Happy Labor Day in the United States and Labour Day in Canada as we have 11 MLB games coming your way throughout the day and evening on this Monday.
That said, FanDuel is dialling up a 6-game main slate today, so let’s dive right in and earn ourselves some holiday Monday cash, shall we?
FanDuel MLB DFS Picks – September 7, 2020
P – Dinelson Lamet (SD) – $9,000 vs. COL
Lamet hasn’t been at his best his last couple times out, but the matchup at home against the Rockies is a favorable one for the right-handed strikeout artist.
Not only is Petco Park in San Diego one of the more pitcher-friendly parks in baseball, but the Rockies are one of baseball’s worst offenses anywhere not named Coors Field.
Entering this one, the Rockies rank 28th with a .282 wOBA on the road this season while their elevated 25.2% strikeout rate on the road checks in at 22nd league wide.
Against right-handed pitching, the Rockies are tied for 22nd with a .312 wOBA this season, but also sit 27th with a 78 wRC+ against righties on the season.
Enter Lamet who sports a 2.62 ERA/3.32 FIP on the season, but most importantly owns a 11.49 K/9 on the season, a number almost directly in line with his 11.68 career mark.
He’s allowed six earned runs over his last 11.1 innings spanning two starts, but this would appear to be a fine matchup for the talented right-hander to get things turned around, so let’s give him a shot in this matchup tonight.
C/1B – Carlos Santana (CLE) – $2,700 vs. KC
The Indians and Royals renew AL Central hostilities tonight from Cleveland and the Tribe get right-hander Brad Keller on the bump for the Royals.
Keller’s results have been stellar early on as he’s worked to a 1.93 ERA on the season, but look out for the regression. He also owns a 3.00 FIP and 4.27 xFOP and while not terrible whatsoever, they are still well above his ERA figure. That said, for me it’s the 4.82 SIERA he owns. SIERA attempts to indicate the true performance of a pitcher minus factors out of his control, and the fact that number is roughly three earned runs higher than his ERA spells trouble for me. He’s also a low strikeouts guy with a career 6.50 K/9, doesn’t exhibit quality control with a 3.56 BB/9 for his career and a 3.89 mark this season while his .230 BABIP against is well under his .283 career mark.
So, let’s kick off this Indians stack here with Santana who hasn’t hit for a ton of power with a .104 ISO on the season, but he still owns a big .353 OBP on the back of a monster 19.4% walk rate. The numbers are also superior against lefties, but here’s a guy that owns a career .208 ISO, .803 OPS and 119 wRC+ against right-handed pitching.
At the end of the day, his bat is going to come around and coming off a two-hit effort last night, let’s get the patient first baseman into this lineup tonight.
2B – Cesar Hernandez (CLE) – $2,800 vs. KC
Usually I chose Franmil Reyes in an Indians four-man stack as he’s been the team’s top power bat against right-handed pitching, but I’m going to differentiate a bit here and get Hernandez out of the leadoff spot.
The veteran switch-hitter has been real good against right-handed pitching this season himself, posting a .798 OPS, .351 wOBA and 118 wRC+ versus right-handers while his .378 OBP against righties should set the table nicely for this stack tonight.
Hernandez hasn’t hit for a ton of home run power this season with just two homers, however he does have 14 doubles on the season with 12 of them coming off a right-hander. I can’t quite explain the lack of stolen bases for Hernandez this season as he has zero after stealing nine bases last season but also at least 15 from 2015-2018. That said, his sprint speed sits in the league’s 92nd percentile, as per Statcast, and he’s still just 30 years of age, so I don’t think the potential has disappeared in that department.
Add it up and I’ll take Hernandez out of the leadoff spot in this stack tonight.
3B – Jose Ramirez (CLE) – $3,800 vs. KC
Here’s where we get a real nice dose of the power/stolen base upside that we so much desire.
After hitting 23 homers and stealing 24 bases last season, Ramirez has hit nine homers this season to go along with another nine stolen bases while his .237 ISO is above his .207 career mark. He also owns a .356 wOBA and 121 wRC+ on the season, to boot.
Now, the numbers have indeed been better against left-handed pitching. Ramirez has posted a .174 ISO, .324 wOBA and 99 wRC+ against righties but has also stolen six bases off of a right-hander this season.
That said, I anticipate the splits to begin to even out very soon as Ramirez has long been superior versus right-handed pitching as his .215 ISO, .844 OPS, .357 wOBA and 122 wRC+ versus righties in his career are all superior to the same figures against lefties, albeit not by a ton.
He’s also 3 for 10 with two doubles and a stolen bases in his career against Ramirez, so I’ll take the power/speed potential here and move on.
