Last night’s two-game slate didn’t treat us very well, but for me personally it was a light night as I didn’t like the slate much at all. As a side note, I’ll add a brief conclusion at the end of my picks outlining how much I like the slate and how heavy I plan on playing.
In short, we got points from just two of last night’s players. John Tavares tallied a pair of assists and three shots on goal while Tomas Tatar ended up being an excellent GPP look with a goal and six shots at about 7% owned in my smaller stakes GPPs.
We also looked good with Alexandar Georgiev going into overtime with the Bruins, but a Brad Marchand breakaway goal ended our win hopes with Georgiev at about 14% owned.
We return to normalcy tonight with a 10-game slate as we’ll look to lock in some GPP picks that should get us across the cash lines!
FanDuel NHL DFS Picks – February 11, 2021
C – Dylan Larkin (DET) – $7,200 vs. NSH
Two nights ago, we got Larkin at less than 2% owned and he provided an assist and a pair of shots on goal in a solid outing for what is once again the worst offense in the NHL as the Red Wings averaging just 1.93 goals per game on the season.
So, why are we using the Wings here? Well, it’s a chance to get an elite player into our lineup at tiny ownership against a defense that has been wildly inconsistent this season.
The Predators are coming off a 6-1 beatdown from the Lightning on Tuesday, the fifth time over their last six in which they allowed at least four goals while they’ve allowed at least five in three of the six games.
Overall, the Predators rank 26th while allowing 3.54 goals per game on the season and while many of their peripherals are middle-of-the-pack numbers, they also boast the NHL’s worst penalty kill at just 62.8% on the season while their 2.25 goals against/60 at 5v5 this season isn’t all that much higher than their expected 2.10 mark, so perhaps this is the true Predators defense that is just struggling mightily at the moment.
For his part, Larkin has tallied four goals and nine points in 14 games, but has also put 42 shots on goal. His resulting 9.5% shooting rate is in line with his 9.4% career mark, but I’ll take his skill level against this Preds defense at the moment.
C – Elias Pettersson (VAN) – $6,700 vs. CGY
There are many more teams the public is down on more than these Canucks as they’ll enter this rivalry matchup with the Flames riding a five-game losing skid, but again let’s get some elite-level skill into this lineup at low ownership.
No one is going to argue Pettersson’s elite skill set, but it’s just been a tough year for all involved in Vancouver. He’ll enter tonight’s contest with five goals and 11 points in 16 games to go along with 38 shots on goal. Considering the fact he had just one point through his first six games, however, you’ll see he now has 10 points over his last 10 games and is riding a four-game point streak into this one.
The Canucks have already been haunted by their former goaltender Jacob Markstrom this season, but it’s a defense that ranks 16th in the league and a penalty kill that sits 21st. They do rank 10th in expected goals against/60 at 5v5, but I like the opportunity here with a high-ceiling Canucks stack.
The Canucks are right in the middle of the pack at 15th with 3.06 goals per game on the season, but also sit 8th in scoring chances for/60, 13th in high-danger chances for/60 and 10th in expected goals for/60.
It’s the team’s atrocious defense that has been the major issue this season, so let’s see if Pettersson can stay hot in this one tonight.
W – Filip Zadina (DET) – $3,200 vs. NSH
I was all over Zadina’s value upside on Tuesday against the Panthers, and he rewarded us with a goal and two shots in that one while skating more than 17 minutes with Larkin on the top line while also seeing some second-unit power play reps as well.
Watch: Filip Zadina scores his first goal of the season
The Red Wings feel like they’re back to full-strength. Zadina missed time due to COVID-19
— Brad Galli (@BradGalli) February 10, 2021
He hasn’t received much accolades yet in his career, but for a young player playing on the league’s worst offense, his NHL production so far has been admirable.
His goal on Tuesday was the first of his season, but he now has a solid four points in seven games for the campaign while he’s notched 10 goals and 22 points in 44 career games. Of course, the latter is a 41-point pace in an 82-game season while his goals pace sits at 19 in an 82-game season. At the age of 21 on this Red Wings team, that’s quality production.
