It’s a tiny three-game main MLB slate tonight over at FanDuel, but there’s still plenty of money to be had so let’s dive in and see where we go to make that money!
FanDuel MLB DFS Picks – September 14, 2020
P – Dinelson Lamet (SD) – $10,100 vs. LAD
Time to see if Lamet can hang with the big boys.
The pitching is thin on this slate as I’m not trusting anyone outside of this matchup as it came down to Kershaw or Lamet to me. Kershaw has elite career numbers against the Padres and at Petco Park in San Diego, but to me the strikeout potential lies here with Lamet as he takes on a thunderous Dodgers lineup.
The Dodgers don’t strike out much as a team, but Lamet brings a monster 11.69 K/9 clip into this one tonight while also working to a 2.24 ERA/2.94 FIP on the season while his 2.58 BB/9 and 0.86 HR/9 clips are both excellent figures.
His last time out, all Lamet did was toss 7.2 innings of shutout ball to go along with 11 punchouts in a no-decision against the Rockies at home. The Rockies are a bad road offense, but it’s the second time this season Lamet has struck out 11 in a game. I also like the fact he has gone at least 6.1 innings in each of his last two starts as getting deep into ball games hasn’t been easy for the right-hander.
The matchup is difficult, but I think Lamet is up to the task in this one tonight.
C/1B – Miguel Sano (MIN) – $3,200 vs. CWS
Don’t rule out the White Sox getting to Jose Berrios as he tends to struggle on the road. That said, my money is on the Twins here as Dylan Cease is in for some serious regression and the Twins are a nice target to deliver said regression.
The Twins enter this one ranked sixth with a .337 wOBA on the season against right-handed pitching and Cease enters with a 3.33 ERA. That said, he also owns a 5.95 FIP, 5.81 xFIP and a 5.72 SIERA. He’s going to get roughed up and soon.
Enter Sano who has just clobbered right-handed pitching to the tune of a .346 ISO, .942 OPS, .388 wOBA and a 147 wRC+ on the season while he’s launched 11 home runs overall on the heels of a 2019 season in which he clubbed 34 long balls. Strikeouts remain a major issue with a massive 43% K-rate on the season, but when this guy barrels it up he does some serious damage.
He could also be moved up the lineup tonight with Eddie Rosario questionable, so lock Sano into your lineups tonight.
2B – Jurickson Profar (SD) – $2,900 vs. LAD
This lineup is of the GPP variety, but I wonder if Profar can run into one tonight off of Kershaw while he brings a nice combination of pop and speed to the lineup.
The switch-hitting second baseman as hit six home runs on the season and stolen five bases to boot. Three of those six homers have come against a left-handed pitcher while his .180 ISO off of lefties is far superior to his .130 mark against righties, although the remainder of his advanced splits are fairly even.
Profar is entering this one fairly hot at the plate as he’s gone 3 for 4 over his last two games with a run, an RBI and a stolen base in that time while all of that production came as part of a double-header yesterday.
He’s likely to see low ownership even on a three-game slate, so let’s see if Profar can deliver some low-owned value to the lineup tonight.
3B – Josh Donaldson (MIN) – $3,100 vs. CWS
He missed all of August with a calf issue, but Donaldson has raked right-handed pitching when given the chance this season.
In 50 plate appearances versus righties here in 2020, Donaldson has raked to the tune of a .262 ISO, .884 OPS, .372 wOBA and a 135 wRC+. He’s long been a superior bat versus left-handed pitching, but he’s struggled mightily versus lefties in a tiny sample here in 2020.
Donaldson played some long ball in yesterday’s contest with the rival Indians, giving him two homers over his last five games while he’s worked a double in there as well. He’s recorded at least one hit in four of those five games.
At 34 he’s not the MVP player he was back in the 2015 season, but Donaldson remains a potent bat as evidenced by his 37 home runs with the Atlanta Braves last season, so let’s make sure he’s in our lineup out of the projected two-hole tonight.
SS – Jose Iglesias (BAL) – $2,800 vs. ATL
The Braves are going to see the majority of ownership here as they take on right-hander Jorge Lopez, but Lopez hasn’t been horrible this season and the Orioles’ bullpen has been solid. While the Braves’ bullpen is a good one as well, I think we can get some lower-owned value out of some Orioles tonight, beginning here with Iglesias.
He’s never hit for much power and he’s hit zero home runs this season. That said, he’s also doubled 13 times and 12 of those have come against a right-handed pitcher as he gets set to take on Braves righty Touki Touissant in his return to the bigs after being sent down to the Braves’ alternate training site.
Touissant is likely in for some positive regression moving forward with some peripherals superior to his ERA, but he still owns a 7.89 ERA/6.12 FIP with a massive 5.40 BB/9 and 2.08 HR/9 in his four starts and six appearances this season.
