Last night’s FanDuel MLB DFS Picks were the best of the season so far. Unfortunately, that was also the case for many as it was an insanely high-scoring slate wish cash lines in the 170-range in GPPs, which is massive.
Fortunately, I cashed in six of my seven GPPs with the lineup I released yesterday thanks to a monster night for A’s third baseman Matt Chapman in particular.
Chapman homered twice, tripled, drove in six runs and scored three of his own – all by the top of the fourth inning. The A’s had nine runs by that point, and that’s when you’re licking your lips for more off a poor Angels bullpen. That said, the A’s didn’t score another run from there and despite getting some extra points from some walks and singles, I was disappointed in the missed opportunity.
Aside from Chapman, Matt Olson walk twice and scored twice, Ramon Laureano walked twice and scored once while Marcus Semien remained ice cold with just one walk out of the leadoff spot.
The Rangers stack also showed early promise, but failed to deliver for the most part. Shin-Soo Choo and Nick Solak both stole a base on the night while Solak also singled and scored a run. Choo added a walk and a run. Each man scored 15.2 FanDuel points, which I can live with.
The problem was Joey Gallo netting us just three points on a walk and Rougned Odor also netted just three points on a single. Odor has a couple of early opportunties with two men on base, but didn’t do any damage. It was a disappointing result that could have worked out much better for us.
Other than Chapman, the best performance of the night came from Lance McCullers Jr. who actually took a no-hitter into the seventh inning, and while that was broken up, he hurled seven innings of shutout ball with five strikeouts on his way to a win. I would have loved more punchouts, but the 46-point effort was just was the doctor ordered.
After our best showing of the season, let’s move on and tackle tonight’s 12-game main slate!
FanDuel MLB DFS Picks – August 11, 2020
P – Max Scherzer (WSH) – $10,700 vs. NYM
Pitching is fairly scarce tonight with not a ton of reliability in between back-end starters and bullpen days, so I’m simply going to roll with Scherzer as he takes on the Mets.
Scherzer left his last start after just one inning with hamstring tightness, but after throwing a bullpen session it appears he’s good to go for this one tonight against the Mets.
That’s not two out of three starts that have been cut short for Max Max after his Opening Day nod was cut shirt due to rain, but he’s been excellent in the strikeout department once again and that’s what I’m here for.
Scherzer owns a 3.29 and huge 5.27 BB/9 rate that are not up to his standards, but he also owns a 2.51 FIP, 2.38 xFIP and a massive 14.49 K/9 clip through his 13.2 innings to this point.
While there are some Mets bats that have actually has success against him, let’s keep in mind Scherzer owns a 2.67 career ERA against the Mets across 138 innings of work and a tidy 12.0 K/9 against them in that time. Additionally, Scherzer owns a 2.12 ERA with a 12.4 K/9 and 5.55 K/BB ratio in 12 starts and 80.2 innings in his career at Citi Field.
Pitch count isn’t an issue here as he threw 112 pitches in his second-to-last start and should still be built up enough to rack up the punchouts in this one tonight.
C/1B – Jose Abreu (CWS) – $3,100 vs. DET
It would be a shame if Jose Abreu doesn’t suit up for this one as he left last night’s game with a sore hip after stepping on first base awkwardly, because he’s one of, if not my top play on this slate.
It’s been reported that Abreu felt fine after the game, so let’s hope he’s in the lineup for this one because he rakes lefties, he rakes Tigers pitching, he rakes at Comerica Park and he’s raked Tigers left-hander Tyler Alexander in his career.
Alexander gets a start after tying an MLB record with nine straight strikeouts in his last outing – a relief appearance – but Alexander doesn’t exactly have a history of dominating in the minor leagues and pitched to a 4.86 ERA in his first taste of the big leagues last season after posting a 5.13 ERA/4.85 FIP at Triple-A in 2019 as well.
That said, this is more about his Abreu and his success in these scenarios. He’s off to a slow start this season, but last year he hit lefties for a .360 average, .232 ISO, 1.009 OPS, .420 wOBA and 168 wRC+. For his career, he’s hit lefties to the tune of a .310 average, .234 ISO, .923 OPS, .388 wOBA and a 149 wRC+.