This is also a guy that tore up junior hockey in his lone season in the AMJHL, scoring 44 goals in just 57 games before scoring seven goals in eight games at the 2018 World Juniors on a subpar Czech Republic team.
So long as he’s skating with Larkin, Zadina brings plenty of value potential to the lineup and we’re going to get it at low ownership to be sure.
W – Brock Boeser (VAN) – $7,300 vs. CGY
There’s nothing wrong with the season Boeser is having to this point as he’s been the least of the team’s concerns.
Boeser has already bagged nine goals on the season to tie him with a few others for second-most in the league behind Auston Matthews’ 11, and he’s put 39 shots on goal in his 16 games so far this season.
Sure, his shooting rate of 23.1% is unsustainably high and well above his 13.5% mark, but after posting a small 9.5% mark last season, Boeser was due for some better puck luck this time around considering his career-low was 12.4% prior to last season.
The 23-year-old is going to flank Pettersson on the team’s top line and top power play unit for this one, and I would expect the Canucks’ man advantage to at least improve on their 17.5% clip moving forward now that Pettersson has seemingly found a consistent game. The Flames’ penalty kill is certainly nothing to write home about, so some man-advantage cooking could very well be in the cards for the Canucks in this one.
I just like this spot for the Canucks. Their five games against the Maple Leafs and Canadiens resulted in five consecutive losses, but they deserved a far better fate against the Maple Leafs on Monday and after getting two days off and getting back home, I believe they can build off that effort in this matchup.
They’ll be ready to play some former teammates in this one and I think the top line could be in for a sneaky-big night tonight.
D – Filip Hronek (DET) – $3,800 vs. NSH
Speaking of producing on a league-worst offense, Hronek’s production has largely went unnoticed despite putting up some excellent numbers.
When the Red Wings ranked last — by far — in averaging just 2.00 goals per game last season, the 22-year-old (at the time) Hronek notched nine goals and 31 points in 65 games with 125 shots in that time. He’s yet to score this season, but has six assists in 14 games to go along with 31 shots on goal and another 11 blocked shots to boot.
Among players with at least 31 shots this season, only Hronek and Chicago’s Duncan Keith are without a goal among the 86 qualifiers in that department. In other words, he’s due.
In 125 career NHL games, Hronek has tallied 14 goals and 60 points with 229 shots. That’s a 39-point pace and considering his career shooting rate is 6.1% — fairly high for a defenseman — he should be in the goal column ASAP given his high shot volume.
He’ll form a PP2 mini-stack with Zadina against this disaster of a Predators penalty kill, but at 5v5 this trio should be able to generate some chances tonight.
D – Aaron Ekblad (FLA) – $5,600 vs. TB
Don’t get me wrong, the Tampa Bay Lighting remain an elite team and their defense is very good. As good as it is, however, it’s a back end due to regress.
Despite ranking 13th in expected goals against/60 at 5v5 this season, the Lighting rank first in actual goals against/60 at 5v5 this season. Their 1.30 goals against/60 at 5v5 is well under their 2.00 expected mark and considering they also rank 22nd in scoring chances against/60 at 5v5, we should certainly start to see the team yield more even-strength offense this season.
The Panthers sit 13th with 3.10 goals per game on the season, but they’ve also done major damage on the power play at 37% on the campaign, tied with the Washington Capitals for the best mark in the business. The Lightning rank 8th on the PK, but the Panthers’ man advantage is certainly cooking.
For his part, Ekblad is having a nice season with three goals and seven points in 10 games to go along with 27 shots on goal. He’s been one of the better goal-scoring defenseman since entering the league in the 2014-15 season and also one of the top shot-volume blueliners as well.
Patric Hornqvist scores an impromptu goal off the chest, assisted by Aaron Ekblad pic.twitter.com/lCBBeiqaDp
— SB Nation NHL (@SBNationNHL) February 10, 2021
His 11.1% shooting rate is well above his 6.6% career mark, but given the regression to be had for this Lightning back end, I like the chances of him getting back on the scoresheet in this one.
UTIL – J.T. Miller (VAN) – $6,200 vs. CGY
Miller has taken his fair share of the blame in Vancouver in their rough 2021 season so far, but I’m not so sure it’s been warranted.
