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Akron vs. Toledo Spread Pick – CFB Week 13

Week 13 of the 2012 college football season kicks off with Tuesday night (7:00pm ET) action in the MAC with the Akron Zips (1-10) traveling to the Glass Bowl in Toledo, OH to take on the host Toledo Rockets (8-3) in an intra-state match up. Akron is 4-5 ATS this season, and the Zips have failed to cover in three of their last four games including a 22-14 loss to UMass in their last game on November 10 as a 14.5 point favorite. Toledo is 7-4 ATS this year, and the Rockets have covered in only two of their last five games, one of which was their 31-24 loss at Northern Illinois last week as a 10 point underdog. Akron snapped a five-game Toledo winning streak in the series last season with a 47-30 win at home to cover a 6.5 point line.

The Akron offense ranks near the bottom nationally in scoring offense at 78th with 26.4 points per game scored, but a respectable 40th in total offense with 435.8 yards per game. Quarterback Dalton Williams (3,335 yards passing, 25 TDs, 16 INTs) has been the highlight offensively for the Zips, who have no running game to speak of with a paltry 118.7 YPG average (107th among FBS teams). The defense has been even more of a sore spot for the Zips, ranking 109th in the nation in total defense with 35.7 PPG allowed and 100th in total defense with 449.2 YPG allowed.

Toledo has averaged 32.7 PPG (40th nationally) on offense this season and 455.8 YPG of total offense (31st in the nation). Southpaw quarterback Terrance Owens (2,681 yards passing, 14 TDs, 8 INTs) is an effective runner as well with 381 yards rushing and 5 TDs. The Toledo defense ranks 65th in the nation in scoring defense with 27.7 PGP allowed and a woeful 112th in total defense with 475.2 YPG allowed. Their weak spot has been pass defense, ranking 120th, dead last among FBS teams with 297.9 YPG allowed.

Akron vs. Toledo Spread, Line and Betting Odds:

Spread:

Akron Zips +19
@ Toledo Rockets -19

Game Total:

Over 63.5  (-110)
Under 63.5  (-110)

Betting odds taken from Bovada.lv

Akron vs. Toledo Pick:

Akron has a 4-1 record ATS in their last 5 road games, a 1-5 record ATS in their last 6 November games and a 2-5 record ATS in their last 7 games overall. The Rockets are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with losing records and 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 home games against teams with losing road records. The under is 6-0 in the Zips’ last 6 games overall, 6-0 in their last 6 conference games and 8-3 in their last 11 games against winning teams. The under is 4-0 in the Rockets’ last 6 games overall, 5-2 in their last 7 conference games and 4-0 in their last 4 games on field turf. The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 head-to-head meetings between the two teams; and the Zips are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings with Toledo.

The Zips are having an awful season, and cannot stop anyone on defense, but they do have an effective passing game that ranks 14th in the nation with 317.1 YPG. That gives them a decided advantage against the Toledo secondary which ranks dead last in the nation giving up almost 300 YPG through the air. This should allow Akron to stay in the game, and with an almost there touchdown cushion they are a good value pick against the recent trends in this series. Take Akron to cover here.

PICK = Akron +19