In his career against the Tigers, Abreu has hit for a .981 OPS with 20 home runs in 103 games against them. In his career at Comerica Park in Detroit, Abreu owns a .992 OPS with 13 home runs across 55 games. In his career against Alexander, Abreu has gone 6 for 11 (.545) with a double.
I believe he’s set up for plenty of success in this matchup tonight, but let’s keep an eye on his status as the day moves along.
2B – Mike Brosseau (TB) – $2,300 vs. BOS
The Rays face Red Sox left-hander Martin Perez tonight, a pitcher who held Tampa Bay scoreless over five innings his last time out. That said, he allowed north of 46% hard contact in that one and is simply not a very good pitcher at this stage in his career coming off a 5.12 ERA from last season and a 6.22 mark from the 2018 campaign. Now that the Rays have seen him and have watched film of their mistakes against him, I believe there’s adjustments to be had.
Enter Brosseau who comes in extremely cheap at the second base position, and I prefer him over the far more expensive Brandon Lowe at the same position as Perez fares much worse against right-handed bats.
Besides, Brosseau has done nothing but rake lefties in his brief big league career to this point. Across 90 MLB plate appearances against lefties, Brosseau has hit .310 with a .253 ISO, .897 OPS, .374 wOBA and 140 wRC+, including a .353 average, .471 ISO, 1.176 OPS, .490 wOBA and 227 wRC+ across a small 17 at-bat sample size this season.
He’s off to a fine major league start after he raked Triple-A pitching for 16 homers and a .263 ISO last season prior to his call up, so I’ll look for Brosseau to take aim at the Green Monster tonight at Fenway.
3B – Yoan Moncada (CWS) – $3,500 vs. DET
Next man up in our White Sox stack is Moncada who is developing into one of the top all-round players in the bigs after posting a career-best year in 2019.
The 25-year-old is picking up where he left off last season with three homers, a .370 wOBA and 144 wRC+ on the season after his 25-homer, 10-steal season from last year when he posted a .379 wOBA and 141 WRC+. We’ve yet to see Moncada swipe a base this season, and while it will be tough off the lefty Alexander, he did steal a pair of bags off lefties last season.
That said, we’re here for the power. The switch-hitting third baseman hit lefties for a .299 average, .201 ISO, .845 OPS, .352 wOBA and 122 wRC+ last season. While his numbers were superior versus righties, I would expect him to get at least a couple at-bats against a right-hander tonight as Alexander will probably max out at 80 pitches in this one.
Nonetheless, the power/speed potential here is excellent and he’s certainly a part of any White Sox stack I end up with tonight.
SS – Tim Anderson (CWS) – $2,700 vs. DET
Here’s where we could land some big-time value.
Anderson is still technically on the IL, however he’s expected to be activated and in the lineup for tonight’s contest, likely hitting in the leadoff spot against the lefty Alexander.
Coming off a battle title thanks to a .335 average from last season, Anderson had also picked up where he left off, hitting .333 with a .391 wOBA and 158 wRC+ in seven games this season before hitting the shelf with a groin injury.
Like with Moncada, we get some power/speed potential with Anderson. Last season, he hit 18 homers and stole 17 bases while he hit 20 homers and stole 26 bases in the 2018 season. Again, the stolen base upside is limited to start against Alexander, but Anderson does have 13 of his 68 career steals against lefties while hitting them for a .316 average, .823 OPS, .348 wOBA and 121 wRC+ for his career – numbers that are far superior to his work against righties.
Last season, Anderson was actually a slightly reverse splits hitter with numbers tilted a little towards righties, but again, Alexander isn’t going deep into this one, so Anderson is going to face both in this contest tonight with big value upside out of the leadoff spot.
OF – Jose Martinez (TB) – $2,900 vs. BOS
Martinez is off to a hot start with his new team in Tampa Bay and I like his value potential tonight against the left-hander Perez.
