One of the top matchups for this upcoming week 12 of the 2010 college football season will be this Friday (10:15pm ET) when the number 3-ranked Boise State Broncos (10-0, 6-0 WAC) travel to Nevada to take on the number 19-ranked Wolf pack (10-1, 5-1) in a matchup ,of the top two teams in the Western Athletic Conference. Boise St. rolled last week over Fresno St. 51-0 while Nevada stomped New Mexico St. 52-6.
Both teams possess explosive offenses led by established signal callers, Heisman Trophy contender Kellen Moore for Boise St. and Colin Kaepernick for Nevada. Moore has thrown for over 2,900 yards with 28 touchdowns and only 5 interceptions to go along with a sparkling 71.8$ completion percentage. Kaepernick has been prolific both through the air and on the ground, throwing for over 2,400 yards and 19 touchdowns and running for 981 yards and 16 more scores. The Wolf pack has the Edge over Boise St. when it comes to running the football, with an average of 304.4 yards per game compared to the Bronco’s 205.4 YPG. Running back Vai Taua, with 1,241 yards rushing and 19 TDs on the ground is an explosive threat tout of the backfield that the Broncos will have to account for on every play.
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On defense Nevada is much more vulnerable than they are on offense. The Wolf pack pass defense has been porous with an average of 249.9 YPG allowed, ranking 103rd in the nation. The explosive Boise St. offense is capable of shredding the Nevada secondary and the defense must play better than they have to have a chance to pull off an upset here. The Boise St. defense is number one in the country in rushing yards allowed with an average of 72.3 per game, but this is a deceiving number because very few teams run on the Broncos due to having to try to keep up with their high-octane offense that has averaged 47.9 PPG. The Broncos have also shut down their opponents where it counts most, on the scoreboard ranking second in the country with 11.5 PPG allowed.
Boise St. is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 Friday games and the over is 6-2 in those last 8 Friday games. The Broncos are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 road games and 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 games overall. In Nevada’s last 10 game sin November the over is 8-2. In head-to-head meetings Boise St. is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings between the two teams, and the favorite is 7-2 in those last 9 meetings. Boise St. has won the last 10 meetings between the two teams straight up, dating back to 1999.
Boise St. vs. Nevada Spread, Line and Betting Odds:
Boise St. Broncos -14
@ Nevada Wolf Pack +14
Over 68 (-110)
Under 68 (-110)
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Boise State vs. Nevada Betting Predictions:
Spread Prediction (Top Play) – Nevada has the offensive balance and firepower to give the Broncos a game, especially playing at home. The Wolf pack can run the ball, something Boise St. is not accustomed to seeing and if they are able to have success they can keep the powerful Boise St. offense on the sidelines and minimize the damage on that side of the ball. Nevada does not have a strong defense, and their poor secondary matches up unfavorably with Boise State’s prolific passing game, but if they have a strong game plan in offense that mixes the run in enough to keep the clock moving do not be shocked if Nevada can keep the score much closer than Boise has seen since their season-opening win over Virginia Tech.
Over/Under Prediction – Take the over here, both offenses have been very prolific and love to put the ball in the air. With Boise St. averaging 47.9 PPG and Nevada averaging 44.1 PPG, there should be no shortage of points scored. This could very well be the type of game where whoever has the ball last will win.