After all, the guy is building off a career-best 2019-20 campaign that saw him erupt for 72 points in 69 games as he’s recorded 13 points in as many games this season. He has just three goals on the year and isn’t shooting the puck a lot with just 21 shots this season as well, but his shooting rate of 14.3% is right in line with his 14.1% career mark.
That said, he’s been held off the scoresheet in each of the last two games with two shots in that time, but he also hit a crossbar in the team’s loss on Monday against the Leafs while skating 22:18 in that one.
As a three-man stack, this high-ceiling trio has monster upside here. If this were last season, this group would see notable ownership on this slate, but the public is going to be off of them for the most part given their five straight losses.
Many won’t realize the productive of the top line, however, given the early-season criticism of Pettersson, but the truth is these guys have produced results of late, results that will fly under the radar in what I believe is a sneaky-good spot for the home side here.
UTIL – Aleksander Barkov (FLA) – $7,400 vs. TB
We’ll see how much ownership Barkov ends up with tonight, but many will be on the white-hot Lightning in this matchup, especially considering Sergei Bobrovsky’s struggles again this season.
He’s been held off the scoresheet in back-to-back games entering this one, but Barkov has had a big season despite losing his right winger Evgenii Dadonov in free agency while he’s not even skating with Jonathan Huberdeau at 5v5.
The elite 25-year-old has notched four goals and 11 points in 10 games this season and he’s been a weapon on the power play, tallying two goals and five points on the man advantage this season. He’ll also form a PP1 mini-stack with Ekblad in this lineup.
With 38 shots on the season, his resulting 10.5% shooting rate is notably under his 13.3% career mark, so perhaps he’s in for some positive goal-scoring regression as well.
The Panthers scored just three goals over their last two games, so it’s not a major surprise to see him without a point in that time. Still, this is a guy that’s going to skate more than 20 minutes in this one as Joel Quenneville will need to lean heavily on his top two lines tonight while they should see the overwhelming majority of power play opportunities if the team is going to keep pace with this high-octane Lightning offense.
Again, it’s the Lightning’s 5v5 defensive regression I’m targeting here, but of course this Panthers power play has been deadly as well, so I feel real good about getting another high-ceiling stack into this lineup.
G – Joonas Korpisalo (CBJ) – $7,100 vs. CHI
The Blackhawks are surprising many across the league as they’ve shown plenty of resiliency given their watered down forward group, but much of that surge has been on the shoulders of goaltender Kevin Lankinen who owns an unsustainable 2.17 GAA and .933 Sv% on the season.
The offense has been decent in averaging a 20th-ranked 2.79 goals per game on the season, but their power play is also clicking at an unsustainable 35.6% clip on the season (yes, Florida’s is unsustainable too).
The Blackhawks rank 22nd in expected goals for/60 at 5v5, so we’re certainly not dealing with a juggernaut here.
The Blue Jackets’ blueline hasn’t been as good as it was last season as they sit 19th in expected goals against/60 on the season and sit 21st in overall defense on the season, but I like the spot here for Korpisalo.
After a disastrous three-game stretch, Korpisalo turned in a winning effort his last outing against the Hurricanes, turning aside 22 of 24 shots (.917 Sv%) in the victory. He also turned aside 31 of 32 shots (.969 Sv%) in a 2-1 win over the Blackhawks in his last meeting with them.
Overall for the season, he owns a suspect 3.14 GAA and .901 Sv%. He’s certainly a much better goaltender than those numbers would suggest, but again it’s a weak Chicago offense I’m targeting here and Korpisalo is coming off a fine outing and his .842 Sv% for the month of February has nowhere to go but up moving forward.
There’s some other GPP options in this price range including Tristan Jarry, Braden Holtby and Martin Jones, but I’ll take Korpisalo in a fine road matchup tonight.
I like this slate, and I love these picks. We have some elite-level skill in this lineup and we’re going to get it at low ownership. An offensive outburst from the Red Wings would be a major boost for this lineup while I believe our three-man Canucks stack will go low-owned despite coming off an excellent effort as a team their last time out and a couple days off to regroup after a tough road trip.
I’ll be investing fairly heavily into tonight’s 10-game slate.