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Auburn vs. LSU Pick – CFB September 19th

Week three of the 2015 college football season features a Saturday afternoon (2:30 pm ET) brawl in the bayou pitting two top 25 SEC teams in the 18th ranked Auburn Tigers (2-0) and the host 13th ranked LSU Tigers (1-0) from Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, LA. Auburn finished last season with an 8-5 record and concluded the season with a 34-31 loss to Wisconsin in the Outback Bowl. LSU also finished with an 8-5 record last season and ended their season with a bowl game loss, in their case a 31-29 loss to Notre Dame in the Liberty Bowl.

Auburn opened their season with a 31-24 win over Louisville in the Georgia Dome, and followed up last week with a too-close-for-comfort 27-20 win over Jacksonville St. at home last week.Quarterback Jeremy Johnson, who some had been calling a Heisman contender and comparing to Cam Newton prior to the season for his combination of size and athleticism, has struggled mightily through the first two games of the season. Johnson has already shown a propensity for turnovers, throwing 5 INTs in the first two games of the season.

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The Tigers opened their season with a 21-19 win over SEC rival Mississippi St. on the road after their season opener against McNeese St. was cancelled due to weather. Running back Leonard Fournette is the key to LSU’s offense, he has run for at least 100 yards and a TD in each of the Tigers’ last 3 games including the bowl game against Notre Dame at the end of last season.

Auburn vs. LSU Spread, Line and Betting Odds:

Spread:
Auburn Tigers +7
@ LSU Tigers -7

Game Total:
Over 48.5 (-110)
Under 48.5 (-110)

Betting odds taken from Bovada.lv

Auburn vs. LSU Pick:

Auburn is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 SEC games, 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games overall and 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games on grass. LSU is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall and 6-13-1 in their last 20 games following a straight up win. The under is 3-1-2 in Auburn’s last 6 games overall, 3-1-1 in their last 5 games against winning teams and 3-1-1 in their last 5 games following an ATS loss. The under is 6-0 in LSU’s last 6 SEC games, 6-1 in their last 7 games overall and 5-1 in their last 6 games on grass. In head-to-head play the home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings between the two teams and the favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings. The under is 11-4 in the last 15 meetings between the two teams. Auburn has not won outright at LSU since 1999.

The trends against the spread do not look favorable for either team, but they are quite favorable for the home team and the favorite, which in this case is obviously LSU. The total is a tempting play here, and there is a strong trend in favor of betting the under for both teams in recent play. The call here is that LSU should be able to handle an Auburn team that has not overwhelmed anyone so far this season and has lived dangerously against teams that are far from LSU’s equa but they may not cover a touchdown. This could be a very tight game, as many SEC games are. The Auburn Tigers will likely see their luck run out in Baton Rouge, but the safer play here is the under with an underachieving Auburn offense, a stoudt LSU defense and a recent trend for both teams of the under paying out.

PICK-Under 48.5