It was a profitable night in cash games for last night’s lineup, thanks in large part to Mike Brosseau and Jose Berrios.
Although he went extremely low owned, I knew Berrios was the right call across the board as he worked six innings of one-run ball with eight strikeouts while earning the win over the White Sox. His 49 FanDuel points were an excellent start.
And then there was Brosseau who got his revenge with the Yankees. Brosseau clobbered a pair of long home runs while enjoying a three-hit night for us, all for the cost-efficient price of $2,500.
From there, however, we did get much. We did get home runs from Marcell Ozuna and Eddie Rosario while Josh Donaldson doubled, singled and knocked in a pair. However, the likes of Nelson Cruz, Freddie Freeman and Dansby Swanson disappointed and Max Kepler hurt his groin after just two at-bats.
Nonetheless, we crossed the cash line in double ups and we move onto tonight’s small four-game main slate.
FanDuel MLB DFS Picks – September 3, 2020
P – Mike Clevinger (SD) – $9,400 vs. LAA
To me, the only pitching options worth considering on this slate are Clevinger and Clayton Kershaw, but for the price I am on the Clevinger bandwagon tonight.
In his first start since coming over from the Indians in a deadline deal, Clevinger will take on the Angels, a badly slumping club that has been solid against right-handed pitching with an eighth-ranked .335 wOBA on the season versus righties, but this actually has more to do with Clevinger and expected run support for a win.
Clevinger excelled in his final start with the Indians coming off a recall from the team’s alternate training site, pitching six innings of two-run ball with six strikeouts on the night. For the season, the right-hander owns a 3.18 ERA, and while his 5.60 FIP and 4.73 xFIP suggest regression, he’s also allowing just 36.7% hard contact on the season.
With the Padres’ offense squaring off against left-hander Andrew Heaney and a poor bullpen that was blown up last night and now ranks 19th with a 4.82 ERA on the season, I’ll look for Clevinger to provide some safety and quality start/win potential for a Padres team that has seen almost everything go their way so far this season.
C/1B – Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) – $3,300 vs. BOS
The Blue Jays and Red Sox renew AL East hostilities tonight in Boston and it’s the Blue Jays who appear in line to strike for some serious offense in this one.
They’ll take on left-hander Martin Perez tonight, a pitcher sporting a 4.58 ERA/5.06 FIP on the season with a 5.49 SIERA to boot. That said, I’m looking more at his numbers from Fenway this season where he owns a 7.36 ERA on the year in 14.2 frames and also a big 1.84 HR/9 as right-handed hitters take aim at the Green Monster against him. For his career, he owns a 6.51 ERA in seven starts at Fenway, so teams have been able to get to him at this venue, clearly.
Enter Guerrero who is hitting .267 with a .342 wOBA and 117 wRC+ on the season with five homers as part of his .191 ISO. Most of his splits are reverse, but the power numbers actually favor lefties as he owns a big .289 ISO versus southpaws this season and just a .151 mark versus righties.
At the end of the day, he’s a power-hitting right-handed bat that can play ping pong with that left field wall or leave the venue all together.
2B – Jonathan Villar (TOR) – $3,000 vs. BOS
You could go with Cavan Biggio at the top of the lineup out of the leadoff spot as he too brings excellent power/speed potential into this one, but once again I want the right-handed bat – or switch-hitting bat – of Villar in this one.
He hasn’t hit great this year with just two homers and a .081 ISO on the season to go along with a .284 wOBA, however I like the matchup. He’s hitting left-handed bats better than he is righties well he still brings excellent stolen base potential to the table here with nine steals on the season, three of which have come against a left-hander.
For his career, the veteran’s splits favor left-handed pitching slightly while he’s coming off a two-hit effort in his second game as a Blue Jays last night against the team he spent the pre-deadline days of 2020 with in the Miami Marlins.
Keep in mind Perez allowed 13 steals last season – a huge number for a lefty – so don’t be discouraged about Villar’s stolen base upside tonight along with the power potential as he’s 4 for 14 with two homers in his career against Perez.
3B – Edwin Rios (LAD) – $2,200 vs. ARI
It would appear that D-backs right-hander Luke Weaver would be in for some positive regression moving forward as he’s worked to an 8.23 ERA this season, but also a 5.66 FIP, 4.65 xFIP and 4.09 SIERA. None are excellent numbers, but he should get better as we move along.
That said, this is all about Rios and his power potential in this one.
The corner infielder got into 28 games with the Dodgers last season and promptly smacked four home runs and posted a massive .340 ISO and 115 wRC+ in the process. This season, he’s hit three homers as part of an almost identical .343 ISO in his 16 games, but this power should not come as a surprise. Before getting the big-league promotion last season, Rios clobbered 31 home runs in 104 games at the Triple-A level, posting a .305 ISO in the process.
For his career, Rios is the proud owner of a .354 ISO, .975 OPS, .400 wOBA and 153 wRC+ on the season against right-handed pitching. For what it’s worth, he’s also 1 for 2 with a homer in his career against Weaver.
