Since I’m basically dedicating my life to political wagering these days, I’m always on the lookout for new and exciting ways to bet. Or at least different angles at which to approach betting the same handful of elections or events taking place at any given time.
The top-tier online sportsbooks do an excellent job of supplying a range of unique options in that regard.
With Donald Trump expected to win reelection, both markets list a man as the favorite to be elected – but that’s not to say there’s no room for an upset or two.
What if the incumbent does lose to a Democratic challenger in 2020? It’s not impossible – there are DNC tickets that could unseat the President. What if we’re thrown a curveball with these impeachment trials, and the President is removed from office or resigns unexpectedly?
Remember that strange, unscheduled trip Trump took to Walter Reed medical center not long ago? Might health become a deciding factor in an upset win for women?
Trying to imagine the various combinations of candidates and the circumstances under which they could win is where this gets fun. Then there’s the issue of finding value. Are you better off betting on a woman to win the presidency at +350, or making individual wagers on Elizabeth Warren (+380) or Hillary Clinton (+3300) instead?
It’s still early enough in the election cycle for all sorts of unexpected twists and turns to spring up -– who knows what will happen?! Let’s see what MyBookie has in store for us in the gender-based 2020 election betting markets.
Gender of the Next US President
MyBookie Betting Lines
- Wager Odds
- Man -500
- Woman +350
The Presidential Frontrunners
The probability of the next President of the United States being a man is extremely high. Not only is the incumbent – and favorite to win it all in 2020 – male, but three of the top four candidates on the Democratic side are as well.
Here are MyBookie’s betting lines for the five favorites to win the Presidential election:
- Donald Trump (-250)
- Elizabeth Warren (+380)
- Joe Biden (+700)
- Bernie Sanders (+1000)
- Pete Buttigieg (+1000)
It’s also worth noting that the odds posted for the Democratic nominee tell a different story. Instead of Elizabeth Warren leading the pack on the DNC side, it’s Joe Biden (+280) favored to represent the party, followed by Pete Buttigieg (+300), and Senator Warren (+350).
This just highlights what will undoubtedly plague the Democratic Party for years to come: their candidates who are capable of winning the nomination don’t match up well against Donald Trump, and the ones that could win the general election are less likely to earn the DNC’s nomination.
The oddsmakers seem to believe that the Massachusetts Senator would fare better in the general election than in the primaries – with which I tend to agree. In the primaries, I see her getting squeezed between Bernie on the left and Mayor Pete or Joe Biden on the right.
The progressive voters have largely bailed on Warren since she announced a gradual roll-out for Medicare for All, which leaves the Senator competing with the other two for the remaining college-educated, predominantly white, moderates.
With the Democratic Party singularly focused on beating Trump, most of the democrats who don’t vote progressive with Sanders (or Andrew Yang), will likely consolidate behind Biden. Unless, of course, something significant shakes up the field and opens a path forward for Elizabeth Warren.
She has a progressive background that can appeal to at least a portion of Bernie Sanders’s supporters, should he be forced to drop out – either due to health or the DNC shutting him out again. Warren has also shown the moderates that she’ll pivot more to the center when necessary, which could win her favor with the donor class of the Democratic Party.
Let’s say Joe Biden has another ten public meltdowns or embarrassing moments, and one finally sticks to him. Or maybe he’s forced to testify before the Senate during the impeachment trial – and that doesn’t go well.
It’s not a foregone conclusion that his supporters will jump to Buttigieg. Mayor Pete has been getting awful press lately due to his McKinsey background and tone-deaf responses to subjects like health care and free college tuition. If Biden withdraws before Iowa, Warren could see a significant spike in her numbers just in time for the first caucuses/primaries.
From there, the momentum could carry her to the nomination. Of all the top contenders, Elizabeth Warren is the only one I see salvaging a decent percentage of the disenfranchised Bernie voters, once the DNC pulls the rug out from under the progressive Senator.
I am convinced that Hillary Clinton is just biding her time, waiting for the perfect moment to announce she’s joining the race . She’s been in the press quite a bit lately and vocal about her feelings on the 2020 election.
In early December, Clinton was a guest on The Howard Stern Show, where she sat down for over two hours and came across as more relatable and human than ever before.
Sure, there were a few clips of her and Howard mocking things like Medicare for All that didn’t play well in progressive circles, but overall the interview was positive for her image.
If Joe Biden falters and the DNC can’t find a moderate to represent the party, I strongly suspect they’ll turn to Hillary Clinton before giving the nomination to Bernie Sanders.