Iglesias brings some stolen base upside to the table despite not stealing a base yet this season as Touissant has allowed two steals in his 21.2 innings while Iglesias has hit righties for a .330 average, .816 OPS, .350 wOBA and 120 wRC+ on the season.
Perhaps he can run into his first homer tonight, but I like the speed aspect and his ability to get on base out of the projected two-hole tonight.
OF – Max Kepler (MIN) – $3,000 vs. CWS
Next man in our four-man Twins stack is Kepler who will be leading things off for us now that he’s returned from a stint on the Injured List.
It’s a good thing too as Kepler has raked right-handed pitching this season. On the year, he’s posted a .275 ISO, .886 OPS, .376 wOBA and a 139 wRC+ on the season against right-handed pitching. Kepler has clubbed seven homers on the season – all against righties – while four of his five doubles on the season have come against a right-handed pitcher.
There’s also a bit of stolen base potential here. Cease hasn’t allowed many steals in his big-league tenure – just three in 119 innings – but Kepler has swiped all three of his bases this season off of a right-handed pitcher as he’s running far more this season than he did last year when he stolen just one base in 134 games.
Additionally, Kepler has gone 1 for 3 with a homer in his brief history against Cease. I really think the Twins get to Cease in this one and getting their righty-mashing leadoff hitter in this stack is a must as a result.
OF – Nelson Cruz (MIN) – $4,200 vs. CWS
I was actually looking to see what a Twins stack without Cruz could afford me, but I just couldn’t pull the trigger as he’s been too good to fade in any Twins stack this season.
Cruz just continues to be a force at the plate at the young age of 40 years old. He’s launched a whopping 16 homers in just 45 games this season while posting a .338 ISO on the whole. Against right-handed pitching, he’s turned in a .298 ISO, .953 OPS, .399 wOBA and a 154 wRC+ for team-best numbers that are slightly ahead of Sano versus righties.
He’s also in full launch mode. Cruz also homered in yesterday’s contest with the Indians and homered in both ends of the Twins’ double-header with the Cardinals last week. That gives him three homers over his last five games.
Like his teammates, his history with Cease is minimal, but he has gone 3 for 4 with a walk in his brief history with the young right-hander, so clearly he is seeing the ball well from Cease’s right hand.
Add it up and I don’t suggest leaving Cruz out of any Twins stacks in this matchup tonight.
OF – Cedric Mullins (BAL) – $2,600 vs. ATL
Orioles stackers are going to do everything they can to get rookie Ryan Mountcastle into their lineups tonight, but I simply couldn’t afford him in this lineup. That said, I am perfectly happy to have Mullins in this stack out of the projected leadoff spot tonight.
He doesn’t bring much home run power to the table with just two homers in 34 games this season, but Mullins brings attractive stolen base upside into this lineup as he’s swiped five bases on the season with all five coming against right-handed pitching.
Mullins stole just one base in 22 big-league games last season, but he also swiped 33 bases between the Double-A and Triple-A levels last season and ranks in the league’s 89th percentile in top sprint speed, as per Statcast, so we know he’s got speed to burn.
He’s also handled himself just fine against right-handed pitching. The lefty-swinging outfielder is hitting .308 with a .772 OPS, .338 wOBA and 112 wRC+ on the season off of right-handed pitching. His .357 on-base percentage against righties is a nice table-setter for this stack.
He should go down as a lower-owned outfielder on a small slate, so let’s see if Mullins can get on base and swipe a bag or two against a pitcher who appears susceptible to the stolen base.
UTIL – DJ Stewart (BAL) – $2,900 vs. ATL
Completing our lineup and our three-man Orioles stack here is Stewart who has been Baltimore’s best hitter against right-handed pitching.
Stewart enters this one sporting a monster .432 ISO on the season with six homers in just 18 games on the whole. Off of righties, Stewart has posted a mammoth .444 ISO. 1.132 OPS, .463 wOBA and 197 wRC+ on the season. Indeed, his bat has been 97% above league average this season with park factors baked in.
As you can see in the new pop up on FanDuel, Stewart has a monster .278 wRC+ over the last 30 days. That is the best mark in the majors among players with at least 30 plate appearances in that time, and it’s actually not even close as the Dodgers’ Will Smith sits second with a mark of 232. It’s also superior to the likes of Freddie Freeman, Cruz and Jose Abreu, all of whom will be considered for MVPs in their respective leagues.
The good news is he’s done all this damage against righties with a perfectly reasonable .286 BABIP for the season, so this surge is not built on bloated batted-ball fortune, although he does have a .417 mark over the last 30 days.
If we get this stack as per FantasyLabs’ projected Orioles batting order, we are getting the 1,2 and 3 hitters in this lineup against a struggling pitcher. I’ll take it.