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Arizona St. vs. Colorado Spread Pick – CFB Week 7

Pac-12 action this Thursday night (9:00pm ET) gets week 7 of the 2012 college football season rolling with the Arizona State Sun Devils (4-1) traveling to Boulder, CO to take on the Colorado Buffaloes (1-4). ASU is 4-1 ATS this season, failing to cover only their one outright loss as a 3.5 point underdog in a 24-20 loss at Missouri in week 3. Colorado is 1-4 ATS this season, covering only their one victory of the season, a 35-34 win at Washington St. in week 4 as a 18.5 point underdog.

The Arizona St. offense has been a very prolific unit so far this season, averaging 38.4 points per game to rank 23rd among FBS teams, and 456.2 total yards per game to rank 34th nationally in total offense. The Sun Devil defense has been ever more effective as a unit, ranking 12th in scoring defense with 13.6 PPG allowed and 11th in total defense with 276.2 YPG allowed. Teams have flat out been unable to move the ball through the air against ASU, with only 137 YPG allowed the Sun Devils rank 4th in the nation in pass defense.

Colorado has had a dismal performance this season on both sides of the ball, ranking near the bottom of all FBS teams in most of the major categories. The Buffaloes rank 102nd in scoring offense with 21.6 PPG, and 101st in total offense with 223.8 YPG. Their defense has been even worse, ranking 110th in total defense with 474.4 YPG allowed, and 118th in scoring defense with 39.4 PPG allowed.

Arizona St. vs. Colorado Spread, Line and Betting Odds:

Spread:

Arizona St. Sun Devils -23
@ Colorado Buffaloes +23

Game Total:

Over 57 (-110)
Under 57 (-110)

Betting odds taken from Bovada.lv

Arizona St. vs. Colorado Pick:

Arizona St. has gone 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on grass, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall but 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games. The Buffaloes have gone 4-11 ATS in their last 15 conference games, 7-20-1 AST in their last 28 October games and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games against winning teams. The over is 14-5 in ASU’s last 19 games overall and 10-3 in their last 13 conference games. The under is 5-2 in Colorado’s last 7 October games, and 5-2 in their last 7 home games. The two teams met last season in Tempe, and ASU rolled to a 48-14 win, covering a 32 point line and going over the total of 56.5.

These two teams are heading in opposite directions and the matchup for Arizona State is a decidedly favorable one. The one phase of the game that Colorado somewhat excels at is the passing game with quarterback Jordan Webb (961 yards passing, 7 TDs and 4 INTs), but ASU has shut down opposing quarterbacks this season. ASU held Cal to a measly 126 passing yards and a 32% completion rate last week in their 27-17 win on the road. In contrast, Colorado allowed 7 yards per pass paly to UCLA last week; Arizona St. QB Taylor Kelly (9.4 YPA) and his receivers including Christopher Coyle (13 yards per catch) should be able to have a field day against the weak Colorado secondary. Colorado will be lucky to get on the scoreboard against a very stingy ASU defense, a combination that should add up to ASU covering the high spread here. Take the Sun Devils to cover in this game.

PICK = ASU -23