gravatar

(24) Texas Christian vs. Texas Tech Pick – CFB Week 3

The Thursday night (7:30pm ET) game of the week for week 3 of the 2013 college football season features an in-state, and Big 12 rivalry with the 24th ranked TCU horned Frogs (1-1) traveling to Lubbock, TX to take on the Texas Tech Red Raiders (2-0). TCU opened their season with a tough 37-27 loss at LSU, but rebounded with a 38-17 win over Southeast Louisiana in week 2. Texas Tech already has their offense in high gear this season, demolishing SMU 41-23 in week one and running over Stephen F. Austin 61-13 in week two.

This game will open conference play for both teams, and TCU will head into the contest without starting quarterback Casey Pachall. Sophomore Trevone Boykin, a dual-threat QB will be under center for the Horned Frogs. TCU only led their FCS opponent SE Louisiana by 3 points at halftime last week; they will have to play better this week against an explosive Tech team if they want to avoid a 1-2 start. Boykin, who led TCU to a 3-6 record as a starter last season after Pachall was suspended, must play better than he did last year when he was the 3rd lowest rated passer in the conference. Boykin played well in the game against Texas Tech last season, throwing for 332 yards and 4 TDs. TCU was expected to have one of the top defenses in the nation this season, but the jury is still out after two sub-par performances to open the season including last week when QB Bryan Bennett ran and passed for 132 yards each in a closer than expected win for TCU.

Texas Tech will rely on freshman walk-on Baker Mayfield to run Coach Kliff Kingsbury’s version of the air-raid offense, so far he has thrown for 780 yards (3rd most in FBS) and 7 TDs with no INTs and a 71.1 completion percentage. He also has the ability to run the ball, with 114 yards and 1 TD on 21 carries. The Red Raiders rank 2nd among FBS teams with 453.5 YPG through the air, and 9th in the country in scoring. The Tech pass defense ranks 109th among FBS teams with 337.5 YPG allowed.

Texas Christian vs. Texas Tech Spread, Line and Betting Odds:

Spread:
Texas Christian University Horned Frogs +3
@Texas Tech Red Raiders -3

Game Total:
Over 62 (-110)
Under 62 (-110)

Betting odds taken from Bovada.lv

Texas Christian vs. Texas Tech Pick

Texas Tech leads the series 29-23-3 all-time, in their first meeting as Big 12 rivals last season the Red Raiders won 56-53 in triple OT. TCU is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 conference games, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall, and in their last 7 road games the posted total has gone under 5 times. Texas Tech is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games, and the total has gone over every time in their last 6 games.The Horned Frogs are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 conference games and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games against winning teams.

These two teams are both capable of scoring points and scoring against each other in particular as evidenced by last season’s epic shootout. Boykin looked good last week, throwing for 133 yards and 2 TDs on 9-13 passing, and he has a career game against Texas Tech last season. Mayfield is red hot right now as well and TCU has not shown the dominant defensive unit that everyone expected them to field this season. This game has the makings of a shoot-out with Texas Tech struggling against the pass and playing a fast-paced game that will force TCU to throw the ball more than they otherwise might.There is no favorable trend for the line, and taking either team against the spread is too risky to recommend here. Take the over in this game as this should be a very entertaining shoot-out to open the week 3 action.

PICK= Over 62.5