It was widely known that he was best suited for AL duty due to the DH (that’s not in both leagues at least for 2020) so he was moved to the Rays and has opened up his campaign with a .214 ISO, .352 wOBA and 133 wRC+ with a pair of homers in 13 games so far.
That said, the power has almost exclusively come against lefties so far as he’s hit for a .300 ISO against them versus a .136 mark against righties. One of his two homers and all three of his doubles so far have come against a lefty.
It’s simply a continuation from last season when he hit lefties for a .329 average, .271 ISO, .997 OPS, .414 wOBA and 160 wRC+ against southpaws. For his career, Martinez has hit lefties for a .244 ISO, .966 OPS, .406 wOBA and 158 wRC+.
It’s a tiny sample, but Martinez has gone 1 for 2 with a double in his career against Perez, so we’ll look for him to keep up the good work against lefties in this one tonight.
OF – Hunter Renfroe (TB) – $2,800 vs. BOS
The righty-stacking against the lefty Perez continues here with Renfroe who boasts some light-tower power against southpaws.
Last season in which he hit 33 homers with a .273 ISO as a member of the Padres, Renfroe posted a massive .336 ISO against lefties to go along with a .906 OPS, .364 wOBA and 127 wRC+. His low batting average and swing-and-miss ways lower most of his numbers, but few in the game of baseball have superior power against lefties to Renfroe.
The good news is that Renfroe actually hit for a .364 ISO and .972 OPS against lefties at home last year. That’s good because his former home at Petco Park in San Diego is one of the least hitter-friendly parks in baseball. Contrarily, Fenway Park in Boston is one of the league’s most hitter-friendly venues for right-handed power hitters, such as Renfroe.
It’s a big opportunity for the slugger tonight and we are getting him at a wonderful price to boot.
OF – Manuel Margot (TB) – $2,100 vs. BOS
There’s another outfield option in Austin Meadows who, despite hitting from the left side, hit lefties quite well last season. But again, Perez struggles far more against righties and Margot, a right-handed hitter, comes to us at a near-minimum price coming off a breakout effort last night.
He’s hitting just .189 with a 65 wRC+ in his first season with the Rays after coming over alongside Renfroe from the Padres, but Margot busted out of a season-long slump with authority last night, going 4 for 4 with two doubles, two runs scored, an RBI and a stolen base to boot.
The good news is that stolen base actually came against a lefty while Margot has generally handled lefties better than righties in his career. He’s not a bat-first player, but his .274 average, .154 ISO, .762 OPS, .326 wOBA and 103 wRC+ against lefties for his career are all superior to his numbers against righties.
He’s also swiped 14 of his 51 career bases against a lefty and is coming off a career-high 20-steal season from 2019. Furthermore, keep in mind that Perez allowed 13 steals last season in his 165.1 innings of work – a rather large number for a left-handed pitcher.
A final reason why I like the Rays tonight: Last night was a bullpen game for the Red Sox, so if the Rays can jump on Perez, Boston will either be forced to leave a struggling starter in or go to a tired bullpen afterwards, one that allowed eight runs last night and one that ranks 21st with a 4.48 ERA on the season.
This four-man Rays stack has value written all over it tonight.
UTIL – Mike Trout (LAA) – $4,500 vs. OAK
Sure, he’s going to see some ownership tonight, but we might not be able to afford not to roster him the way he’s going right now and with the matchup on tap.
Trout didn’t begin the season in Trout-like form, but he enjoyed a monster night at the plate last night, going 4 for 4 with two homers, four runs scored and three RBI. All the sudden, the guy is hitting .333 with seven home runs, a .407 ISO, 1.124 OPS, .459 wOBA and 205 wRC+.
Next is the matchup with A’s right-hander Mike Fiers, who Trout has owned in his career. Against Fiers, Trout has gone 12 for 31 (.387) with five home runs, four doubles, six walks, a .613 ISO, 1.486 OPS and .592 wOBA. I think that’s pretty good.
Again, expect ownership here, but I still don’t mind him in this lineup that I will likely use in GPPs as the Rays stack should go low owned while the large slate should cover us with the White Sox stack as well.
As always, follow me on Twitter @BKemp17 for any updates as it pertains to this lineup!