At the moment, the impeachment proceedings appear to be working in Donald Trump’s favor . The investigation and public hearings have made almost zero impact on the polls – voters who wanted him removed from office to begin with still do, and his supporters haven’t been swayed at all.
If anything, the Ukraine scandal has only convinced them that the President is a victim and being unfairly targeted by bitter Dems. Whatever the case, without the Republican electorate supporting impeachment, it’s nearly impossible to imagine at least 20 GOP Senators joining the Democrats in voting to remove Trump.
However, this is Washington DC we’re talking about. Remembering back to 2016, the Republican establishment wanted nothing to do with Donald Trump. They tried stopping him from taking over the party at every turn while he continually steamrolled their preferred candidates. What if the GOP Senators pull the ultimate act of betrayal and blindside the President with a surprise vote to remove him?!
Not only does that drastically change the complexion of the 2020 general election – making it easier for Democrats to take the White House – but it opens the door for another female candidate. Without Trump representing the Republican Party, Nikki Haley would immediately become a favorite for the GOP nomination.
Gender of Next Vice President
MyBookie Betting Lines
- Wager Odds
- Man -260
- Woman +200
Once again, the betting odds favor a man becoming the next Vice President of the United States – but by a significantly lesser margin than the next President. Since Donald Trump is the favorite to win reelection, that puts Mike Pence back in charge of the Senate.
However, if Donald Trump is upset in 2020, it’s extremely likely that the next VP will be a woman. The Democratic electorate isn’t going to accept a ticket with two white men. That doesn’t necessarily mean the choice will be a woman either, but the odds are greatly improved.
Is the Democratic Presidential Nominee a Man?
Despite what MyBookie’s odds may say currently, the two DNC candidates with the best chances of winning the nomination – just based on voter support (without shenanigans) — are Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders. Biden continues to poll especially well with the elderly and African American voters, while Sanders dominates the youth vote and working-class electorate.
Should either of these men win the nomination, their Vice President will need to be a person of color, a woman, or both. Elizabeth Warren would be a popular choice, especially for Biden, who may need her to appease the progressive wing of the party. Senator Kamala Harris would be another strong choice, after cutting her own presidential campaign short.
Bernie’s choice for a Vice President is more challenging to predict. On the one hand, it might not want another staunch progressive on his ticket if he needs support from the moderate faction of the party; but on the other hand, he probably won’t want one of the DNC’s approved centrist candidates. Some potential picks might be Stacey Abrams, Tammy Duckworth, or Catherine Cortez Mastro.
Is the Democratic Presidential Nominee a Woman?
If the Democrats nominate Elizabeth Warren or Hillary Clinton, the choice for a Vice President is wide open. Since they’re both white, I would expect the DNC to look for a candidate with a different ethnic background. One exception might be Pete Buttigieg, who – while still white – is at least gay.
While a male presidential nominee all but guarantees a female VP pick, the reverse is not also true. The Democrats may choose to run an all-woman ticket – especially against an opponent as polarizing and divisive as Donald Trump.
I think the Vice-Presidential nominees that make sense for either Warren or Clinton are Cory Booker, Julian Castro, Sherrod Brown, Kamala Harris, Amy Klobuchar, and Tom Steyer.
My Favorite Gender-Based Bets
Based on the betting lines, I’ll probably only wager on the genders of the next President and Vice President if I believe a woman can win. There are three factors that I’ll be observing to decide how I bet:
- Will Hillary Clinton join the race?
- Is Bernie Sanders outperforming expectations and poll numbers after Super Tuesday?
- If Joe Biden drops out, will Elizabeth Warren draw a substantial percentage of his supporters?
If Bernie is winning early primaries and the establishment democrats and media are in full panic mode – calling him a Russian asset or something worse (see Jeremy Corbyn in the UK) — I’ll put some money on a woman to be the next President. That will signal to me that Hillary is going to join the race soon.
Should Joe Biden falter earlier than expected, with Warren seeing a surge from his supporters, I’ll make the same bet. However, if Senator Sanders sweeps the primaries on a wave of progressive enthusiasm too massive for the DNC to stop, I’ll wager on the next Vice President being a woman instead.
In fact, the bet on a female Vice President is my favorite. Of all the Democratic candidates, Bernie Sanders consistently polls the best against Donald Trump head-to-head. There aren’t many tickets the DNC can put together that will beat the incumbent President.