SS – Francisco Lindor (CLE) – $3,400 vs. KC
Concluding out three-man Indians stack here is Lindor who also brings some quality power/speed combination potential into this lineup tonight.
For the season, Lindor has hit six home runs on the season and has also swiped three bases with a respectable 105 wRC+ on the season as well. Also, all six of those home runs have come at the expense of a right-handed pitcher as he owns an even .200 ISO on the season against right-handed pitching while two of his three steals on the season have come against a righty.
The majority of his numbers for his career are superior versus lefties, but the power is superior versus righties as he owns a .212 ISO against them in his career against a .188 mark versus lefties.
Add in what looks to be a 9 mph wind blowing out to right field at Progressive Field tonight and we should get some power at the very least from this four-man left-handed hitting stack, albeit with all four being switch-hitters and very much matchup-proof against this Royals bullpen as well.
OF – Randal Grichuk (TOR) – $3,300 vs. NYY
It’s a critical series between the Blue Jays and Yankees who sit tied for second place in the AL East entering this one tonight, and I like the Jays in this one.
Yankees left-hander Jordan Montgomery hasn’t fared well against right-handed bats so far this season, yielding a .315/.342/.603 slash line to them to go along with a .945 OPS and .394 wOBA to them.
He’s yielded just a .205 wOBA to lefties, so I am going to keep this Jays stack to a three-man, right-handed-hitting group, beginning here with Grichuk who has mashed left-handed pitching this season.
Entering this one tonight, Grichuk has posted a monster .348 ISO, 1.071 OPS, .443 wOBA and 185 wRC+ on the season against southpaw pitching. He’s managed to hit left and right-handed pitching for notable power throughout his career and his .239 career ISO is a fabulous figure.
He hasn’t seen much of Montgomery with just three plate appearances against him, but he’s 1 for 1 with two walks in that time, so he’s clearly seen the ball quite well from Montgomery in his short time against him.
Add it up and Grichuk appears to be a quality look out of the projected two-hole tonight.
OF – Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (TOR) – $3,000 vs. NYY
Next man up in this stack is Gurriel who had himself a monster season in 2019 against left-handed pitching, leading me to believe his splits from this season could even out moving forward.
Last season, he demolished lefties to the tune of a .364 ISO, .994 OPS, .403 wOBA and 155 wRC+ on the season. This year, he’s hit right-handers better and owns a .156 ISO, .700 OPS and .300 wOBA against left-handed pitching, but also a 71.4% line drive/fly ball rate against them as well.
He stole six bases last season and two so far this season, but the real key here is how bad Montgomery has been knocked around by right-handed hitters this season.
I’d like to see Gurriel sporting better numbers versus lefties and Montgomery doesn’t give up many steals at all, but let’s get Gurriel at the end of this stack and see if he can run into one tonight.
OF – George Springer (HOU) – $3,700 vs. OAK
Springer enters this lineup as a one-off atop the Houston batting order against A’s right-hander Frankie Montas.
Montas has struggled this season on the heels of a Cy Young-caliber 2019 season in which he hurled a 2.63 ERA/3.90 FIP.
This season, Montas has posted a 6.06 ERA/4.46 FIP/5.05 xFIP with a big 4.96 BB/9 and 5.04 SIERA as well. He’s just struggling to find it and was roughed up for five earned runs in just 3.1 innings against these very Astros his last time out.
For Springer, he’s enjoying a fine season that includes a .213 ISO, .816 OPS, .355 wOBA and 128 wRC+ on the season against right-handed pitching. He’s been bothered by injuries against this season and hasn’t run as much – attempting just one steal and getting cut down – but still ranks in the league’s 75th percentile in top sprint speed, as per Statcast.
Nonetheless, the power is excellent, as is his spot in the leadoff spot, so let’s see if he can do some damage as a one-off tonight.
UTIL – Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) – $3,100 vs. NYY
Completing our lineup and our three-man Blue Jays stack tonight is Guerrero who should lineup up between Grichuk and Gurriel in some fashion in tonight’s Blue Jays’ lineup.
As I’ve noted when using him in the past, Guerrero posted notable reverse-splits as a rookie last season and thus hit right-handed pitching better than he did lefties. This season, it’s been a different story.
He’s hit left-handed pitching for a .333 ISO, .830 OPS, .339 wOBA and 114 wRC+ on the season while three of his six home runs on the season have come against lefties as well as three of his eight doubles.
He crushed left-handed piching in the minors as well, and with the way Montgomery has struggled against righties, it would appear Guerrero and the massive power he sports in that bat is as good a bet as any to play some long ball on this slate tonight.