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Boise State vs. New Mexico Pick – NCAAF Week 6

The 19th ranked Boise State Broncos take their act on the road to face the New Mexico Lobos on Friday night. Boise State probably doesn’t like the idea of going against a triple-option offense, which have gashed them pretty good in the past. In their last seven games against them, Boise State has gone 4-3 and failed to cover the spread in all of them. The Broncos enter tonight as -17 favorites and will need to improve on their effort from last week if they want to cover the number.

Boise State won 21-10 but didn’t come close to covering the big spread of -26.5. Because of their inability to stop triple-option teams in the past, Boise State took an extended look at this offense in training camp. New Mexico beat Boise State a year ago 31-24 in Boise. It made for their biggest win of the season, and now they get them at home in New Mexico.

While Chris Petersen has the Washington Huskies firing on all cylinders, Boise State is trying to find some of that same magic. They’ve been up in the national rankings, but flirting near the back of the top 25 since Petersen departed for a more lucrative gig at Washington in Seattle. He put them on the map and now it’s time for them to get back to beating up on the top teams in college football. Beating New Mexico tonight won’t prove much, but they can advance with a perfect 5-0 record on the year.

The Lobos haven’t had a season they dreamt up in August. They already have a loss against their rival, New Mexico State, and lost to an awful Rutgers team. So, they lost to their rival and picked up a loss against their only power 5 opponent. Their best win came last week against San Jose State, a high scoring 47-41 victory. When the triple-option is rolling it can be extremely difficult to stop. San Jose State found out last week and Boise State for the last five years. It’s time for the Broncos to solve this offense, it’s been far too long of looking confused against an offense they play every year. Discover what I think about this matchup below.

Boise State Broncos vs. New Mexico Lobos NCAAF Betting Odds:

Spread:
Boise State -17(-110)
vs. New Mexico +17(-110)

Total:
Over 61.5(-110)
Under 61.5(-110)

Odds provided by Bovada.lv

Boise State vs. New Mexico Pick:

Boise State has always exerted their will against the run. The rushing defense has been top-notch, but haven’t been unable to solve the triple-option. Boise State is 3rd in the country, allowing only 72 yards per game. Their front-seven is one of the best units in college football and would match up considerably well against some good offenses. New Mexico rushed for a staggering 448 yards on San Jose State last week. All they do is run, as their quarterback, Lamar Jordon, completed only 4 balls with an interception and no touchdowns.

The Lobos are 5th in the nation in rushing, accumulating an average of 347 yards per game. They haven’t had to contend with the stingiest of defenses though, so we’ll see how they do against the Boise State Broncos. It’d be a shame if they get tricked yet again by this offense. The Lobos should be able to find some yardage in this game, but forget about 400+ yards or anything crazy like that.

Boise State has averaged 33.8 points per game this season. Their best win came against Washington State, 31-28. I was impressed with how the defense played in that game, extremely impressed. Holding Washington State to only 28 points is an accomplishment in itself. I expect the Broncos to jump out to an early lead here, forcing the Lobos to claw back on the ground. I think part of the reason Boise State looked so flat last week is because they were already getting ready to play this triple-option that New Mexico presents. The Broncos should secure a 20 or 21 point victory, so laying the points looks like a solid option in this one.

PICK: BOISE STATE -17 (-110)