, BYU, and Gonzaga, and San Francisco are all 11-3 or better going into Tuesday.

Head below for our free Yale vs. Saint Mary’s pick on December 28, 2021.

Yale Bulldogs vs. Saint Mary’s Gaels Betting Odds and Team Statistics:

The following odds are courtesy of BetUS:

Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Yale Bulldogs +13 (-110) +625 Over 128 (-110)
Saint Mary’s Gaels -13 (-110) -850 Under 128 (-110)
Team Data Yale Bulldogs Saint Mary’s Gaels
Overall Record 6-7 11-3
ATS Record 4-8-0 8-5-0
Away/Home Record 1-3 8-0
ATS Away/Home 1-3-0 5-2-0
Points Per Game 72.8 67.5
Points Against Per Game 69.8 58.0
Field Goal % 41.8 46.4
Three Point % 32.7 33.7

Yale vs. Saint Mary’s Prediction:

The Yale Bulldogs need to find some shooters in California at Saint Mary’s. The offense has been stale for most of the year. They have their moments, but consistency hasn’t been in their vocabulary.

Yale is shooting 41.8% from the field for 286th in the NCAA. When they’ve been on the road this season, the Bulldogs field goal percentage drops to 35.2%. Yale has played plenty of games at home, but they haven’t been able to take advantage of the home-court advantage.

When the Bulldogs do go on the road, it hasn’t been the prettiest output for them. They have scored 60.8 points while allowing 70.3 points per game. I’m not sure a trip across the country to California is going to help.

Saint Mary’s defense can be tough to score on. The Gaels are 11th in the NCAA with 58 points against per game. When they’re at home, the Gaels have conceded an impressive 55.9 points a game. They should have the upper hand on the defensive floor in this one.

Yale Bulldogs vs. Saint Mary’s Gaels Betting Trends:


  • 1-5 ATS in their previous six games
  • 0-4 ATS in their previous four games as an underdog
  • 2-5 ATS in their previous seven games on the road
  • 0-5 ATS in their previous five games versus a team with a winning record
  • 0-7 ATS in their previous seven games versus a team with a winning percentage better than 60%

Saint Mary’s

  • 4-1 ATS in their previous five games as a betting favorite
  • 4-1 ATS in their previous five games at Saint Mary’s
  • 10-0 overall in their previous ten games at Saint Mary’s
  • 6-3 ATS in their previous nine games
  • 5-1 overall in their previous six games versus the Ivy League

Saint Mary’s is a perfect 8-0 at home this season. With the defense suffocating the competition for less than 60 points per game, they’ve been scoring on the opposite end as well.

The Gaels have netted 74.4 points per game, with a solid field goal percentage of 47.8%. I don’t know if Yale is going to have enough in them on this road trip to keep pace.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Yale perhaps hanging around early on, though the defensive pressure from the Gaels will likely be too much. Saint Mary’s is coming off a 75-58 win over Missouri State on December 22.

Their matchup tonight against Yale looks like a carbon copy of that outing. Expect Saint Mary’s to get this one done by 16 or 17 points to cover the double-digit spread.


Yale vs. Saint Mary’s Pick
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.

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