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Ball State vs. Toledo Over/Under Pick – CFB Week 11

Week 11 of the 2012 College Football Season kicks off with Tuesday night (8:00pm ET) Mid-American Conference action featuring the Ball State Cardinals (6-2) traveling to the Glass Bowl in Toledo, OH to take on the 25th ranked Toledo Rockets (8-1). Ball State is 7-2 ATS this season and has covered in their last 3 games, including a 30-22 win at Army in their last game on October 27th when they covered a 3 point line. Toledo is 6-3 ATS this season and has failed to cover in 2 of their last 3 games, including their last game on October 27th, a 25-20 win at Buffalo as a 7.5 point favorite.

The Ball State offense ranks 41st among FBS teams in scoring offense with 33.7 points per game and 22nd in total offense with 473.2 yards per game. Junior quarterback Keith Wenning (17 TD passes, 7 INTs and 2,425 yards passing) has started for three seasons and has proven to be a very consistent performer for the Cardinals. The Cardinals defense has not lived up to their end of the bargain this season, ranking 101st among FBS teams in scoring defense (33.3 PPG ) and 109th in total defense (465.2 YPG).

Toledo dual-threat quarterback Terrance Owens (2,203 yards passing, 13 TDs, 264 yards rushing, 4 TDs) directs an offense that ranks 34th among FBS teams with 34.3 PPG and 32nd in total offense with 454.7 YPG. The Rockets also have struggled on defense this season, ranking 61st in scoring defense with 26.7 PPG allowed, but a dismal 108th in total defense with 465 YPG allowed. Their Achilles heel has been pass defense, with 287.8 YPG allowed through the air to rank 114th in the nation in that category.

Ball State vs. Toledo Spread, Line and Betting Odds:

Spread:

Ball State Cardinals +6.5
@ Toledo Rockets -6.5

Game Total:

Over 67.5 (-110)
Under 67.5 (-110)

Betting odds taken from Bovada.lv

Ball State vs. Toledo Pick:

Ball State has gone 12-3ATS in their last 15 games overall, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 conference games and 37-14 ATS in their last 51 road games. Toledo is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 conference games, but 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Tuesday games. The over is 7-1 in Ball State’s last 8 road games, 8-2 in their last 10 conference games and 10-3-1 in their last 14 games overall. The over is 5-1 in Toledo’s last 6 games against winning teams, 4-1 in their last 5 November games and 8-3 in their last 11 home games. In head-to-head play, the favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings, the road team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings and Ball State is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings. Toledo has won the last 3 games in the series, including a 45-28 win in Muncie last season to cover a 14.5 point line.

To say that both of these teams have struggled to defend the pass this season is putting it mildly to say the least, and with both teams having the ability to throw the ball effectively there figures to be quite a bit of scoring in this game. The over is a very strong recent trend for both teams, especially in conference play. That trend figures to continue here as each team will seek to exploit the weak spot of their opponent Toledo has the upper hand in this series, but the Rockets have been weak against the spread recently and are not a strong pick to cover here. The better bet is to go with the trend and bet the over/under here. Expect to see a lot of scoring in this game, the over is the play to make here.

PICK = Over 67.5