So, while Weaver should improve, Rios still clearly presents a difficult matchup with monster power potential at a tiny price.
SS – Xander Bogaerts (BOS) – $3,800 vs. TOR
While I expect the Jays to touch up Perez and a weak Red Sox bullpen, let’s not sleep on Boston either as they are projected to score a healthy 5.1 runs themselves in this one.
The Sox take on right-hander Taijuan Walker in this one, yet another trade deadline acquisition by the Jays. Walker has worked to a 3.27 ERA on the season, but also a 4.62 FIP and 4.91 xFIP to go along with a 4.65 SIERA, so it would appear he could regress moving forward.
That said, while I like the Red Sox’s biggest bats to do some damage tonight, I’m avoid a full stack based on how well the Blue Jays’ bullpen has fared this season.
So give me Bogaerts who is having another big season at the plate, hitting eight homers with three steals as part of his .252 ISO, .378 wOBA and 137 wRC+ on the season. There’s been superior production against lefties, but his splits have began to even out some as he now at least owns a strong .209 ISO, .339 wOBA and 110 wRC+ on the season against righties.
Note that Walker has allowed three steals in 33 innings this season and has allowed at least 15 in each of his last two healthy seasons, so there’s certainly some quality power/speed potential to be had with the elite shortstop bat of Bogaerts tonight.
OF – J.D. Martinez (BOS) – $3,300 vs. TOR
I will complete my Red Sox mini-stack here in a hurry with Martinez who hasn’t had his best season, that’s for sure.
That said, he should see some reduced ownership as a result while we’re getting him at a great price relative to where he’s been in the past.
The two-time 40-homer man has just three on the season so far with a .169 ISO that is well under his .241 mark. He’s also hitting just .218 with a 83 wRC+ as he continues to search for it at the plate. He’s also struggled mightily against righties this season, but here we have a guy who owns a career .224 ISO, .854 OPS, .361 wOBA and 127 wRC+ against right-handed pitching.
It also appears he could be heating up at the plate with a modest three-game hit streak entering this one, but also with a double in each of those games while he went 2 for 4 with a double and two RBI in last night’s loss to the Braves.
Let’s see if we can get an under-owned, low-price Martinez to deliver some value for this lineup tonight.
OF – Joc Pederson (LAD) – $2,700 vs. ARI
I will complete a low-cost Dodgers mini-stack here with Pederson who, like Rios, has big-time power versus righties, it’s just he’s been doing it for much longer in the big leagues.
Pederson isn’t hitting as well as Rios has this season with a .193 average and 308 wOBA< however he still has five homer runs on the season to go along with a nice .205 ISO.
This is all about his power versus righties, however, as he’s posted a .263 ISO, .855 OPS, .362 wOBA and 130 wRC+ for his career versus right-handed pitching while working to a .222 ISO, .321 wOBA and 103 wRC+ against righties so far this season.
He’s 0 for 4 in his career against Weaver, but it doesn’t take long for this bat to strike against right-handed pitching.
OF – Randal Grichuk (TOR) – $3,400 vs. BOS
Let’s go ahead and complete our four-man Blue Jays stack here with a pair of outfielders that have brought a wealth of power to the table against left-handed pitching this season.
For his part, Grichuk has tattooed lefties to the tune of a .375 average, .400 ISO, 1.180 OPS, .466 wOBA and 216 wRC+ on the season to this point. That said, while I love the splits, they’re liking to even out some moving forward as he’s got both lefties and righties for notable power in his career and owns a career ISO of .240 which is actually a big numbers and an underrated one.
What’s more is Grichuk is projected to his second in this lineup tonight, meaning he will technically be leading off this stack and his .405 OBP versus lefties should at least set the table even if he doesn’t hit for power.
He’s 3 for 7 with a double in his career against Perez, but let’s look for him to sky one over the monster in this one tonight.
UTIL – Teoscar Hernandez (TOR) – $3,900 vs. BOS
Completing this lineup and our four-man Jays stack is Hernandez who has been the team’s top power-hitter this season.
He’s long been able to hit for power, but he’s taken it to a new level this time around as he’s homered 12 times on the season and owns a .321 ISO as part of a .405 wOBA and 160 wRC+. That said, it’s his power against lefties that is so attractive here.
Hernandez has touched up lefties for a massive .459 ISO, 1.107 OPS, .449 wOBA and 191 wRC+ on the season. The good news is that he’s also clobbered righties for a .266 ISO, .927 OPS, .388 wOBA and 148 wRC+ on the season. As a result, he’s matchup-proof for when the bullpen eventually comes into this game, hopefully early after the Jays hop all over Perez.
Throw in some stolen base upside for Hernandez as well as he’s swiped five bags on the season and while all five have come against a righty, Perez is clearly susceptible to the stolen base.
After Perez leaves, we get a 27th-ranked Red Sox bullpen coming in, a group sporting a 5.65 ERA on the season. Add it all up and there’s a reason why the Blue Jays are projected to score a healthy 5.5 runs tonight.